NFL Survivor strategy for Week 1

Backing the Bengals to avoid a manic Sunday?

We make a lot of bets around these parts - some more fun than others, and at higher personal investment than what it costs to enter your average $10 Survivor pool.

But, man, do survivor sweats just hit different. 

It tells “others” all they need to know about “us,” that we can reel off half-a-dozen specific details about the games that knocked us out of a past Survivor pool, and that we tend look back at the close calls with a satisfaction-filled reverence.

An easy winner is nice, but, “Remember when we all had a borderline coronary when the Eagles almost lost to the Giants?!… that was crazy, Bro.”

After all, we’re not losing the $10 to enter, are we? We’re losing the hundreds, thousands, or in one particular case, the millions, that were our God-given right as soon as we entered.

Before we look at the Week 1 moneylines and their translation to implied win probability, it’s worth remembering that technically it doesn’t matter if you lose in Week 1 or Week 15. We have to get to the end.

This doesn’t apply to the vacant feeling you have in your soul after getting knocked out by Matt Gay kicking a million 50-yard field goals, during a quasi-hurricane, on a Sunday in Baltimore.

Not getting to play Survivor anymore can be a bigger downer than waving goodbye to the entry fee.

Week 1 moneylines

Each week until we get knocked out, we’ll map two paths to make it to the end of the season undefeated. As long as our entries are still standing, we’ll use the implied win probability (IWP) of each game’s moneyline to evaluate what chance we have for survival each week. Along the way, we’ll also use those probabilities to calculate the likelihood of getting as far we do. Once we’re out, though, we’re out.

Survivor Path A

Circa Survivor is the biggest such contest in the world. Their contest adds two extra “weeks” - Thanksgiving Day and Christmas - for a total of 20 wins necessary to take home a share (or all) of the $10 million prize. As an entrant in that contest, I’ll be using those rules for “Path A.”

Bengals (over Patriots)

I would LOVE to zag here.

You’re talking to a guy who used the Commanders in Week 1 last year. They should have given me a mill’ just for that. 

However, even after taking out a few percentage points of implied win probability for the sportsbook’s profit margin, the Bengals are deemed around 80% likely to win. For this to be a bad choice, over 80% of the pool would have to also be on Cincinnati, but there are too many contestants willing to believe that they increase their chances of winning considerably by taking a more under-the-radar pick. However, as we’ll see later in the week, the next games on the list above feature some very intriguing underdogs.

What are we missing out on by burning the Bengals now?

Win probabilities are win probabilities, no matter where the game is played, but any home game does boost a team’s chance of winning. Here are the other Bengals’ home opponents:

• Commanders, Ravens, Eagles, Raiders, Steelers, Browns, Broncos

The Raiders’ game is November 3rd, so the Commanders game in Week 3 has the highest win probability between now and then. That same week the Jets host the Patriots, and since we’ll be trying to use New York as early as possible - just in case their 40-year-old quarterback is on borrowed time - that slot may be spoken for.

We have such little certainty about who’s truly bad this early in the season (as survivor strategy often relies on fading bad teams), it’s pretty clear the Patriots are in a rebuild. Meanwhile, with Jayden Daniels, the Commanders are among the other teams that drafted a quarterback in the first round this year who may be dangerous right away.

Survivor Path B

Even making it through just the 18 weeks (Path B) of the regular season is hard enough. As you know from playing in your pool at home. In theory, mathematically, you’ll need to use the 18th-best team in the NFL at some point. Looking at the preseason market power ratings, that would point to the Bears, Chargers and Steelers on the list to use, with the Jaguars or Seahawks as teams next in line. 

Bengals (over Patriots)

Picture it. It’s cold, it’s windy, there are flurries, and Josh Allen is carrying human beings on his back, as the Bills are fighting for a playoff spot. It’s Buffalo weather, and the opponent is the 2-13 Patriots. That sounds like a more appealing usage of the Bills than on warm summer day in Orchard Park against Kyler Murray.

It’s very hard to be surprisingly good in the NFL, but it’s easy - one injury away - to be surprisingly very bad, and thus, a team worth picking on. We’ll know more later on in the season about which teams get struck with injury misfortune, but the Patriots are one of very few fade targets right now.

The Broncos may have something up their sleeve for the Seahawks. Both are teams we think may be better than the market’s giving them credit for. Plus, Seattle hosts the Giants in Week 4, where they’ll be an even bigger favorite than here.

Meanwhile, if you want to trust Dennis Allen, Derek Carr, and the Saints as a favorite, you’re more than welcome to, but I rather get lost a few blocks off of Bourbon Street at 3am, than make that pick.

I’ll rely on Joe Burrow and a proven group (when healthy), who’ll be looking to start the season strong after things crumbled almost instantly last year, and if the Patriots knock off the Bengals to end our survivor season before it begins, so be it.