NFL Divisional Round: Best bets for Texans-Chiefs
What to do with a massive line change off a recent rematch
There’s no sugar-coating it (unless we sprinkle some glucose in the form of a decent player props effort), Wild Card Weekend was a disaster against the spread. In this week’s THE WINDOW Podcast, we broke down a failure to follow the obvious value with the Texans, saw four games fall the wrong way on seemingly every high-leverage play* and turnover, and finally, a massive misread on how Sam Darnold would play on Monday night.
*How different do the following games go - against the spread - if one improbable play goes differently?:
PIT-BAL: On 3rd and 13, the Steelers hold Ravens to a field goal instead of a TD
DEN-BUF: Ty Johnson doesn’t “stay inbounds” in the end zone on 4th down
GB-PHI: The opening kickoff fumble isn’t given to the Eagles
WSH-TB: Baker Mayfield and the Bucs execute either a handoff OR a snap
If there was a seventh first-round playoff game, we probably would have lost that too, so when it was announced that the first game of Divisional Round Weekend would provide a choice of either, A) Fade the Chiefs in the playoffs, or B) Lay more than a touchdown with the Chiefs, a deep breath was in order, since neither option is a comfortable way to try to snap an unfathomable, unprecedented skid.
Texans @ Chiefs (-8.5, 41.5)
This could be a quick handicap of this point spread market, if we wanted to.
In Week 16, the Texans visited the Chiefs on a Saturday afternoon. The point spread was Chiefs -3.5. What’s happened since then to move this line a massive five points? Are the events of Christmas Day to blame for such a shift in perception?
The Chiefs handled the Steelers in Pittsburgh, but that was in the midst of a 5-game losing streak that exposed Mike Tomlin’s group to be mediocre at best. In the back-half of the Christmas doubleheader, Houston got blown out by the Ravens, but they were missing key run-stoppers, Folo Fatukasi, Azeez Al-Shaair, and Denico Autry, and it was their first game without Jimmie Ward (after already losing Jalen Pitre for the season).
Week 18 was irrelevant to both sides, and the Texans eventually outlasted the Chargers last week in a game that was in doubt for longer than the final score suggests.
We track a team’s rating in the betting market for a reason, so we can understand what the perception of each side is and how it’s changed. As a 3-point home underdog to a slightly above-average Chargers’ team, the Texans had the worst rating of any team in the playoffs. Their first-round win didn’t do anything to change the perception of them.
Meanwhile, whether it’s due to snapping their 7-game ATS losing streak by covering a spread at Cleveland (despite just 4.1 yards per play), or the win in Pittsburgh, the Chiefs are back up into at least the high-60s of our estimated market ratings. Being in this range caused the Chiefs to lose all those games for their bettors - despite being 6-1 straight-up in that time - because the line was just too high for a team whose great at winning, but, with the 22nd-best red zone touchdown percentage, isn’t great at winning by margin.
It’s worth noting that in that Week 16 matchup, the Chiefs took advantage of three first downs due to penalties (and had a positive Texans’ drive extinguished on a shaky offensive pass interference). Plus, they picked off CJ Stroud twice (to zero Chiefs’ turnovers), but still only won by eight. As usual, they closed out the game with kneels in an area of the field where they could have scored if the game called for it.
As we look forward to the rematch, the Texans’ pass rushers need to do more than the zero sacks they produced the first time around, but Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson should have a positive matchup against the Chiefs’ trouble spot - offensive tackle.
As is the case with most games in today’s NFL, the game will come down to success on third and fourth down. With a 54% Success Rate on those downs, the Texans matched Mahomes’ and company (62%) in Week 16. Houston has proven that they can extend drives, but it may be difficult for them to punch in a score.
This is relatively uncharted territory for the Chiefs - only once in the “Mahomes Era” have they had a playoff bye week AND took Week 18 off (2020: 22-17 win over the Browns). I expect Kansas City’s early offensive script to be good, but if doesn’t translate to 7-10 early points, the Chiefs - not great in the red zone themselves, are even more likely to find themselves in a low-scoring game, where the defense will have to shutdown the opponent to create space on the scoreboard.
