NFL Futures betting: Award market midseason update
What’s worth adding to an award market portfolio?
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
Remember the ol’ days, when people watched sitcoms - the shows you binge now in three-to-infinity episode increments via your streaming services? You’d tune in at 8pm, with a longer memory than we’re capable of these days, remembering what happened last week, looking for a new development with Jerry, George, Elaine, and Kramer, Ross and Rachel, the Simpson family, or the gang at The Office, and many more. Every once in a while, though, it would become clear that all you were getting was the dreaded clip show - a collection of moments that we’d already seen.
This is that episode of THE WINDOW…
…or is it?
Update from THE WINDOW:
Speaking of reminders (or commercials), as we’ve discussed at length on the podcast, this 2024-‘25 season is free for all as a trial for readers and listeners to decide whether they want THE WINDOW for next season.
We’re up over 500 free subscribers, and if everyone submitted their “PLEDGE” (essentially reserving a subscription price that won’t be charged until next summer), we could announce that THE WINDOW will be back next season.
Click on the PLEDGE button at the bottom of the newsletter email to learn how. As we’re midway through the NFL season (as best we can calculate), it’s worth looking at the awards markets within the context of what positions we already have from before the season, or what we’ve added on the THE WINDOW: Sports betting podcast.
MVP
Preseason: Jalen Hurts (+1400)
Midseason add: Jordan Love (+2500)
Current odds (DraftKings)
What to do, or what to look for?
As is the situation for most awards, the early part of the season sets up the context for the conversations, but by the time December rolls around, a bigger sample size of games pile up, and the media (and voters) get bored with the assumed top contender, allowing for the possibility that someone else comes from behind like a late-runner at the Kentucky Derby.
Lamar Jackson was the beneficiary of Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy falling off late last season. While he’s currently an even-money favorite to win, the Ravens were a 2-point conversion away last week from being 6-4, and their next three games are: @Steelers, @Chargers, and vs. Eagles, before their bye week.
If you back Jackson, and the Ravens keep winning, while the stats don’t slip, you double your money. That’s not enough of a payout to be worth betting against another superstar stealing it down the stretch, like he did last year.
The second and third choices - Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes - square off this weekend, and the winner will solidify themselves as the biggest challenger to Jackson (though even if Mahomes wins, his stats still don’t match up).
Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts is on a heater. At 7-2, and favored to beat Jayden Daniels and the Commanders this Thursday, followed by a Sunday-nighter at the Rams, and then a December 1st showdown in Baltimore, a make-or-break run for the Eagles’ chances at the top seed in the NFC is set up. Pairing good stats with a No.1 seed in the conference is something of a prerequisite, and Hurts hasn’t disqualified himself yet.
It’s worth staying put with the Eagles’ QB, or starting a position on him at 14-1 (at FanDuel or Bet365), and revisiting the market in three weeks. If Hurts can move up to the second choice, then there might be room to add the other top contender to try to corner the market.
Offensive Player of the Year
Preseason: AJ Brown (+3438)
Midseason: Ja’Marr Chase (+1300)
Current odds (DraftKings)
What to do, or what to look for?
Our add of Ja’Marr Chase is recent - as we pressed our position on Chase as recently as last Friday, and his odds have shifted from +1300 to +1000 to no longer than +700, so there’s little to do here.
Brown’s injuries have crushed his hopes to be the top receiver in the fantasy football stats that drive this award. Meanwhile, Justin Jefferson may be developing a Sam Darnold problem, that he has little control over, as Chase has doubled Jefferson in touchdowns and incredible, explosive, highlight reel plays. While the MVP candidates have to worry about team performance, an awesome statistical season for OPOY doesn’t have to come with a great team record.
Meanwhile, Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley are neck-and-neck for the rushing title, and if things stay that way - with Henry having more touchdowns and Barkley the receiving stats - they may split the votes from those who prefer tailbacks to receivers.
Defensive Player of the Year
Preseason: Fred Warner (+10000)
Midseason: Chris Jones (+800)
Current odds (Bet365)
What to do, or what to look for?
At -140, TJ Watt is implied to win DPOY 58.3% of the time, but with 6.5 sacks through nine games, he’s well-behind the pace of his 2021 DPOY season of 22.5 or even last year’s 19 sacks. The Steelers have a good record now, but their remaining schedule features all six AFC North games, the Eagles and the Chiefs. The odds-on favorite is not a good bet here.
The Defensive Player of the Year usually comes from the best defense, and that might be the Chiefs. Chris Jones has the benefit of not having his case made on the stat sheet, as his reputation is that of a disruptor that makes his teammates better. As Kansas City continues to be undefeated, and Mahomes’ stats are down, the leader on that side of the ball is likely to be rewarded, unless a stat-filler makes a big run from a contender.
That leaves the door open for Fred Warner, who was doing it all early on, but hasn’t made a big play in the last few games. It wouldn’t take much for him to get recognized if the 49ers win the NFC West and he racks up a combination of sacks, forced fumbles, and interceptions. Staying put is the prudent play.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Preseason: Bo Nix +1100, Brock Bowers (+5000)
Midseason: None
Current odds (Bet365)
What to do, or what to look for?
