NFL Week 13: Best bets for Thanksgiving (and Black Friday)
Side/total, player props, touchdowns, ladders and a SGP for every game
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
Thanksgiving’s is the only holiday I’m jealous of. For those in the United States, you’re all set - sit back, TV on, and keep the food coming.
Whether you’ve got that setup or another time-honored tradition, it’s always made better by an absurd number of bets for the four games across Thursday and Friday.
Bears @ Lions (-9, 48.5)
The Bears didn’t just storm through the backdoor at home against the Vikings, they found their way into overtime, after being down 11 points with less than a minute to go. It marks the fourth time during their five-game losing streak (since the bye), that they’ve trailed by double digits. If they’re in a similar situation in Detroit, I don’t like their chances for a comeback. Though, someone out there does, as the opening line of +10.5 has been bet down.
That creates an opportunity to take the Lions under -10, leaving open the possibility for a win should Detroit extend a 7-point lead to a 2-score game late.
The Lions are no strangers to laying a big number at home, easily covering against the Titans and Jaguars in their only two home games since September. They’ve embraced the idea that if you come into Detroit unprepared to play, they’ll go out of their way to make you pay.
In this space, we’ve talked about leaning on the teams that know what they do best on short weeks. Despite the comeback effort against the Vikings, what’s your confidence in Matt Eberflus having the Bears ready for 60 minutes with Detroit on an extra-short week?
The Vikings drove it into the red zone seven different times against the Bears, and despite having struggled in the run game since Christian Darrisaw was lost for the season, Minnesota ran with great success on Chicago (4th-most yards per carry allowed).
The Lions, having been upset by the Packers in their traditional Thanksgiving game last year, are more than prepared for an inferior opponent this time around.
Pick: Lions (-9, -112 at DraftKings)
Caleb Williams: Under 229.5 passing yards (-105 at Bet365)
Two of the four times that Williams has gone over this passing yardage total have come in the last two games, but against the Packers, the Bears had just switched offensive play-callers and there was some added spirit in the offense. Last week, Williams threw for 340 yards but on 47 pass attempts at home against the Vikings, for a lower average per throw.
Since the Lions’ Week 5 bye, Detroit’s had a knack for not giving up much to quarterbacks despite blowing their team out. Dak Prescott had 178 yards on 33 attempts, Mason Rudolph needed 38 attempts to get to 266 yards, Mac Jones had just 138 yards, and Anthony Richardson managed just 11 completions.
Just because the Bears are expected to trail, doesn’t mean they’ll rack up yardage on the Lions the way they did against Minnesota.
Rome Odunze: Longest reception - Under 19.5 yards (-110 at FanDuel)
With just four legitimate targets for Williams (Odunze, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Cole Kmet), each receiver gets plenty of targets. However, in his last three games, of the 26 targets for Rome Odunze, just one has gone for 20+ yards.
Getting the ball to the rookie out of Washington is one thing, but doing so in explosive fashion has been a much taller task.
Tim Patrick: Receiving yards ladder (DraftKings)
The Lions are without Khalif Raymond, and while he’s not the same type of player as Patrick, it may mean the veteran’s on the field more than usual. Having missed two seasons with injury, Patrick’s connection with Jared Goff is improving, as he’s received four targets in each of the last two games - the most since Patrick’s Detroit debut in Week 2. Averaging 14 yards per catch, if Patrick can haul in three or more, he has a chance to go well over his prescribed total of 22.5.
Secondary receivers - Christian Watson and Jordan Addison - have had big statistical days against the Bears defense the last two weeks.
Over 22.5 yards (0.55 units at -110)
40+ yards (0.2 units at +260)
50+ yards (0.12 units at +425)
60+ yards (0.9 units at +700)
70+ yards (0.9 units +1100)
Roschon Johnson: Anytime touchdown (+250, FanDuel)
As part of the tweaks made to the Chicago offense, Johnson’s pretty clearly the Bears’ goal-line tailback, with seven touches in the red zone in the last two games compared to just one for D’Andre Swift. At +250, that’s a good price, even for the backup running back on a big underdog, given the confirmed scoring role Johnson has.
