NFL Divisional Round: Best bets for Commanders-Lions
Points aplenty expected for the Commanders’ visit into the Lions’ den
If it wasn’t true before, it is now - the Lions are officially the hunted.
Winning the NFC North last season was one thing, but Detroit were still sizeable underdogs to make the Super Bowl, with the powerhouse 49ers sitting in their way.
This year? Getting the coveted first-round bye in the NFC Playoffs puts the Lions in a figurative role of favorite, something that’s reflected in a literal point spread that’s currently larger than any of the games of Wild Card Weekend. A very early opener of -10.5 moved back to -8.5 to -9.5 and back down again.
The underdog Commanders are living their own dream season, frequently pulling out games that could have gone either way. If Dan Quinn encountered a Genie at some point early in the season, he was granted the following wishes:
Beating the Giants 21-18 without scoring a touchdown
The Hail Mary miracle win over the Bears
The Saints’ failed 2-point conversion
DeVonta Smith’s drop that allowed for an 11-point fourth-quarter comeback win over the Eagles
Raheem Morris apparently saving timeouts for next season, helping the Commanders to an playoff-clinching overtime Week 17 win
Baker Mayfield and Jalen McMillan fumbling a handoff, and the Buccaneers botching the snap count on 3rd-and-1 from the Commanders’ 11-yard line
My understanding is that you only get three wishes, which opens the door for the infinite possibility of more answered prayers for a Commanders team that didn’t disprove the charge that they’ve had a charmed season. Washington fans shouldn’t care how they got here, but they’ll need a lot more luck to beat Detroit, and a granted wish or two even to cover.
Commanders @ Lions (-8.5, 55.5)
The point total for this game is startling.
55.5 is up there for a playoff game, but if neither team brings a defense that the betting market can be confident in, that’s what you’re going to get.
Beyond the obvious - the expectation of a lot of points, a high total means that each point scored is less valuable relative to the point spread. Scoring 60% of the points in a 56-point game means you’re winning 34-22, whereas that same ratio equates to 25-17 in a game with 42 points.
If the Lions are going to cover a big spread, they probably need to score 35 points. In their last game, Detroit scored just 10 points in their first seven drives, and still finished with 31. It snapped a run of four games where the Lions’ offense scored between 34 and 42 points. Now they face a defense that finished middle-of-the-pack in both yards per play allowed and points per game. Coincidentally, the latter number was 22.8 points per game - a number that didn’t come from playing offenses like the Lions (at home) for 17 games.
Detroit’s defense has famously been under the microscope because of the number of injuries the unit has suffered. They have an excuse. Part of that stems from a Week 14 primetime game against the Packers, where the Lions were missing six key defenders, but four of them are back for the playoffs, Plus, in the meantime, the players that have been forced into bigger roles are finding their footing under defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, especially when not having to face multi-dimensional offenses like the Packers, Bills, and 49ers. Knowing that the Commanders’ key forces are Terry McLaurin and Daniels’ legs, with two weeks to prepare, this is an easier assignment.
Allowing just nine points to the Vikings in Week 18 was aided by the Lions stopping Minnesota on fourth down - the general category that matters most in handicapping the potential success of the Lions on a game-to-game basis. Only the Vikings had a better fourth-down percentage on defense, and only five had a higher percentage on offense.
One of those were the Commanders, who have converted the same number of fourth downs as the Lions (1.3 per game). Naturally, the driver of Washington’s success on these high-leverage plays is Jayden Daniels. This is a different methodology than the Lions who execute their fourth down success via the play-calling of Ben Johnson and the power of a veteran offensive line. You never know which Lion is going to get the ball, and even if you do, best of luck.
With the expectation of a high-scoring game, both teams should continue to be willing to risk a turnover-on-downs in order to keep possession of the ball. With David Montgomery expected back on Saturday, and the advantage of not having to play through the din of the fans at Ford Field, the Lions’ can out-perform the expectations that already make them a big favorite.
With exception of whoever wins the Super Bowl, the Commanders and their fans have the most to be excited about going from this season to next, but this week, they’re playing in a weight class that they’ve only experienced when taking on the Eagles and Ravens.
While they lost by just seven to the Ravens, they were out-gained 484-305. Then in Philadelphia, they were out-gained 434-264. In the rematch with the Eagles, the Commanders trailed 21-7 when Jalen Hurts was ruled out, and in each of these three big games, Washington trailed by double-digits in the fourth quarter.
Earlier this season, we’d be highly concerned with the possibility of the Commanders squeezing through the backdoor late against the Lions’ defense, but with the attitude in Detroit being about never letting up at home, an offense that’s good on fourth down, and rarely turns the ball over otherwise, they can salt away a game late.
Pick: Lions (-8.5, -112 at DraftKings)
Dyami Brown: Over 35.5 receiving yards (-115 at Bet365)
If the Commanders are trailing - and even if they’re not, Jayden Daniels will have to throw it to somebody other than McLaurin. Lately, the someone that’s emerged is Dyami Brown, the third-year receiver who’s shown enough potential to hang on the Washington roster despite just 29 catches in his first three seasons.