Ok, so, two notes:
At -1400, Jayden Daniels is a lock… but, are we sure?
Blind resume:
68.7 comp. %, 2147 passing yards, 9:2 TD:INT ratio, 464 rush yards, 4 TD
63.6 comp. %, 1968 passing yards, 10:6 TD:INT ratio, 290 rush yards, 4 TD
Obviously, Daniels is Player A, but Bo Nix is Player B, and while the stats don’t directly match up, Nix has been gaining on Daniels.
Think of it like this, if you flipped the order of the games, and Nix opened the season with a close loss at Kansas City, the way he played on Sunday, then went on a run of good-stat games, while Daniels started the season with 202 touchdown-less yards passing and four rushing yards in a loss, then a mediocre game against the Giants, Nix’s reputation (and his place on the oddsboard) would be a lot different.
The odds at the top of the board imply that Daniels is 93.3% and Nix is 6.7%, but with the stats as close as they are, and seven games left for each, we’ll see if the odds tighten with the Broncos hosting the Falcons, before facing the Raiders, Browns, Colts, Chargers, Bengals, and Week 18 Chiefs the rest of the way.
Meanwhile, Bowers (nearing the NFL’s top-10 in receiving yards) lurks in case there’s late-season injury issues to the top quarterbacks.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Preseason: An assortment of mega-longshots for pennies
Midseason: None… yet
Current Odds (Bet365)
What to do, or what to look for?
I didn’t like this market before the season, and I like it even less now.
Jared Verse has moved into the position of prohibitive favorite, but he’s only got 3.5 sacks, which is a number small enough that another rookie could have one or two good games to build a resume that stands out. In fact, Verse’s teammate, Brandon Fiske has 3.0 and is +4000.
The Broncos’ defense is seventh in FTN’s DVOA, and rookie Jonah Elliss (2.0 sacks) might be set for more playing team on passing situations with the trade of Baron Browning. The possibility exists that he can finish with a few more sacks, so, at 55-1, he’s worth adding in a small way.
Add now: Brandon Fiske (+4000), Jonah Elliss (+5500)
Comeback Player of the Year
Preseason: JK Dobbins (+4700)
Midseason: Nick Chubb (+1800)
Current Odds (Bet365)
What to do, or what to look for?
Our guy, JK Dobbins, could use some attention that should come this Sunday night, as the Chargers have been flexed into primetime, starting a run of three of their next four games under the lights.
The Chargers’ broadcast this past Sunday showed a graphic explaining all Dobbins’ injuries the last few years, but his resume wasn’t helped when Jim Harbaugh threw his former Michigan tailback a bone, letting Hassan Haskins dive into the end zone from one yard out.
Dobbins is 10th in the league in rushing yardage, eighth in rushing touchdowns, and just 330 yards away from 1000. Just 12 tailbacks hit that number last year, and only four had 1100+, so if Dobbins can stay healthy and get some more shine, he’ll get into the conversation at the right time.
As far as defending a position on Dobbins, we’d like one of the quarterbacks to emerge ahead of the others. Kirk Cousins has moved up from +400 before the season to take the mantle as the betting favorite, as the reason the Falcons appear headed for a NFC South title, but Joe Burrow and Kyler Murray haven’t rested their case either. We’ll wait to make any moves.
Coach of the Year
Preseason: Kevin O’Connell (+2194), Sean Payton (+2900), Doug Pederson (+4000)
Midseason: None… yet
Current Odds (DraftKings)
What to do, or what to look for?
Yes, the Doug Pederson pick is objectively funny, but at least he’s not fired… yet.
Andy Reid’s atop the oddsboard, and if the Chiefs just go undefeated, then, yeah, sure.
He’s among a cluster of contenders, but it’s going to take a strong finish in the face of adversity - like the Browns and Kevin Stefanski last year - to stand out.
O’Connell’s going to have to get his quarterback play buttoned back up again, but at least the Vikings keep winning games. Meanwhile, we already listed a soft schedule for the Broncos that might get them into a surprise playoff berth.
We’d be buying high on Jonathan Gannon, who’s off-the-radar on the Cardinals’ bye this week, and we noted the Steelers’ slate that could tamp down the excitement about Mike Tomlin. Similar concerns abound about the Commanders’ finishing stretch as well.
The big name looming now is Jim Harbaugh. The other candidates have personnel reasons as to why their team’s turned things around, but if I asked you what’s different about the Chargers this season, you’d say what?
Probably a massive change in professionalism on the field and winning the games you’re supposed to, thanks to… the head coach.
With his name preceding him, Harbaugh was the favorite at +800, but we wanted to see it to believe in a turnaround in L.A. At +650 at FanDuel, it’s time to add Harbaugh, since that’s been confirmed, with the aforementioned high-profile primetime games on deck and a 2.5 game lead on a playoff spot.
Add now: Jim Harbaugh (+650, FanDuel)
*Have some positions on statistical leaders? Don’t worry, we’ll follow up with part 2 next week.