Cole Kmet: Anytime touchdown (+370, FanDuel)
Taking the Lions against the spread doesn’t preclude us from taking a long shot touchdown scorer from the Bears, and Chicago’s tight end is priced too long to pass up.
Kmet’s played 97% and 100% of the snaps in the last two games, and has been a prominent target in games against teams that play a lot of zone coverage - the Colts and Vikings. Since losing Aidan Hutchinson, the Lions have had to be less aggressive in coverage, meaning Kmet’s size may play well in the red zone against Detroit.
Sam LaPorta: Anytime touchdown (+240, FanDuel)
Speaking of using a tight end’s size, LaPorta’s had a touchdown in three of the last six games, and the Bears allow the most yards per reception to opposing tight ends in the NFL. LaPorta can be one of the most explosive weapons at his position, so he may be found for a touchdown from distance.
Thanksgiving special SGP:
Williams: Under 227.5 passing yards
Odunze: Under 18.5 longest reception
LaPorta: Anytime touchdown
+800 at FanDuelGiants @ Cowboys (-3.5, 37.5)
The lookahead line for this game was -2.5, predicated on the idea that the Cowboys were hopeless and the Giants had some.
One game for each later, and the line has crossed over the key number of -3, setting up a situation that would normally call for a fade of the Cowboys - regular Thanksgiving Day flunkies over the last two decades. Except for the overwhelming feeling that the Giants aren’t trying to win their remaining games.
That would be phenomenal news for those of us on the Giants at +1100 to finish with the worst record in the league, but also makes organizational sense. Having ejected their previous theoretical franchise quarterback, and no viable starter for 2025, getting the first overall pick in a year where Shedeur Sanders is available, is the only move for New York.
The Giants tipped their hand about how they felt about Tommy DeVito in the summer, when they signed Drew Lock to back up Daniel Jones. If they were playing well, and Jones got hurt, Lock would give them the best chance to win. He likely still does, which is why they’ve tabbed DeVito instead. But now DeVito’s status is up in the air, and Giants might have to play the better quarterback.
New York’s defense put up very little fight against the Buccaneers, allowing 450 yards (7.3 YPP), most coming in the first half, but the Cowboys spent most of the day in Washington doing what they could NOT to score (until two special teams touchdowns late). Which is why this total is as low as it is, and why Dallas is untrustworthy.
What the Cowboys have done well in their post-Dak Prescott circumstance, is play defense.
A 34-6 loss to the Eagles masks that Philadelphia only managed 5.4 yards per play, and converted touchdown drives of 17 and 37 yards. The next week, the Cowboys held the Texans to 20 points before the game was broken up by a defensive score. Before Terry McLaurin’s quasi-miracle touchdown last week, the Commanders had mustered just 4.9 yards per play.
DeVito was “only” sacked four times, and didn’t turn the ball over (Tyrone Tracy had the lone turnover), and yet the Giants only scored one fourth-quarter touchdown. If Lock plays, with minimal prep, that’s not putting him in position to succeed either.
The Cowboys got DaRon Bland back last week, just in time for Trevon Diggs to sit out the game in Washington, but with Diggs hoping to play Thursday, Dallas should keep the Giants’ scoring to a minimum, having dominated them when they saw Tommy Cutlets last year.
Pick: Under 37.5 total points (-112 at DraftKings)
Malik Nabers: Over 67.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)
It took a full half of football for Tommy DeVito to connect with Malik Nabers, and it was likely mentioned at halftime that it was in Mr. Cutlets’ best interest to throw the ball Nabers’ way. Subsequently, Nabers caught six passes for 63 yards in the second half alone. After the game, the star receiver expressed his irritation about it taking as long as it did to get him involved.
In the first meeting between these two, Nabers caught 12 balls for 115 yards, despite having already made it clear in the first three games of the season that the rookie from LSU should garner maximum attention. Whether DeVito makes it to the game, or Drew Lock gets involved, Nabers should be the offensive priority, but this total is in the 60s because of how badly the first half went for New York last week, and not the second.
Rico Dowdle: Longest rush - Under 16.5 yards (-120 at DraftKings)
After claiming they were going to do it for weeks, the Cowboys finally gave Dowdle a chance to be a legitimate featured tailback in a close game against the Commanders. The result? 19 carries for 86.
