NFL season-long player props: Valuable bets in the rushing markets
It was a swing-and-miss in the rushing markets last year. Any annoyance isn’t from losing a couple of bets on players who never panned out (we more than made up for that elsewhere), it’s about missing out on a 30-1 winner that cruised from basically the first drive of the year.
Christian McCaffrey had his biggest game of the year in Week 1 (152 yards), stayed healthy, and racked up 272 carries to win by 292 yards. All while skipping the last game of the season.
Unlike Josh Jacobs, who won the rushing title in 2022 but was not the favorite in 2023, McCaffrey’s season earned him the top spot on the oddsboard.
Rushing leader odds
A note on bet sizing: I like starting at the end when it comes to longshot futures betting - figure out what you want to win and bet from there.
Ie. A 10-1 shot might be worth $25 (if your standard unit is $50) to try to win $250, and a 50-1 longshot would be a $5 wager
The chart above continues to show the benefits of shopping around. We hear that advice a lot, but there’s some drastically different payouts for many of the names above. However, don’t blindly take a drastic price, thinking you’re getting a great number on someone like Panthers’ rookie Jonathan Brooks. The Texas’ product being out the first four games is reflected in the odds at some sportsbooks, but not others. 120-1 isn’t a great price, it’s just one that’s been adjusted, unlike places that still have him at 50-1.
Best bets to lead the NFL in rushing yards
Let’s do the math.
McCaffrey could have won the rushing title last year with 1168 yards. If you participated in a fantasy football draft, you know the new era of the backfield timeshare is firmly upon us and McCaffrey’s level of usage and efficiency will likely become a relic. If tailbacks regularly need just 1300 yards to win the rushing title, longshot will be more prevalent.
Here’s how you get to 1300 yards:
17 games * 16 carries/game = 272
272 carries * 4.7 yards/carry = 1278.4
Anyone who stays healthy for a full season and can either carry it more than 16 times per game or with an efficiency better than 4.7 yards per rush, is a contender for the rushing title.
Bijan Robinson (+1200, DraftKings)
What if Arthur Smith was put on this earth to create value for betting one of the superior tailback talents to lead the league in rushing in his second year?
DraftKings has an outlier price on Bijan Robinson, who, in an era where we don’t draft running backs high, was drafted eighth overall. The Texas superstar had four games where he carried the ball 16+ times, and he ran for 90.8 yards on average in those games, but Smith otherwise mostly kept him under wraps.
New Falcons’ offensive coordinator, and former Rams’ offensive assistant, Zac Robinson (no relation) saw first-hand how much better the offense ran after Kyren Williams rejuvenated the run game in L.A.
De’Von Achane (+2800, Bet365)
Speaking of second-year runners, Achane’s talent was pretty obvious last year, to the tune of 7.8 yards per carry. Early injury issues, and his general rookie-ness (pass-protection and the time it takes to grasp a deep NFL playbook) made the Dolphins lean on veteran Raheem Mostert and he never gave up that responsibility. However, Mike McDaniel’s no fool. He should have spent the entire offseason making sure Achane can be the lead ball-carrier. He won’t have our target of 272 carries, but he’s capable of making up for that in efficiency given his big-play capability.
James Cook (+4000, DraftKings)
Cook’s carries went from 12 in the first 10 games, to 17 per in the Bills’ final nine (including playoffs) after firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. Buffalo went from being in danger of missing the playoffs to back to being a Super Bowl threat. My guess is they’ll want to keep that offensive strategy going.
17 carries in 17 games, would amount to 289 in a full season for Cook. Even if his 4.7 yards per carry dips, with the higher volume, Cook can make a run at 1300 yards rushing - a number that might be good enough to win the rushing title in this era of split-time running back situations.
James Conner (+5000, DraftKings)
I’m a sucker for the Blind Resume game, so let’s play:
Player A: 12 games, 1144 yards, 5.0 per carry, HOF-bound QB
Player B: 13 games, 1040 yards, 5.0 per carry, Josh Dobbs for half the season and one game of Clayton Tune.
Player A is Kyren Williams (priced at 16-1), and Player B is, of course, James Conner at 50-1.
Conner’s 208 carries in 13 games is 16 rushes per game. With Kyler Murray always holding the defense’s attention, Conner had 514 yards in the last five games of 2023, with three games of 25+ carries. Conner probably won’t play all 17 games, but what if he does and goes all out for one big bell-cow season?
