NFL Week 14 betting: The “Player Prop Express”

10 player props and 5 RATS to parlay

Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.

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It’s a make-or-break week in real fantasy football with playoff hopes on the line throughout the land, as you could sell a team manager a win for a pretty penny.

We don’t have that same kind of stress. It’s just another day in sports betting, where we hope the team we put together this weekend can put money into the accounts.

How did our “fantasy team” do last week?

6-4. 

Back-to-back weeks. Just in time for a fake playoff run.

Each Sunday, we pick out 10 players that are valuable bets to either over-perform or under-perform expectations. It’s way better than hoping everyone has a big game. With an eye on being profitable each week, and considering that a “win,” we assign each play to a fantasy football position, with our reasoning in easily-digestible point form.

QB1: Baker Mayfield - Under 32.5 pass attempts (-108 at FanDuel)

• Since Chris Godwin injury, Mayfield’s thrown more than 32 passes in two of five games:

  • 50 attempts in a game they trailed throughout versus the Falcons

  • 33 attempts last week in an overtime game at Carolina

• Buccaneers have developed a good running game with emergence of rookie Bucky Irving and incumbent starter Rachaad White

• Favored Bucs expected to nurse a lead late

• Raiders are T-8th in opponents’ yards per pass attempt

QB2: Brock Purdy - Over 20.5 pass completions (+106 at FanDuel)

• Prior to last week’s snow game, Purdy was 4-6 to the over 20.5 pass completions

  • But 4-2 in close games, with two unders coming in games with 30+ attempts

  • Purdy completes 67.7% of passes for his career

• Short point spread that’s moved toward Bears suggests close game

• With Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason out, 49ers may rely more on Purdy

RB1: Chuba Hubbard - Under 52.5 rushing yards (-110 at Bet365)

• Massive mismatch between Panthers’ offensive line and Eagles’ defensive line

• Big 13.5-point spread suggests blowout and trailing game-state for Carolina

• Rookie second-round pick, Jonathan Brooks went from eight snaps to 15, and had six carries to Hubbard’s 12 (for 43 yards) in last week’s loss

  • Panthers may give Brooks even more looks

RB2: Kendre Miller - Over 27.5 rushing yards (-106 at FanDuel)

• Second-year tailback was often in the doghouse of former coach Dennis Allen due to Miller’s injury issues

  • Ran for 51 yards on just nine carries this season

• With Allen gone, interim head coach Darren Rizzi has pledged to see what the Saints have in former TCU star as he returns from IR with something to prove

• Giants’ star defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence is out for the season

• Giants allowed season-best efficiency to Rico Dowdle last week

  • Worst run defense in the NFL

• Both Alvin Kamara and Miller should get extensive rushing carries

WR1: Jaxon Smith-Njigba - Over 63.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)

• Smith-Njigba has gone over this total in five straight games

  • Including six receptions on seven targets in rainy conditions vs. Cardinals

• Seahawks are underdogs on the road in good passing conditions

WR2: Khalil Shakir - Over 54.5 receiving yards (-115 at Bet365)

• Prior to snow game last week, Shakir’s gone over this total in four of his last five games (six receptions for 50 yards in the other)

• 7+ targets in six straight games

  • Josh Allen unlikely to go away from Shakir even with potential return of Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman

• Rams allow fourth-most yards per pass attempt in NFL

WR3: Elijah Moore - Over 4.5 receptions (+100 at FanDuel)

• In first game without Cedric Tillman (concussion), Moore received 25% of all Jameis Winston targets against the Broncos, catching eight

  • Broncos (4th in NFL in opponent’s yards per carry) stopped Browns’ run game, forcing 57 passes

  • Steelers are 5th in YPC allowed (4.1)

TE: Chigoziem Okonkwo - Over 22.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)

• Has gone over this total or had four targets in six of last seven games

• Season-high six targets last week

• Titans’ deep-ball offense is a bad matchup for Jaguars’ primarily man-to-man defense

• Jaguars allow fifth-most yards per reception to opposing tight ends (11.5)

FLEX: Cam Akers - Under 26.5 rushing yards (-115 at Bet365)

• After 29 carries in first three games (comfortable wins) in return to the Vikings, Akers has three and four carries in the past two games (healthier Aaron Jones)

  • 10 fewer snaps per game

• Falcons allowing 3.7 yards per carry in their last three games

  • Despite losing to Saints, Broncos, and Chargers

• Falcons among worst teams in the NFL at creating pressure

  • Sam Darnold should have time and success in the passing game

SUPER-FLEX: De’Von Achane - Over 29.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)

• Since Tua Tagovailoa’s return for the Dolphins, Achane:

  • Has caught 34 of 38 targets (5.66 recs per game)

  • Is 4-2 to the over on 29.5 rec yards

• Achane is rushing for only 3.4 yards per carry

  • Miami rushing for 2.9 YPC in last three games, and just 4.0 for the season

• Best way to keep Achane involved has been to throw to him

• Jets haven’t played many teams that focus on throwing to a tailback

  • Faced 49ers without McCaffrey and Bills without James Cook

  • Allowed five receptions for 40 yards to Tony Pollard

  • Allowed five receptions for 80 yards to James Conner

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BONUS:

RATS (Round-robin Anytime Touchdown Scoring) Parlay:

• Brock Bowers (+200)

• David Njoku (+250)

• Darnell Mooney (+260)

• Jonnu Smith (+200)

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+185)

1.1 unit: 10 0.1-unit bet of threes, one 0.1-unit bet of all five.

*Odds derived from FanDuel

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Week 14 SGP+

Kenneth Gainwell: 30+ Rush yards
Parker Washington: 4+ Receptions
Kendre Miller: 40+ Rush yards
Jalen McMillan: 40+ Rec yards


+6173 at Bet365