On the surface, that’s an efficient Sunday of work, but with a long rush of nine yards, Dowdle’s now only found enough space to run for more than 15 yards one time on his 112 carries this season.
Why is this number so high? The Giants have the worst run defense in the league (5.2 yards per carry), and have allowed a long rush to the opponents’ top tailback in six straight games. However, none of those teams had a torn up offensive line like the Cowboys do.
Tyrone Tracy: Receptions ladder (Bet365)
The Giants’ offense couldn’t have been more vanilla against the Bucs, but early in the game they tried to rely on Tracy to settle DeVito. After a game-opening 16-yard carry, it didn’t really work.
Late in the game, down 30-7, DeVito had to leave for one play and Lock came in for a play and threw it to Tracy. On the final drive, DeVito checked it down to the former college receiver three times, and Tracy finished with four catches.
Should they use Tracy in the passing game before things get out of hand, he may make a run at his season-high of six receptions that came against the Bengals.
3+ recs (0.6 units at +160)
4+ recs (0.2 units at +350)
5+ recs (0.1 units at +850)
6+ recs (0.1 units at +1400)
Wan’Dale Robinson: Anytime touchdown (+390, DraftKings)
In a game we think may lack scoring, we’ll shy away from the short-priced touchdown scorers and look for viable touchdown candidates at longer odds.
Robinson started the season with nine red zone targets in the first five games, but like the Giants’ offense as a whole, the goal line opportunities have dried up. The slot receiver is still on the field for more than 80% of the snaps, and is the type of talent that can get open for a relatively easy throw near the end zone, should the Giants feel like they can’t run it in from close.
Brevyn Spann-Ford: Anytime touchdown (+950, FanDuel)
After missing last week, Jake Ferguson (concussion) didn’t practice on Tuesday, seemingly making him a long shot to play on Thursday afternoon, and why would the Cowboys’ risk it if it was “close?”
When Ferguson doesn’t play, the tight end snaps get split pretty evenly between Luke Schoonmaker (+370) and Spann-Ford (+950). Schoonmaker’s odds are likely shorter because he scored last week, but the rookie out of Minnesota has seven targets in the last two games, and is just as likely to get a look in the red zone.
Thanksgiving special SGP:
DeVito: Over 22.5 rush yards
Nabers: Over 63.5 rec yards
Tracy: 3+ receptions
+850 at Bet365Dolphins @ Packers (-3.5, 48)
This line is battling between -3 and -3.5, an unsurprising sign that the market doesn’t know what to make of two teams that have been inconsistent.
Since Tua Tagovailoa came back from his concussion, the Dolphins have won three in a row (after two close losses), and it’s very attractive to take the points. Right up until you realize that a night game in freezing conditions at Lambeau Field is not something that’s traditionally suited the Dolphins. Despite an offense that’s been moving the ball light-years better with their starting quarterback at the helm, Miami hasn’t been able to get their ground game going.
Meanwhile, just because Jordan Love and the Packers play in Green Bay, doesn’t mean they’re suited for the winter conditions either. Josh Jacobs at least gives them a chance to be the team that succeeds on the “frozen tundra,” but Love’s deep-passing game isn’t ideal for this time of year.
Green Bay dispatched the 49ers without Brock Purdy, Trent Williams or Nick Bosa, but 4.9 yards per play and an inability to connect down the field left something to be desired. Meanwhile, the Dolphins’ defense has gotten better with improved overall balance, allowing just 4.8 yards per play in their last three games, while raising their pressure rate, as Chop Robinson had made a bigger impact in getting to the quarterback.
On a short week, in the cold, the Dolphins aren’t likely to find answers in their running game, while the Packers won’t allow as many free-running intermediate receivers as the Patriots and Raiders the last two weeks.
