NFL Week 11 betting: The “Player Prop Express”
10 player props and 5 RATS to parlay
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
We’re not getting back into the lab, because there is no lab.
There is no extra time that needs to go into the research and analysis for the bets, because what goes into the premise and theory doesn’t change week-to-week on the way to 50-40 in an extended sample size, or in a smaller 10-game sample-size glimpse.
Like life, it’s all just one long bet, with various steps along the way, as we aim for an edge that would result in a record around 55% long-term.
How did our “fantasy team” do last week?
They sucked.
2-8
Couldn’t gain a yard if they tried… unless it was an under, in which case, they were the greatest player ever.Each Sunday, we pick out 10 players that are valuable bets to either over-perform or under-perform expectations. It’s way better than hoping everyone has a big game. With an eye on being profitable each week, and considering that a “win,” we assign each play to a fantasy football position, with our reasoning in easily-digestible point form.
QB1: Jordan Love - Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-110 at DraftKings)
Love hurt his groin against the Jaguars, and pushed to play against the Lions in the rain, going without a passing touchdown in each game.
Coming off a bye week to get healthy
2+ passing touchdowns in:
The first five games of this season
Eight of nine games to end last season
Both Packers’ playoff games last season
QB2: Anthony Richardson - Over 39.5 rushing yards (-110 at Bet365)
The Colts’ benched Richardson, showing they can live without him, so it’s time for him to use his skillset to differentiate himself, even if it’s an injury risk
5.9 yards per carry
3-1 to the over on 39.5 rush yards in games he’s had six or more carries this season
The Jets’ pass rush has forced quarterbacks to scramble lately
From the Week 11 RUMP:
“Drake Maye scrambled for 46 yards and a touchdown. Kyler Murray had two touchdown runs last week, and even CJ Stroud had a career-high 59 yards scrambling.”
RB1: Nick Chubb - Over 15.5 rush attempts (-120 at FanDuel)
Chubb hasn’t been lightly used in the three games since returning from a devastating knee injury
11, 16 and 15 carries
Last game, the Browns trailed the Chargers 20-3 in the second quarter
With a pass-first, trailing game-state, Chubb played just 28 snaps, but still had 15 carries
Off a bye, and against the Saints’ 31st-ranked run defense (5.1 yards per carry allowed), Browns should lean on Chubb as they “get back to Browns football”
RB2: Travis Etienne - Over 14.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)
After missing all or parts of four games, Etienne out-snapped Tank Bigsby vs. The Vikings, for the first time since Week 4
Etienne averaged 28 yards receiving last season (476 yards)
With just 111 passing yards in his first start for the Jaguars, Mac Jones looked for short throws to the tight ends (eight completions)
Jones should take easy completions in a game (with a 14-point spread) Jacksonville should be trailing in
Ezekiel Elliott and Rhamondre Stevenson combined for 89(!) receptions in Jones’ last season with the Patriots
WR1: Zay Flowers - Over 61.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Steelers allow fourth-most yards per opponent pass attempt to wide receivers
Flowers has four 100-yard games this season
In close games, Lamar Jackson averages 37.6 pass attempts, compared to 20.0 in games Baltimore wins comfortably
As 3-point road favorites, against division-rival Steelers, expect a close game
Flowers had six carries in first seven games, but the Ravens haven’t used him in the running game since
May be saving those plays for a big game
At 7.8 yards per carry, but a 3-yard difference in this total and his receiving yards, we’ll play the rushing + receiving yard market
WR2: Tyreek Hill - Under 70.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)
Raiders are T-9 in yards per pass attempt allowed, and fifth in total yards versus wide receivers
Held Ja’Marr Chase to 43 yards on seven reception in their last game
Hill, questionable with a nagging wrist injury, caught three passes for 16 yards
Expect Dolphins to try to re-establish running game
WR3: Calvin Ridley - Under 4.5 receptions (-114 at FanDuel)
With 10, 5 and 5 receptions in three games since DeAndre Hopkins was traded, Ridley’s total is inflated
Will Levis will struggle to push the ball downfield against the Vikings’ complicated pre-snap schemes
TE: Davis Allen - Over 2.5 receptions (+116 at FanDuel)
Rams weren’t getting much production from the tight-end position
Starter Colby Parkinson had just 23 catches for 213 yards in eight games, despite many of those games without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua
Coming out of the Rams’ bye, they’ve shifted personnel usage at the position:
With his usage trending up, second-year tight end out of Clemson, Davis Allen, caught five passes on six targets in his first game with a significant workload
FLEX: Audric Estime - Over 12.5 rushing attempts (-110 at Bet365)
Javonte Williams: 3.8 yards per carry this season
Broncos flipped their tailback usage last week
Team-leading 26 snaps for rookie Estime after 23 total snaps all season
14 carries against good Chiefs’ run defense (3.7 YPC allowed)
Sean Payton: “He’ll continue to get more reps”
Denver (-2.5) favored over Falcons (18th in opponents’ YPC)
More likely to need to run out the clock late
Estime had five carries on final drive in Kansas City
SUPER-FLEX: Christian McCaffrey - Under 82.5 rushing yards (+100 at Bet365)
3.0 yards per carry on 13 carries in first game back from Achilles injury
Seahawks’ run defense improved with better health of defensive interior
Allowing 4.2 yards per carry in last three games against Bijan Robinson, James Cook, and Kyren Williams
Rested off a bye
McCaffrey continues to be a threat in passing game, but struggles to get usual explosiveness and get to top speed behind the line of scrimmage
Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo could spell McCaffrey more this week
BONUS:
RATS (Round-robin Anytime Touchdown Scoring) Parlay:
David Njoku (+230)
Anthony Richardson (+180)
Brock Bowers (+250)
DK Metcalf (+175)
DeAndre Hopkins (+200)
1.1 unit: 10 0.1-unit bet of threes, one 0.1-unit bet of all five.
*Odds derived from FanDuel