With little faith in the Texans’ offense, but our unwillingness to lay a big number with a Chiefs’ team that struggles to cover a spread when rated this high, we’ll turn to a team total for our best bet - fading the Chiefs’ ability and need to score more than 25.5 points.
Pick: Chiefs - Team total: Under 25.5 points (-108 at FanDuel)
CJ Stroud: Longest pass completion - Under 35.5 yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Chamarri Conner, the Chiefs’ nickel corner, missed the Week 16 matchup, and - until he got hurt on a touchdown catch - Tank Dell had one of the best games of his career out of the slot. Conner made a cameo appearance in Week 18, just to get some live reps in before the playoffs, so he’ll be back to help shut down whatever the Texans were able to exploit the first time around. Trust in Conner also allows for more attention to be put on the Texans’ best receiver, Nico Collins, who had seven catches for 60 yards against the Chiefs.
While Stroud and Collins may crawl over their totals on the sheer volume of having to lean on the pass game if they get behind again in the second half, an explosive pass play isn’t likely, since John Metchie, Xavier Hutchinson, Robert Woods, and Dalton Schultz don’t offer the speed that Dell did, while there should regularly be a safety over the top on Collins’ side.
Patrick Mahomes: Over 4.5 rush attempts (+110 at FanDuel)
It’s playoff time, and Mahomes has had all kinds of time to get his annual ankle injury healed up. Even in the first meeting, six days after hurting his leg, Mahomes took off twice early - once on third-and-long and then for the Chiefs’ first touchdown. If the Texans are able to get pressure on Mahomes, he’ll be happy to take off down the field.
For his playoff career, Mahomes has had five or more rushing attempts in 10 of his last 14 career playoff games, many of which he played on a heavily-taped ankle.
Marquise Brown: Over 40.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)
It took a while for the Chiefs to get their big offseason acquisition into the mix, and while “Hollywood” Brown hasn’t had monster games as he gets acclimated, he’s getting enough looks. He caught five of eight targets for 45 yards in his season debut against Houston, and four of seven for 46 yards days later in Pittsburgh.
Brown went from 20 snaps to 25 snaps from one game to the next, and there’s reason to believe that number should increase. 15 targets on 45 total snaps shows that Mahomes wants to get Brown the ball, and the fact he’s only caught nine of those 15, from one of the best of all time, means there’s room for improvement there as well, leaving plenty of leeway with a relatively low receiving yardage total.
Kareem Hunt: Anytime touchdown (+195, FanDuel)
If we knew for sure who the goal-line running back is for the Chiefs, the odds would be around even money for “Tailback A” to score. With Isaiah Pacheco back in the mix, there are questions about who fills that role, and therefore, the odds for both he and Kareem Hunt are close to 2-to-1.
The last time (Christmas!) the Chiefs played a real game, both Pacheco and Hunt got carries on their first drive, but Hunt was the one who was given the goal-line touches, scoring on the second of two cracks on a key Chiefs’ touchdown at the start of the second half.
In the five games since Pacheco returned, Hunt has nine red zone touches to Pacheco’s three, and he’s proven reliable - all Andy Reid is asking from his running backs - in his second go-around with the Chiefs.
Xavier Worthy: Anytime touchdown (+210, FanDuel)
Against the Steelers, Worthy scored on a pass from Mahomes. That’s not an exciting or notable sentence in and of itself, but the key is that Worthy was lined up in the backfield next to Mahomes in the shotgun. The play was clearly designed for Worthy from the 7-yard line. A week earlier, against the Texans on first-and-goal, Worthy was Mahomes’ first look for a touchdown on a simple out route from the same spot on the field.
Add in Worthy’s explosiveness deep and the potential for a handoff, there are too many ways for Worthy to score to leave him off the card.
Justin Watson: Anytime touchdown (+900, DraftKings)
We cashed a big number with Watson to score against the Steelers as part of a wonderful Christmas time of betting, having seen that Watson got a look in the end zone against the Texans, even though that connection was missed. Admittedly, 13-to-1 isn’t the same as +900, but Watson’s still a good candidate to score and worth inclusion on the card, just in case.