Pick: Under 48 total points (-110 at Bet365)
Tyreek Hill: Longest reception - Under 23.5 yards (-115, at Bet365)
Since the first game of the season - where he caught an 80-yard touchdown pass, Hill’s had only two other games where he’s caught a long pass. Part of that was due to poor quarterback play in Tagovailoa’s absence, but Hill’s also complained of a wrist injury in need of surgery, while going under his overall receiving yardage total in the last three games. Meanwhile, Tua’s looked elsewhere, with the emergence of Jonnu Smith, and a big game from Jaylen Waddle last week. In freezing conditions, look for the Dolphins to continue to get the ball out of Tagovailoa’s hands quickly, establishing their more ball-control passing game.
Dontavion Wicks: Under 35.5 receiving yards (-113, at FanDuel)
The assumption may be that, should Romeo Doubs be unable to play, it will mean more playing time for Wicks, but a study of Packers’ snap counts suggests that Bo Melton will likely see the field more.
If there’s no considerable change in Wicks’ usage, we know that he’s only cleared this total twice all season. When Doubs was suspended for the Packers’ Week 5 game, that Christian Watson also missed, Wicks only caught two passes for 20 yards against the Rams.
Tucker Kraft: Receptions Ladder (Bet365)
With temperatures down by kickoff, and wind gusts possible, the Packers should be looking to deploy a more intermediate passing attack (especially without Doubs), using play-action off the threat of Josh Jacobs. Whether that gets Kraft open, or should Jordan Love be forced into a controlled, drop-back setup, the Packers’ top tight end has been under-utilized lately.
After a stretch where Kraft had 31 targets in six games, he’s had just three in the last two, dropping his core over/under numbers in both receptions and yardage.
4+ recs (0.6 units at +125)
5+ recs (0.3 units at +300)
6+ recs (0.2 units at +650)
7+ recs (0.1 units at +1300)
Jonnu Smith: Anytime touchdown (+260, Bet365)
The Dolphins could have used Smith’s sudden production when their backup quarterbacks were desperate for a completion, but better-late-than-never when it comes to Tagovailoa’s new toy to play with in Mike McDaniel’s offense.
Smith has just one fewer catch, and 36 fewer yards than Tyreek Hill, and his fourth touchdown of the season came on a play designed for him to score against the Patriots. Maybe that was in the game plan to stick it to Smith’s former team, or maybe, with 50 targets in the last seven games, he’s a worthwhile target anywhere on the field.
Jayden Reed: Anytime touchdown (+170, FanDuel)
Like with Kraft, Reed’s another example of the Packers’ under-utilized offensive weapons. He started the season with four touchdowns in the first six games, his touchdown odds crept towards even-money, but he has scored just once since. Matt Lafleur should be looking to get their most elusive player into open space, after having gotten away from getting Reed the ball in the backfield. Look for the Packers to get back to using Reed in creative ways, and Love’s confidence in throwing it to him in the end zone hasn’t waned.
Thanksgiving special SGP:
Under 47 total points
Wicks Under 35.5 receiving yards
Kraft Over 3.5 receptions
+750 at Bet365Raiders @ Chiefs (-13, 42.5)
Based on previous point spreads and the team ratings associated with them, the expected point spread for this matchup is around -12.
Of course, that was when Gardner Minshew was to be behind center for the Raiders, but a broken collarbone has taken him out for the season. So, when the initial assumption was that Desmond Ridder would be forced into action on a short week, the line opened Chiefs -13.5.
Like the old Stratosphere rollercoaster, Vegas’s quarterback situation has turned around once again, with Aidan O’Connell’s hand healed and the second-year quarterback expected to go.
Does any of this matter? Is O’Connell any better or worse than Minshew? Is a move from -13.5 to -12.5 and back up to -13 going to be the difference between covering and not? Unlikely.
Especially considering what we know about the Chiefs and their inability to cover a big point spread. In fact, it’s been five games since Kansas City covered any number at all. Which means their power rating in the market is obviously too high.
Let’s try an exercise.
The Chiefs are rated in the mid-60s, and have been through that 5-game stretch, but what if they were rated as a purely average team (50/100) in that time? What would the point spreads have looked like?
The Chiefs would have gone 3-2 ATS with the help of topping the Bucs in overtime, and a missed short field goal on the final play against the Broncos, but they very easily could be 1-4 ATS in their last five games even if they had been rated like they’re the Rams, Seahawks, Cardinals, or Dolphins.
If that’s the case, would any of those teams be giving 13 points on Friday?
