NFL season-long player props: Valuable bets in the receiving markets
In this year’s passing futures piece, we talked about reaching the unreachable star by hitting on both passing yards and touchdowns before the season even started last year. When it came to the receiving categories, it was almost as lucrative but twice as easy. Tyreek Hill (+850) and CeeDee Lamb (+2000) caught the ball and ran away from the rest of the league in receiving yards, so all we had to do was wait for the payout.
We had a timely mid-season add in the touchdown markets with Mike Evans (+1400) (though not as sweet as his pre-season odds of 40-1) and we ended up golden there as well.
Of course, going back to the well with Hill and Lamb won’t pay out the way it did last year, making it a riskier play in a market that hasn’t seen a repeat winner since Calvin Johnson in 2012. Receiving yards does tend to have the same suspects in the mix each year though, so Hill and Lamb’s move up the oddsboard means other significant contenders are available at a discount.
Meanwhile, the receiving touchdown market is a much bigger crapshoot. James Jones cashed tickets for bettors in 2012. Remember Kenny Golladay? He finished 2019 with the most touchdown receptions. Eric Ebron was two touchdowns away from tying Antonio Brown a year before that. Anything is possible in a 17-game season.
Receiving leader odds
There’s quite a significant difference between the odds offered at FanDuel than at the two other major sports books that we use to get an idea of what odds are available for the premier talent in the NFL.
Best bets to lead the NFL in receiving yards
Justin Jefferson (+1000, FanDuel)
Part of the reason winning tickets got home so comfortably was thanks to an injury to Justin Jefferson, who despite finishing just the first four and last four games of 2023, still managed a thousand yards, adding to literally the best statistical start to a career ever.
A year ago, Jefferson was +500 to lead the league in receiving. So, why are his odds so much longer this year? The only explanation is that Kirk Cousins is out, a rookie was expected to take over and now the perceived backup, Sam Darnold, is in. You might see Darnold as a massive red flag, but that implies you hold Cousins in high regard - a turn of events on what I’ve seen on social media for the last decade or so.
Jefferson averaged 135 yards per game in those early-season games with Cousins, but with Nick Mullens at the helm late in the season, he still averaged 119 - a pace for 2023 yards over 17 games.
With all due respect Jeremy Bates, Dowell Loggains, Joe Brady, and Ben McAdoo, only Brady’s still an offensive coordinator in the NFL, and none should have been responsible for teaching Darnold how to play quarterback when he was one of the youngest top picks ever. A year in San Francisco, and now with Kevin O’Connell calling his plays, Darnold (still just 27) has the best chance for success he’s ever had. Oh, and Jefferson’s stats in those eight games, came with the Vikings going 1-7. They don’t need to be good for Jefferson to continue to be great, and his injury issues last season seemed like an anomaly.
AJ Brown (+1400, FanDuel)
The front door for Lamb and Hill opened with Jefferson’s injury, but the backdoor to get beat was left ajar when AJ Brown was running amok through secondaries in the first half of last season.
Brown was at 939 yards through eight games, but then Jalen Hurts aggravated a knee injury against Dallas in the first week of November, and the Eagles’ offense slowed to a crawl. Hurts was unable to provide a deadly threat in the run game, and wasn’t as elusive to the pass rush, so everyone’s numbers - including Brown’s - cratered.
Still just 27, Brown’s one of the upper-echelon pure talents at the receiver position and arguably the best contested deep-ball catcher in the league. After flirting with 1500 yards in his two seasons in Philadelphia, as Hurts improves, it would make a ton of sense if Brown jumped into the 1700-yard range.
George Pickens (+7500, FanDuel)
It’s always fun to have a longshot, so we’ll go with the best talent on the bottom-half of the oddsboard. Russell Wilson (and probably Justin Fields at some point) aren’t ideal quarterbacks for a 1700-yard season, but George Pickens led the NFL in yards per reception (18.1) with a gaggle of quarterbacks that Wilson and Fields are considered an upgrade to. If there’s a third-year breakout candidate, Pickens might be it.
Best bets to lead the NFL in receptions
Justin Jefferson (+1300, DraftKings)
Adjusting for the 17-game season, it takes at least 120 receptions to lead the league. With Lamb coming up 50 yards shy of Hill, it was the first time since 2018 where the yardage leader didn’t also lead in receptions - something that was actually a rarity in the decade before.
