NFL Week 1: Best bets for Sunday
Our ‘dogs to bite, calling a coin flip, a SNF favorite, and much more
We didn’t have to wait long to get a reminder that NFL games are won and lost - side, total and moneyline - by a toenail:
Not that a half-point on the spread ended up mattering on Thursday night, but the thin line is why we preach line-shopping and the effort to get the best of the number.
For Week 1 though, the market’s had months, not days, to weigh-in on each game. Reacting ever-so-slightly to every piece of injury or contract holdout information weeks before the games are to be played. They’re finally happening this weekend - which is great, but we’re left with the most efficient market possible. That’s not ideal.
However, we’ve also had that time to prepare and form opinions of teams. This is our chance to register that opinion in a way that pays out in the short-term instead of playing the waiting game in the futures markets.
Cardinals @ Bills (-6.5, 48)
The first of four games where we’re backing an underdog we’ve shown affinity in the RUMP, against the spread, hoping they can win outright.
The Bills were one of the worst run defenses in the league last year, allowing 4.7 yards per carry. Only the Broncos allowed more. Of course, it’s possible they’ve tightened that up, but it should get tested by the combination of Kyler Murray and workhorse James Conner (25+ carries in three of the last five games in 2023), along with rookie Trey Benson spelling Conner.
A good running game will open things up for play-action, but it will also take time off the clock. The Bills know this, as they’re shifting to a more possession-based offense as well. It’s probably smart to rebuild themselves in a way more suited to the late-season weather in Buffalo, and the playoffs, but it doesn’t promote winning games comfortably in September.
A second year for Jonathan Gannon to put his stamp on the Cardinals’ offense, getting highly-drafted players like Zaven Collins into a position to succeed based on their skillset, can only be a good thing for Arizona’s chances at hanging around with the Bills.
I’ve been hoping that this line creeps up to a flat +7, but I wouldn’t hold your breath, as it should get bet any time the +7 gets close to -115.
Pick: Cardinals (+7, -120 at Pinnacle)
Vikings @ Giants (+1.5, 41)
The New York-based media will get excited, just as easily as it will tear a team to shreds. Consider this the calm before the storm as you read about all the speed at the wide receiver position or a potentially dominant defensive line.
The bad news for the Giants is that - outside of Malik Nabers - they’ve always had speed. You can split the blame for not using it however you want - between a porous offensive line and Daniel Jones’ ability, but that hurdle to success still exists with Minnesota DC Brian Flores looking to confuse that collective with his schemes.
Just ask Sam Darnold about playing in New York. Had he been drafted by an offensive cultivator like Kevin O’Connell, his career would likely be considerably different. One of my summer “takes” is that the Vikings are going to be fine offensively with Darnold.
Minnesota moves the ball, and takes advantage of the Jones’ turnovers that the media and fans have grown accustomed, to win this game.
Pick: Vikings moneyline (-118 at Betano)
Jaguars @ Dolphins (-3.5, 49)
Get the +3.5s while they’re hot!
The market’s starting to veer to the side of the Jaguars in a Sunshine State matchup where the heat might not be as much of an issue as it would be for a team visiting from Denver or New England.
The Dolphins’ offense relies on timing and keeping pressure off of Tua Tagovailoa. With Arik Armstead now in the fold - potentially lining up against a new, inexperienced Dolphins’ center, and Josh Hines-Allen hitting his prime, there’s reason to believe the Jags can get Tua off his spot.
On offense, not enough is being made about Brian Thomas’s potential to hit the ground running with the pieces already in place in Jacksonville. The offensive line was suspect last year, but there’s something to be said for continuity. Like the Miami offense, the defense is missing a key piece in the middle, with All-Pro Christian Wilkins now in Las Vegas.
With a healthy group, looking to find the mojo they had midway through last season, Jacksonville should keep this to at least a one-possession game.
Pick: Jaguars (+3.5, -117 at Pinnacle)
Titans @ Bears (-3.5, 44.5)
Another game we’re on record as liking the underdog’s chances for a win, as we’ve talked about how the Titans’ offense might show they’re just as interesting as the more-hyped Bears.
Instead, let’s look at what Chicago has to deal with. The Titans have added 360 lbs of T’Vondre Sweat in the middle of their defense, next to Jeffrey Simmonds, who, when healthy (he missed the end of last season), can ruin a game as well as almost anybody. If the Bears can’t take the interior pressure off of Caleb Williams, and Arden Key and Harold Landry can keep the favorite for Rookie of the Year contained within the pocket, the Titans will turn Williams over more than what the Bears can do to Will Levis.