Because it’s the Chiefs, public bettors are undaunted by laying points against the Panthers, Broncos, or Buccaneers… or as many as 10 points at Las Vegas when this ATS losing streak started.
Even if the Chiefs hadn’t underperformed for a month since, taking the 9-point closing line between Kansas City and Las Vegas, would fairly translate to Chiefs -12 or -12.5.
Because the Chiefs have underperformed, and it likely doesn’t matter who’s starting at quarterback for the Raiders, there continues to be value fading K.C. at a big number, and likely another reason why the line has dropped from the open.
Pick: Raiders +13 (-110 at Bet365)
Aidan O’Connell: Under 36.5 pass attempts (-115 at DraftKings)
Our two core player props are built on the same fundamental concept - that this game (like most involving the Chiefs) will be closer than the point spread suggests, and that the Kansas City run game will limit the number of total drives for both teams.
Having O’Connell sit back in the pocket and sling it around all afternoon in Arrowhead seems like a bad idea, if the Raiders don’t absolutely have to do it. With their top two running backs out last week, Las Vegas was compelled to throw often, but rookie Sincere McCormick was successful in his first chance to play, and Alexander Mattison seems likely to return.
The Chiefs are also likely to get Isiah Pacheco back, and may be looking to reintegrate him, along with Kareem Hunt. The Raiders’ run defense is good enough to not get gashed, but Kansas City should have long, clock-chewing drives, keeping O’Connell off the field and limiting his chances, even if Las Vegas is even trailing with desperation.
Patrick Mahomes: Under 252.5 passing yards (-105 at Bet365)
The same theory applies to Mahomes, as this is the first time both Pacheco and Hunt will be on the field at the same time. Given the Raiders’ sneaky-decent pass defense, that held Mahomes to 6.9 yards per pass attempt in their first meeting, the Chiefs may focus on slowly building a lead and running out the clock, with little motivation to risk turnovers - the only method for Las Vegas to pull off an upset.
Xavier Worthy: Longest reception ladder (Bet365)
Should the Chiefs play a ground-heavy game, the biggest danger for Mahomes to go over his passing yards total is if he hits a long pass for a big chunk of yardage. He’s only connected with Xavier Worthy on a pass of 30+ yards just three times all season, but there’s been more than a few times they’ve come close, only to see Worthy step out of bounds or commit a drop.
While the Raiders have been good enough to slow opposing teams’ passing games, all it takes is one connection off play-action to have the speedy rookie come up with a big gain.
20+ yard reception (0.5 units at +100)
30+ yard reception (0.2 units at +275)
40+ yard reception (0.1 units at +600)
50+ yard reception (0.05 units at +1200)
Jakobi Meyers: Anytime touchdown (+350, Bet365)
Meyers missed two midseason games with an ankle injury, interrupting a stretch of seven games where he has been targeted 67 times or 9.6 per game. That would put Meyers fourth in the NFL in targets per game.
Even with the missed time, only 21 players have more targets, but only Tre McBride (0) has fewer touchdowns than Meyers’ two. At +350, Meyers is priced like the way his season has gone, not the rate he scored last season, which averaged out to touchdowns in half his games.
Noah Gray: Anytime touchdown (+333, Bet365)
After backing Gray in this space repeatedly, thinking the touchdowns were coming for a player regularly on the field and frequently open for large gains or in the end zone, the Chiefs “other” tight end has scored twice in each of the last two games.
Comforted by what seemed inevitable actually happening, it would have been nice to cash in one of those primetime games. While the payout for a Gray touchdown is no longer as juicy, we’re not going to risk another game goes by without having a bet on Gray to score, given there are enough weapons for the Raiders worry about it, even with Gray finally proving he’s a force to be reckoned with.
Thanksgiving special SGP:
Mahomes: Under 250.5 passing yards
O’Connell: Under 36.5 pass attempts
Meyers: Anytime touchdown
+2000 at Bet365Thanksgiving SGP+:
Tim Patrick: 25+ receiving yards
Tyrone Tracy: 25+ receiving yards
Tucker Kraft: 50+ receiving yards
Xavier Worthy: Over 18.5 longest reception
+5200 at DraftKings