NFL Week 12 betting: The “Player Prop Express”
10 player props and 5 RATS to parlay
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
It’s crunch time in fantasy football, and the overwhelming majority of fake teams, thrown together on a boozy early-September evening, are either 6-5 or 5-6 in the weekly coin-flipping exercise that helps drive the NFL’s popularity.
But, don’t look now, rosters are in flux and panic has struck the nation, for the first of TWO “Bye-mageddon” scenarios is upon us, with six teams taking some time for themselves this week.
Thankfully, there are 11 games left on Sunday, to fill our 10 roster spots. More reason as to why our football fantasy is better than their fantasy football.
How did our “fantasy team” do last week?
They might be in a slump.
3-7
Concern about division in the pretend locker room are wildly unfounded. Hopefully. Each Sunday, we pick out 10 players that are valuable bets to either over-perform or under-perform expectations. It’s way better than hoping everyone has a big game. With an eye on being profitable each week, and considering that a “win,” we assign each play to a fantasy football position, with our reasoning in easily-digestible point form.
QB1: Cooper Rush - Under 204.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Cowboys have a “package for Trey Lance”
Less snaps for Rush than in previous games
May be quicker to go to Lance to finish a blowout loss
354 passing yards last week, but on 55 attempts (6.4 YPA)
One attempt was 64-yard TD to Kavontae Turpin
5.4 YPA on other 54 attempts
At that rate, Rush would need 38 attempts to go over
Commanders’ improved run game with healthier Jayden Daniels keeps Cowboys off the field better than Texans did on Monday
QB2: Patrick Mahomes - Under 32.5 passing attempts (-110 at Bet365)
Mahomes averages almost 40 pass attempts in last four games - all close games
Chiefs are -11 at Carolina
Earlier in the season, Mahomes had <30 attempts four times, when they covered as a favorite in five of six games
Panthers’ run defense should encourage Chiefs to hand the ball off early and late
Carolina allowed 55 carries for 298 yards in their back-to-back WINS
RB1: Aaron Jones - Under 63.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Since star left tackle Christian Darrisaw was lost for the season against the Rams:
3.6 yards per rush (4.2 before)
Jones snaps down around 50% the last two weeks
Possible lingering rib injury
Cam Akers: 10 carries last week
RB2: Christian McCaffrey - Over 28.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Brandon Allen starting for Brock Purdy
All 49ers’ player prop totals are depressed - McCaffrey’s receiving yards total was 37.5 last week
McCaffrey had 68 receiving yards in season debut in Week 10, and provides easy completions for Allen
49ers’ are underdogs in Green Bay, expected to trail, forcing Allen to throw
WR1: Marvin Harrison Jr. - Under 52.5 receiving yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Cardinals’ 4-game winning streak came in three home games and one road game in Miami, and now go outdoors to Seattle:
Seahawks possess arguably the best corner duo in the league
Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon
Harrison has gone over this total just three times all season
WR2: Mike Evans - Over 54.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)
Evans claims that he was healthy enough to play in Week 10, but didn’t want to risk it with the Buccaneers on their bye for Week 11
When fully healthy, Evans’ receiving yards total is in the mid-to-high 60s
Without Chris Godwin, Evans should get more targets
Went 10-7 to the (higher-lined) over last year
Giants’ allowing 11.7 yards per completion in last three games
WR3: Kendrick Bourne - Over 26.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)
Patriots looking for reliable skill positions options for Drake Maye
Bourne’s last two games: 11 targets, nine catches, 131 yards (with a game missed in-between)
Maye has averaged 7+ pass yards per attempt in four of five games started and finished, but 8.9 per target to Bourne
7-point underdog Pats expected to trail and throw late
TE: Mo Alie-Cox - Over 2.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)
Lions lost linebacker Alex Anzalone to injury
Colts want to put Detroit LBs in coverage
With dual-threat run game of Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor, play-action passing puts opposing LBs in conflict
Alie-Cox had two receptions on three targets last week
FLEX: Joe Mixon - Under 21.5 rushing attempts (-110 at Bet365)
Titans allow just 4.1 yards per rush this season - the best run defense the Texans’ have faced
Nico Collins returned on Monday, but played just 30 snaps in easy win over Cowboys
With closer to full weaponry, Texans’ more likely to throw more and not rely on Mixon so heavily
Game may be closer than point spread suggests, forcing Texans to not rely on clock-churning, run-heavy drives late
SUPER-FLEX: Ameer Abdullah - Over 2.5 receptions (+102 at FanDuel)
Raiders’ depth chart ravaged by injury
Both Alexander Mattison and Zamir White are likely out
Leaves Abdullah and 6th-round pick Dylan Laube (New Hampshire) from depth chart
40% of veteran RB Abdullah’s career yardage have come via receptions
Caught all three targets last week, including two on final drive after Mattison was hurt
Minshew threw 43 times last week vs. Miami
Favored Broncos allow just 3.8 yards per carry
Abdullah had success as third-down back in previous meeting
3 recs, 5 carries, 51 total yards, TD
Note: Abdullah’s a prime candidate for receiving-centric ladder/milestone/SGP bets, as the possibility exists for a 5-reception (+550), 50-yard (+1200) game.
BONUS:
RATS (Round-robin Anytime Touchdown Scoring) Parlay:
Cole Kmet (+500)
Sam LaPorta (+210)
Hunter Henry (+320)
Jayden Reed (+180)
DK Metcalf (+150)
1.1 unit: 10 0.1-unit bet of threes, one 0.1-unit bet of all five.
*Odds derived from FanDuel