NFL regular season futures: How to pare down teams to back and fade
Picking between the Regular Season Win Totals and Make/Miss Playoffs market
So, you want to bet on (or against) a team for this season. You open up your sportsbook, and see an almost overwhelming plethora of ways to do it.
While there’s probably an offseason article to be written, studying the math behind what each market - and its accompanying odds - are worth, time is of the essence and I won’t subject you (or myself) to that, a week before the season starts.
We’ve gone pillaging for value in the division winner betting markets, wagers based on accomplishing a significant team goal at a likelihood we think is greater than the market. They are teams we hope will be winners this season; making a move to the top tier of the NFL, getting a home game in the playoffs, etc. But there remains three quarters of the NFL, whom we can buy or sell as we please.
Even the teams with the lowest market rating set a goal of making the playoffs, so before firing away into the betting markets for teams to make or miss, it’s worth roughing out the playoff picture in preliminary fashion.
AFC Playoff Picture
From the Ravens to the Patriots, the teams are listed in the order of their market rating.
Selfishly, we’ve slotted our optimal AFC divisional winners in the left column, but even if you swapped out the Dolphins for the Bills or Jets, the Browns for the Bengals or Ravens, and the Jaguars for the Texans, you can see how tough it’s going to be to make the AFC playoffs, and how many teams we perceive to be good will be left out.
As a result, you may want to look for bets on teams to MISS the playoffs in the AFC.
NFC Playoff Picture
We’ve added a line of demarcation for the NFC playoff outlook to accentuate the cutoff for a playoff team.
Again, with a level of optimism for the Seahawks, we’ve assigned them the NFC West, but swapping them with the 49ers only accentuates a key point - there are some vulnerable teams above the line, and those on the outside-looking-in might not require THAT surprising of a season to steal a playoff spot.
In reverse to the AFC, bettors should lean towards NFC teams to “Make the Playoffs.”
Valuable NFL regular season win total bets
Most bettors look to the regular season win (RSW) total market to register their opinion of a team. Since it’s been open for months, you aren’t likely to get closing line value - a measurement of success for game markets during the season. However, bettors’ main advantage is that, while a sportsbook must offer their price on a bet, we don’t have to take it. The best strategy to be profitable here, is deciding who your overrated and underrated teams are, and then shopping for the best price on that side.
Here are the RSW sides I am interested in betting along with the price and widely-used sportsbook they’re available at:
The Giants are in here twice, since both Under 5.5 (+180) and Under 6.5 (-135) qualify as good bets at those prices.
You’ll note the prevalence of bets with plus-money odds. The idea is that if we’re tying up bets at odds similar to an individual game’s money line, we prefer not to play juiced sides that gobble up profit when we lose a bet. This way, we can go .500 and still turn a profit.
More importantly, for my money (literally, since we’d be tying up 16+ units of bankroll for over four months), this is too many bets.
So, how do we pare down our selections to ones we feel strongest about, while keeping contradictions to a minimum, and getting the best bang for our buck in registering our opinion with a bet?
Trimming the card to save bankroll for the season
One thing you’ll read a lot in this space is that sports betting isn’t done in a vacuum. This means that one bet you make might effect whether you make a different bet. We’ll keep that in mind as we trim down the RSW card:
Parallel plays: While the Ravens and Bengals are both valuable bets, at even-money or better, to finish with 10 wins or less, because they face each other twice, their success or failure this season are somewhat connected. There’s a decent chance of splitting those two bets (one goes over, one under), which means we just tied up two units for months only to get our money back.
If you like one more than the other, the odds worth playing them are above, but 10-7 will be very dicey to make the playoffs, so betting either side to miss at almost +200 is a better value if things go sideways. I have less faith in Cincinnati than Baltimore.
Liking the under for the favorites in the AFC North is reflected by taking the longshot Browns to win the AFC North, with a low-risk, bigger-reward bet at +550.
Similarly, we already have a bet fading the Buccaneers and Saints, by betting on the Falcons to win the NFC South, with the same scenario of a possible split between Tampa and New Orleans amounting to a push.