The $5 Club
Longshots that aren’t likely to hit, but you also won’t miss the $5 you’ll bet on them just in case they do.
Tyjae Spears (+10000, Bet365)
Here me out.
Call it the “Line of De-Lamar-cation.”. If we can agree that, as a quarterback, Lamar Jackson is not winning the rushing title, any starting running back with odds longer than Jackson should be a potentially valuable bet.
Derrick Henry’s up near the top of the oddsboard, like he was last year, and the year before that. He’s there as the featured tailback on the Ravens. He would be, if he were still the featured runner in Nashville.
However, he ran for just 4.2 yards per carry last season (perhaps due to mileage that’s piled up over the years). Behind the same offensive line, during a quarterback transition, rookie Tyjae Spears ran for 4.5 yards per carry. If Spears was the clear cut No. 1 for the Titans, how much further up would he be on the board?
The Titans had to sign someone for depth at tailback, and picked up Tony Pollard, but if Pollard was any good, he would have taken advantage of his opportunity in Dallas last season. Maybe the Titans realize Spears should be their go-to guy and we have a 100-1 ticket on a player in a 10-1 role.
Javonte Williams (+10000, Bet365)
Last year’s numbers don’t look good for Williams with 3.6 yards per carry, but he was coming off an ACL tear, and you always hear about a football player not being fully right until Year 2. Those numbers, and the competition for touches in Denver’s RB room, are why Williams is 100-1, but what if he’s shown that he’s back to the player who was an early second-round pick and gets the role as main tailback? With Bo Nix’s running ability - compared to Russell Wilson disinterest in designed runs - there should be some more room to run this season.
Follow-up note on bet sizing:
Here’s an idea of how these bets might look, before tweaking for personal preference:
Robinson (0.5 = 6 units)
Achane (0.2 = 6 units)
Cook (0.15 = 6 units)
Conners (.1 = 5 units)
Spears (.05 = 5 units)
Williams (.05 = 5 units)
Best bets to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns
We’re looking for reliable runners on big-time offenses, as Jamal Williams and Raheem Mostert were surprise winners in this market the last two seasons.
Saquon Barkley (+2000, FanDuel)
I’m buying all the stock in the Eagles’ offense this year, with a side order of “think they’re going to be more careful with Jalen Hurts.”
It’s one thing to call run plays for Hurts knowing that he can slide in the open field, but it’s another to force him to take it in the red zone when Saquon Barkley is available. The recent collection of runners in Philly have been serviceable, but it means something that an organization who doesn’t normally spend on the running back position, went to get Barkley. He might be priced this long because the number of touchdowns needed would be a career high, but this isn’t the Giants’ offense he’s had to work with.
Isiah Pacheco (+3000, FanDuel)
Do I need to say more than “investing in the Chiefs’ offense?”
It helps that the receiving options are still a little shaky for Patrick Mahomes, and Travis Kelce’s scoring production dipped last year, allowing for a belief that a tailback can score at a high rate in K.C. Including the playoffs, Isiah Pacheco closed the season with seven touchdowns in eight games, taking the pressure off Mahomes like the goal line ‘back he’s never really had.
Zack Moss (+5000, Bet365)
Moss fits the profile of “journeyman who lands on a good offense with an immobile quarterback and burrows his way to 15 touchdowns.” Speaking of burrowing, Joe Burrow’s health is always the key, but with apologies to Joe Mixon and his family, Burrow’s tailback has looked pretty washed the last couple of years. Going back to 2021 - Cincinnati’s Super Bowl appearance season - the Bengals’ offense produced 13 touchdowns in 16 games for Mixon as the goal line tailback. Moss hasn’t gotten a full season’s worth of opportunity, but at 50-1, it’s worth a bet to see how he does with that workload.
Aaron Jones (+7000, DraftKings)
Call this one a hunch, since Jones has eight touchdowns in the last three regular seasons, but part of that is Aaron Rodgers’ desire to throw touchdowns near the goal line. Jones scored 16 times in 2019, and had three scores on one playoff game last year, so he knows where the end zone is. The Vikings’ offense might be sneaky good, but Kevin O’Connell would probably prefer to take the ball out of Sam Darnold’s hands near the goal line.
Bet sizing:
Barkley: 0.45 = 9 units
Pacheco: 0.3 = 9 units
Moss: 0.15 = 7.5 units
Jones: 0.1 = 7 units