NFL Week 1 betting: Introducing the “Player Prop Express”

Ten player props worth betting for Sunday

Society gave up on sentences years ago. 

In 2024, most people don’t even communicate with them. 

Sure, as the old school-types we are, you’ve spent the whole week reading them, and I spend every workday writing them, but it’s the weekend, and there’s no time for full sentences on the weekend!

With that in mind, we’ll finish the week here at THE WINDOW with our 10 favorite player props for Sunday:

• Emptying the notebook

• In point-form

• Creating our own version of a fantasy football team

• Where that fantasy is winning all 10 bets

• Even if that means fading the players on our “team”

QB1: Anthony Richardson: Under 31.5 passing attempts (-115)

• Market assumes the Texans win by a field goal+, moving line up to HOU -3

  • If the game’s closer that that, Colts won’t be in trailing game-script

• Jonathan Taylor’s first game last year was Richardson’s last game

  • With those two on the field, why throw this much?

• Texans allowed sixth-most yards per pass attempt last year

  • Colts’ passing yardage may come in large chunks, via play-action

QB2: Derek Carr: Under 231.5 passing yards (-110)

• Carr had 228 and 119 yards in games vs. Carolina last year

• Panthers allowed fewest passing yards per game last year

• Panthers’ potentially-improved offense limits possessions, keeps Carr off field

WR1: CeeDee Lamb: Long reception - Under 25.5 yards (-115)

• 31 fewer yards per game on the road last year than at home

• Cowboys’ offensive line inexperience doesn’t buy time to find Lamb downfield

• Browns’ strong secondary allowed 7.2 yards per completion last year

  • Next closest: Ravens at 8.5

WR2: Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Over 4.5 receptions (+132)

• Changing of the guard for the Seahawks’ WR2 role

  • Tyler Lockett’s average reception betting total last year: 4.5 (-110)

    • JSN’s better now than Lockett last year

    • JSN averaged 4.0 receptions in final 10 games of 2023, with just 70% snaps

• Denver allowed 5th-highest pass completion % to opponents last year

  • Patrick Surtain to cover DK Metcalf?

  • JSN in slot

WR3: Greg Dortch: Over 26.5 receiving yards (-113, FanDuel)

• Average 73% snap-share after Kyler Murray returned last year

  • 5.5 targets per game

• Projected starter in slot

  • Bills’ secondary in transitional state, with safeties weak in coverage

RB1: Najee Harris: Under 55.5 rushing yards (-110)

• New OC Arthur Smith unlikely to commit to one running back d

  • See: Robinson, Bijon, in 2023

• Harris lined over 55.5 just twice in final two games of 2023 season

  • Reports indicate Jaylen Warren a full participant in practice this week and ready for Sunday

RB2: Ty Chandler: Over 6.5 receiving yards (-113, FanDuel)

• Lined five times in 2023, all 9.5 yards or higher

  • Shows value at 6.5

  • 8+ receiving yards in four of seven games to end season

• Sam Darnold looking for checkdown, Kevin O’Connell to call screens and swings against Giants’ defensive strength - defensive line

TE: Evan Engram: Over 5.5 receptions (+123)

• Finished last season catching 6+ balls in five of last six games

  • Average 7.3 receptions in last 10 games

• Jags expected to emphasize the passing game in 2024

• Dolphins’ defense missing key pieces from last year

FLEX: D’Andre Swift: Under 44.5 rushing yards (-110)

• Crowded tailback room

  • Incumbents Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson likely to see action

  • Will Eberflus and new OC Shane Waldron commit to Swift?

• Titans’ defensive line is massive, with T’Vondre Sweat next to Jeffrey Simmons

• Expecting a pass-heavy attack for both sides

SUPER FLEX: Brock Bowers: Over 3.5 receptions (-115)

• Why take Bowers with the 13th overall pick - when you already had a highly drafted tight end - if you’re not going to use him?

• New OC Luke Getsy oversaw Cole Kmet catching 4.3 passes per game last year

• Gardner Minshew comes from the Colts, where he relied on big TE targets, Michael Pittman (6’4), and Alec Pierce (6’3)

  • Bowers is 6’4, 230 lbs

BONUS:

RATS (Round-robin Anytime Touchdown Scoring) Parlay):

• Dalton Schultz (+210)

• Drake London (+185)

• Jayden Daniels (+200)

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+250)

• Ezekiel Elliott (+210)

1.1 unit: 10 0.1-unit bet of threes, one 0.1-unit bet of all five.