Intersecting plays: We’ve got the Bears to go under 8.5 and the Vikings to go over 6.5. Those could both win, but it sure puts a lot of pressure on their two matchups this season. It’s best to pick one and go with it.
The Bears’ number might be inflated, but there’s also a potential that suspected upside comes to fruition, whereas the Vikings are being disregarded because Sam Darnold will be the quarterback this year.
The hope in Chicago is built on something tangible, whereas the mistrust of Darnold is based on bad situations in New York and Carolina, and disrespects difference-makers Kevin O’Connell and Justin Jefferson. We’ll keep the Vikings (Over 6.5) on the card.
Scaling up: We talked about liking the Broncos as a high-upside play in the AFC Divisional previews, with a bet on them to win the division at +2200 and finish second at +650. Since those will require 8-12 wins by Denver, but don’t require a sizeable bet, using the alternative win total market for a bet with a lower bar to get over should be the starting point before scaling up to take advantage of the where case the Broncos are the surprise team. Here’s how that might look:
Over 6.5 (+160): 1 unit
2nd place in AFC West (+650): 0.4 units
Win the AFC West (+2200): 0.2 units
Having conviction about the Broncos is worth 1.6 units. Where a 7-win season earns back 1 unit, an 8-10 win season for second place nets three units more, and if they really break through and shock the NFL, they’ll net even more. We’ll need two wins over the Raiders to push the Broncos ceiling up, so Las Vegas can come off the card.
The same concept applies in the NFC for the Seahawks:
Over 8.5 (+140): 1 unit
Win the NFC West (+750): 0.4 units
Nine wins might get the Seahawks in the playoffs, but their best price is +180 to make it. That’s not enough of a difference from the +140 payout for nine wins - where we don’t have to worry about the standings.
Measuring your love: The Lions need to win 11 games to go over, so even if I like them to do so, I have to ask myself if that’s the only goal I want to set for them.
I think 11 wins should be enough to win the NFC North, so instead of making this bet, I’ll take my chances with betting them to take the division at +130.
I also think that they could win as many as 14 games this season, so I’d prefer saving my bankroll for high-end results in Detroit.
If I’m wrong, and they win 10 or fewer games, I don’t want to be over-leveraged on the Lions. Skipping a 1.3 unit bet is one way to limit any potential damage.
Measuring your hate: The Giants provide the same opportunity as the Broncos, only in reverse. We can take their under at 6.5 wins and pay the juice to play it safe. However, I think the floor is limitless for the Giants, and want to save some investment capital for them to be BAD bad, opting to play one unit on the adjusted win total: Under 5.5. The capital saved will be used on the Commanders win total, hoping Washington can sweep New York.
Using the Make/Miss Playoffs market as an alternative to a RSW total:
Like the Bengals/Ravens situation above, finding value in the Chargers and Raiders to go under their win total provides a conflict. However, Los Angeles is -135 to NOT make the playoffs. Considering how tough the AFC looks to be, and the Chiefs blocking their path to win the division, 10 wins seems like the minimum requirement for the Bolts. I rather pay -135 for at least one more win of leeway than get +110 on eight wins or fewer.
You don’t have to look far for the inverse of the Chargers situation. Across the halls of SoFi Stadium, the Rams are -115 to miss the playoffs, but a 9-win season might get them in, so taking them under 8.5 at plus-money is the better value. However, that intersects with Seahawks over 8.5, so we can leave the Rams off the card.
The Final Card
Regular season win totals
AFC:
Broncos: Over 6.5 (+160)
Patriots: Under 4.5 (+110)
Titans: Over 6.5 (+115)
NFC:
Vikings: Over 6.5 (-130)
Giants: Under 5.5 (+180)
Seahawks: Over 8.5 (+140)
Commanders: Over 6.5 (-102)
Make/Miss the Playoffs
Chargers: Miss the Playoffs (-130, DraftKings)
Jets: Miss the Playoffs (+145, FanDuel)
Bengals: Miss the Playoffs (+190, Bet365)
Cowboys: Miss the Playoffs (+164, FanDuel)
Vikings: Make the Playoffs (+300, Bet365)