Even this year, Brown had just 16 catches prior to December, but in his last five games (including playoffs), he’s broken through, catching 19 of 23 targets. That hasn’t always translated into big yardage, which keeps this total down, but 89 yards for Brown last week and a probable need to push the ball down the field expeditiously, means even more opportunity to put up numbers. Brown’s speed makes him a deep threat, so all the yardage may come in one dose.
Brian Robinson: Over 46.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 at Bet365)
At 34.5, Robinson’s rushing yardage is low for a player who was given 10 carries last week, and who may be leaned on to calm things down when the Ford Field festives are in full throat. It’s much easier to run (22nd in the NFL) against the Lions than it is against the Buccaneers (4th), so even eight carries could add up to 35+ yards. Surprisingly, Robinson was a factor in the pass game as well last week, catching four passes on five impromptu targets from Daniels.
Maybe Robinson clears both 34.5 on the ground and his assigned line of 8.5 through the air, but it’s more likely that he produces far above expectation in one or the other for a cumulative over.
Jared Goff: Over 270.5 passing yards (-110 at Bet365)
Whether they win easy or (more likely) need to close the game out late by keeping possession, the aggressive Lions’ offense should be throwing early and often against a Commanders’ defense that was 23rd in opponent yards per completion. For all the excitement over Washington snapping their playoff victory drought, few have mentioned the oddity of Baker Mayfield throwing just 18 times despite having great success when doing so, completing 15, for better than 10 yards per attempt. Ben Johnson won’t be as shy to have Goff throw, and if the defense hasn’t plugged all its holes, he’ll keep chucking it late.
Sam LaPorta: Under 4.5 receptions (-105 at Bet365)
At 3.9 receptions per game, the Commanders have been very good against opposing tight ends this season, allowing the third-fewest receptions at that position. LaPorta’s production has been streaky this season, with a 4-game run of no more than three catches following by a streak of five to the over, but overall he averaged 3.75 receptions per game.
It’s likely not a coincidence that LaPorta’s targets ticked up in the final three games without David Montgomery, but another of the Lions’ threats near the line of scrimmage is back, so unless this game plays out similarly to the 45-42 Bills game, LaPorta may see fewer targets than at the end of the season.
Tim Patrick: Longest reception - Over 11.5 yards (-115 at Bet365)
One of Goff’s other options is Tim Patrick, who had an excellent run from mid-November to mid-December, adding between 26 and 55 yards of offensive support in five straight games. That production dried up a little in the last three games, but he was still seeing the field over 50% of the time.
When Patrick was a factor, he caught a pass of 12+ yards in each of those five games, so while a second catch for a total of 15+ yards might be big leap, just one medium-length catch - for a little more than a first down - is certainly doable for the 31-year-old veteran who might have needed the week off.
David Montgomery: Over 14.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)
Perhaps saving the best for last, Montgomery’s injury might have helped keep a secret - that he was becoming a reliable element to the Lions’ passing game. In the Lions’ first nine games, Montgomery caught just 18 passes (on only 20 targets). Maybe OC Johnson did some self-scouting, noting that Jahmyr Gibbs is the tailback that opponents expect Goff to throw to, but Montgomery caught 18-of-18 targets in the five games (3.6) before he got hurt, for no fewer than 20 receiving yards in any game. If Montgomery’s as healthy as it seems, he should be in the mix for somewhere near that recent minimum.
Terry McLaurin: Anytime touchdown (+125, FanDuel)
Stopping the Commanders’ top target between the 20s is one thing, but preventing McLaurin from scoring, when eyes have to be on Jayden Daniels near the goal line, is another. Quietly, only Ja’Marr Chase had more receiving touchdowns in the regular season. Do you think Chase, Mike Evans, Tee Higgins, or Justin Jefferson would have +125 odds to score in a game with a total of 55.5? With a number that high, even though Washington’s a sizeable underdog, they’re still expected to score, and the Lions’ secondary doesn’t have anyone who can match up with McLaurin in man-coverage in the red zone.
Austin Ekeler: Anytime touchdown (+250, Bet365)
The Commanders’ human bowling ball got more carries than expected last Sunday, as well as the three catches that we thought he might, in just Ekeler’s second game back from a concussion. Again, in what’s expected to be a high-scoring game, Ekeler getting three chances in the red zone last week indicates he’s almost as likely to score as Robinson, who comes with half the payout.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: Anytime touchdown (-125, DraftKings)
It’s not the +130 payout offered with McLaurin, but St. Brown’s 12 touchdowns this season combined with being on the team expected to score 30+ in this game, is how you go from an implied win probability of 43.5% (+130) to 55.6% (-125). Mix in that St. Brown scored in 64.7% of the Lions’ games this season and there’s a quantitative edge to backing him to score against a team - like McLaurin - who can’t match up near the goal line.
Tim Patrick: Anytime touchdown (+425, DraftKings)
Remember that good stretch for Patrick that we discussed before? He finished that 5-game stretch with back-to-back touchdowns, where the 6’5 target had Goff’s attention in the red zone. The Commanders’ secondary has their hands full with everything else the Lions are capable of doing, and there’s nobody back there with the size to stop any big target the Lions might utilize.