While the oddsboard suggests there are players who have a better chance at higher reception numbers versus yardage volume, the actual season standout is likely going to lead the league in both, so Jefferson might actually be more valuable in this market.
Using those eight games he started and finished last year, he played at a 133-catch pace, five more balls than he caught to lead the league in 2022.
Garrett Wilson (+1600, Bet365)
Here’s my lone concession to the idea that Aaron Rodgers - having played four plays in 20 months - at 40 years old, is going to make it through a 17-game NFL season. Rodgers will be looking to fire quick passes to his best target, the way he used to with Davante Adams (twice in the top-3).
Even if Rodgers misses time, we know Wilson can get open enough to receive the 168 targets he saw last year. Only Lamb, Adams and Hill had more. If Rodgers (and functional backup Tyrod Taylor) can raise Wilson’s catch percentage from 56.5% up into the 70s, Wilson could crack 120 receptions, even if the yardage continues to lag behind.
D.J. Moore (+10000, DraftKings)
I don’t think the Bears drafted Caleb Williams just to hand the ball off, and while there’s some exciting pieces in Chicago, relying on a rookie in Rome Odounze and the ever-banged-up Keenan Allen doesn’t make sense when you have D.J. Moore, coming off his best season. Moore’s best odds for yardage leader are 44-1, but he’s just as likely to get peppered with safe and risky throws alike, and if he can catch 70.5% of passes from Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent, he can up that percentage - at higher volume - from Williams.
Best bets to lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns
DK Metcalf (+3000, FanDuel)
In my best Mike Singletary voice, “I want size!”, when it comes to scoring touchdowns. That’s how some of the random league-leaders over the years have done it.
At 6’4 and 235 lbs, DK Metcalf used to score touchdowns all the time. In 2020, he had 10, and in 2021 he had 12. Maybe Russell Wilson was better at giving him a chance to box out smaller defensive backs, but I imagine new-OC Ryan Grubb likely walked into the Seahawks’ facility and thought Metcalf might be a decent red zone target.
Sam LaPorta (+3500)
10 touchdowns by a rookie is pretty sick, and really takes the cap off of what a tight end can do. LaPorta tied Amon-Ra St. Brown for the Lions’ lead in receiving touchdowns last season, but the best price for St. Brown is +2200. Dan Campbell and Ben Johnson knew what they had in the second round pick early on, but Jared Goff’s confidence in throwing it to LaPorta in the end zone rose as the season went on. As the biggest target on a high-octane offense, there’s reason to believe LaPorta can put up similar numbers to Travis Kelce in his prime - a time when Kelce was flirting with leading the league in touchdowns instead of mega-pop-stars.
Drake London (+4000, FanDuel)
This is the receiving category where things get crazy. If, by crazy, you mean a big-bodied star like Mike Evans winning at 40-1 odds last year.
We want size and uncertainty about ceiling in this market, and Drake London (6’3) having never been in a real game with Kirk Cousins qualifies as both.
There’s a reason the Falcons are a -130 favorite to win the NFC South, and that’s the expectation that they’ll score with professional quarterbacking. So, while going from two touchdowns to something like 15 would be a pretty big jump, so is the difference in quarterback play London will be working with.
Courtland Sutton (+14000, FanDuel)
If you haven’t looked it up as a subsidiary reference, here’s the list of the top touchdown catchers from 2023:
Evans (13)
Hill (13)
Lamb (12)
Courtland Sutton (10)
*Record scratch*
Wait, hold up, the receiver with the fourth-most touchdowns last year, is available at 140-1??
He must be hurt…
No, healthy as ever.
Short?…
Nope, 6’4
He must have lost a quarterback that everyone agrees is awesome…
Ha! Russell Wilson
Ok, I looked it up, he’s got a rookie quarterback…
Well, yes, the same age as Brock Purdy, with 15,000+ yards in college.
Ok, well, it must be a new coaching regime…
No, still Sean Payton - 60 touchdowns from Marques Colston in seven seasons and 46 touchdowns from Jimmy Graham in four years (including a league-leading 16 in 2013) - who knows the value of a big target in the scoring area.
Sutton’s clearly the red zone target of choice in Denver, but even if he was only allowed to catch balls in his mask, at 140-1, I’d still be interested.