Pick: Titans (+3.5)
Commanders @ Buccaneers (-3.5, 43.5)
The last of our quartet of underdogs who still are getting more than a field goal, the Commanders’ have a glaring mismatch right in the middle of the line of scrimmage when the Bucs have the ball. Tampa’s interior offensive line is not what it once was, and they’ll be taking on Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen on a hot afternoon, which doesn’t sound like a ton of fun. They can’t afford to double them either, with new additions Dorance Armstrong, Clelin Ferrell, and Dante Fowler also coming for Baker Mayfield.
On the other side of the ball, the Bucs would argue they have the same advantage with their defensive line over the Commanders’ suspect protection unit. The difference, though, is that Jayden Daniels wants to do more damage on the outside, and his mobility is much tougher to prepare for this early in the season. How many run plays will be designed for Daniels? While he’s not the first mobile quarterback Todd Bowles’ team has ever faced, not knowing what looks they’ll get is a headache. Enough of one to keep this game close, at which point anything can happen late.
Pick: Commanders (+3.5)
Rams @ Lions (-4, 53)
If you’re wondering if I’m just taking the underdogs of over a field goal, here’s one where I think the line is coaxing you into the Rams in a rematch from the playoffs, where they covered this spread as an underdog in a losing cause.
Aaron Donald’s retirement is going to be felt to varying degrees this season, but you could sell me on the idea that the first game of the year - with three rookies and two second-year starters in the Rams’ front-seven against the most physical offensive line in the league - is where the future first-ballot Hall-of-Famer’s absence will be felt the most.
That will leave the Rams’ offense, who have their own issues on the offensive line, needing to keep up, with even more points, against a reloaded Lions’ defense.
Without the nerves of their first playoff home game in decades, Detroit gets off to a much better start on both sides of the ball, takes a lead and never looks back on Sunday night.
Pick: Lions (-4, at Pinnacle)
Best bet on Substack: It’s been a busy couple of weeks but I hope to use this space to recommend other content on the app. One that I had recommended to me this week came from
- Experimental History, by I haven’t been able to dig further in, but reading “There’s a place for everyone” has me curious about more, for when I need to get away from the sports stuff for a bit.
By-the-numbers bet:
Where possible, we’ll include a bet on a point spread that’s gotten away from our scope of expectation, but I don’t have a viable on-field case for a bet.
Colts +3 over Texans
My projection for this game is HOU -1.5, and that’s adjusting for my own personal bias, based on concern about the Colts’ defense. The line has crept up to HOU -3, a number I can’t get to on math alone.
Teaser of the week:
Bengals -2/Cowboys +8.5 (6-point tease, -120 at Bet365)
It’s pretty simple, we’re daring the Patriots to (effectively) win in Cincinnati, in a game that my numbers project the Bengals as a double-digit favorite. If the Bengals’ receivers are ruled in for Sunday, I would expect the line to go up to -10 by kick-off, at which point the teaser would no longer be valuable.
Since we need to grab the Bengals’ teaser leg now, we’ll also dare the Browns to beat the Cowboys by two possessions. There seems to be some lingering uncertainty about the health of Deshaun Watson - as if his health is the only thing we’re unsure of when it comes to the Browns’ quarterback play of late.
Total of the week:
Patriots @ Bengals: Over 40 points
We’ll be hoping the Bengals get it done on Sunday for Survivor purposes, but if it’s closer than we ever thought possible, it will be because the Patriots’ offense is able to keep up.
The Bengals should get theirs offensively (even without Tee Higgins but Ja’Marr Chase being out would be a drag), because losing the best defensive coach in history in Bill Belichick (and his defensive-playcaller son, Steve) is a big deal. As is missing front-seven talent in Christian Barmore and Matthew Judon from one of the best defenses in the league.
The Patriots’ offense was grotesque last season, so it’s a tepid endorsement when I say that, Jacoby Brissett will provide the Patriots with the best quarterback play they’ve had since Tom Brady.
With such a low total, and the assumption that the Bengals should get around their team total of 26.5, I think the Patriots can contribute 17 points. The reason I won’t just bet one team total or the other is the possibility for a 31-14 or 24-20 type of game this early in the season.
“I don’t need to fight, to prove I’m right, I don’t need to be forgiven.”