NFL Week 13 betting: The “Player Prop Express”

10 player props and 5 RATS to parlay

Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.

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We’re riding high at THE WINDOW after concluding the Thanksgiving Football Spectacular by casually dropping a 50-1 winner in the player prop SGP+ market, that cashed when Xavier Worthy (a now automatic first-ballot WINDOW Hall-of-Famer) got every yard he could to go over 18.5 on a fourth-quarter reception on Black Friday.

You never know where the big wins will come from, but it’s nice to reward our patience as we responsibly bet, one outcome at a time, the plays in this space.

Unless… we otherwise indicate that there might another multi-game prop parlay worth a shot.

How did our “fantasy team” do last week?

Back on the rails!

6-4

Plus, we pegged Ameer Abdullah as a prime ladder-bet candidate.

Each Sunday, we pick out 10 players that are valuable bets to either over-perform or under-perform expectations. It’s way better than hoping everyone has a big game. With an eye on being profitable each week, and considering that a “win,” we assign each play to a fantasy football position, with our reasoning in easily-digestible point form.

QB1: Kyler Murray - Over 21.5 pass completions (-115 at DraftKings)

• Murray’s gone over 21.5 pass attempts in four for his last six games

  • One under was blowout win over Jets

  • One under came in low-scoring game vs. Chargers

• Vikings have allowed 5th-most pass completions per game

  • Teams looking to throw quickly against high-blitz percentage Minnesota defense

QB2: Jalen Hurts - Under 30.5 pass attempts (-120 at DraftKings)

• Hurts has stayed under this number for seven-straight games

• Total is inflated because Eagles are underdogs and potentially forced to throw more than during their winning streak, but the Eagles are committed to running with Saquon Barkley and Hurts has been anxious to use his legs

• Hurts may connect deep, more than once, against poor Ravens’ pass defense

• Eagles’ defense will try to limit Ravens’ explosive plays, allowing extended, time-consuming drives

RB1: Jonathan Taylor - Under 93.5 total yards (-115 at DraftKings)

• 35 carries for 92 yards rushing since Anthony Richardson re-took the starting quarterback job

  • Suggests teams are crowding line of scrimmage, daring Richardson to beat them through the air

• With Richardson playing, Taylor’s impact in the receiving game has been near non-existent

  • Four catches on just eight targets in five full games played by Richardson

• Patriots’ run defense improving - 3.6 YPC allowed in last three games (Dolphins, Rams, Bears)

RB2: Tony Pollard - Under 16.5 rush attempts (-115 at Bet365)

• Tyjae Spears (concussion) expected to play

  • Pollard’s rush attempts with healthy Spears: 16, 17, 6, 22, 9, and 9

    • Week 4’s 22 attempts came with big lead at Miami and backup quarterback in for Will Levis (Spears had 15 as well)

    • Titans are 6-point underdogs - not expected to have lead late

• Commanders’ pass defense has slipped throughout the season and Titans have shown explosive pass game since Levis was put back in as the starter

WR1: Drake London - Over 63.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)

• Chargers missing two starters in the secondary

  • Have allowed big pass plays and 60+ yards to wide receivers in their last three games (at home)

    • 62 yards to Zay Flowers and 40-yard touchdown to Rashod Bateman

    • 16 recs, 225 yards to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins

    • 5 rec, 84 yards, 2 TD to Calvin Ridley

• Targeted at least seven times in last nine games (played through injury in the other two)

  • Falcons come off bye after blowout loss

WR2: Ja’Marr Chase - Over 6.5 receptions (+100 at DraftKings)

• 7+ receptions on 11+ targets in last four games

• Joe Burrow has 50+ pass attempts in each of the last two games, both close

  • Bengals just 3-point favorites

• Bengals should struggle in run game against Steelers (5th in YPC allowed)

• Offensive line injury issues should result in quick throws to get the ball in Chase’s hands

WR3: Davante Adams - Under 20.5 longest reception (-115 at Bet365)

• The length of the Seahawks’ cornerbacks provide difficult matchup for Adams

• Rodgers has been averse to throwing down the field

  • Adams has two long pass receptions since joining Jets

    • One was versus zero-coverage blitz late in game versus Texans

    • One came against the Colts’ poorly rated corners

• Seahawks’ improved run defense, allows the secondary to not bite on play-action/double-moves

TE: Evan Engram - Over 46.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)

• 45 targets in six games (7.5 per game) since returning from injury

  • Averages 9.1 yards per reception with Trevor Lawrence

  • Averages 6.2 yards per receptions with Mac Jones

• In Week 10, with a trailing game state at Philadelphia, Lawrence playing, Christian Kirk out, Engram had 10 targets

• Texans allow 10.9 yards per reception to opposing tight ends

FLEX: Taysom Hill - Over 28.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)

• Since Derek Carr returned from injury, Hill is 3-0 to the over in receiving yards

• Targeted 10 times in the Saints’ last game before the bye

• Rams allow 8th-most yards per reception to opposing tight ends and 7th most to opposing running backs

SUPER-FLEX: Jonathan Brooks - Over 10.5 rushing yards (-110 at Bet365)

• Brooks made career debut last week with just five snaps but two carries

  • Previous RB2 Miles Sanders is out for the season

  • Panthers should look to get second-round pick more involved with offense as the season goes on

• Buccaneers allow 4.7 yards per carry

• With this low total, 3-5 carries should be enough to go over

Note: Brooks is a prime candidate for receiving-centric ladder/milestone/SGP bets, as the possibility exists for a 20 (+250), 30 (+650), or 40+ (+1300) yards rushing.

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BONUS:

RATS (Round-robin Anytime Touchdown Scoring) Parlay:

• Drake London (+170)

• Tee Higgins (+130)

• T.J. Hockenson (+240)

• Rachaad White (+150)

• Mark Andrews (+200)

1.1 unit: 10 0.1-unit bet of threes, one 0.1-unit bet of all five.

*Odds derived from FanDuel

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Week 13 SGP+

Pat Freiermuth: 40+ receiving yards
Geno Smith: 20+ rushing yards
Travis Etienne: 4+ receptions
Saquon Barkley: 30+ receiving yards

+9700 at Bet365