NFL Week 15: Best bets for Sunday
Believing in something, cozy conditions, and a big rest advantage
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
Decades (…Years? Months? Weeks?!?…) from now, when we’ve all figured out the whole time-travel thing, sportsbooks won’t just offer a “cash out” for your in-progress bets, they’ll have “From the future” options.
Here’s how that might look:
“We’ve been to the future, and are here to tell you that the Bills score 42 points against the Rams. How would like to proceed?
Double your bet
Stand pat
Cash out
Between this example, “Chiefs up 13-0 at halftime”, and several other games where tickets we held in-pocket were considerably more advantageous than the live lines in the second-half, had this technological innovation existed last week, it would have been a bigger blood bath.
We’re be doubling down like we’ve got an 11 at the blackjack table as the dealer’s showing the three-of-hearts.
It’s just another reminder to review your bets and evaluate whether you were in good position when it was time for the final cards to be played, even if the subsequent reveals go badly.
Underdogs bet against the spread via the Week 15 RUMP:
Browns (+4)
Patriots (+6)
Steelers (+5.5)
Seahawks (+2.5)
Raiders (+4)Bengals @ Titans (+5, 42.5)
The Bengals saved their season on Monday night, with thanks to the Cowboys finding another way to lose - unable to take advantage of what should have been an upset-earning special teams play.
Looking at the schedule, with upcoming home games against the beatable Browns and a Broncos team they’re chasing for the last AFC Wild Card, Cincinnati can talk themselves into a path to the playoffs, for now.
Much of the interest in the Bengals at a similar spread last week stemmed from their record against the bad teams in the NFL. Consistently losing heavyweight tilts doesn’t necessarily translate into struggles against the league’s lightweights, and with just two point-spread covers all season, that’s where Tennessee is as the season closes.
There’s hope the Titans will be healthier than last week, but allowing 220 yards to Mac Jones, especially when much of his efficiency was on targets to No. 1 receiver Brian Thomas, doesn’t bode well for stopping Joe Burrow throws to both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
The concern is always Cincinnati’s defensive issues, but if Will Levis couldn’t do more than 4.4 yards per play against another bad team playing out the string in the Jaguars, why should we expect them to be able to score with the Bengals this Sunday?
Pick: Bengals (-5, Bet365)
Dolphins @ Texans (-3, 43)
In general, this late into the season, we’d like to lean on teams coming off a bye, where possible. The Texans should be much fresher than the Dolphins, who’ve experienced both winning and losing streaks of three games since they had Week 6 off.
Miami escaped with victory at home over the Jets last week, and a loss might have sent their estimated market rating plummeting to that of a below-average team. Meanwhile, the Texans have slowly dropped from an offseason expectation point that was right there with some of the contenders in the AFC. Lacklustre play hasn’t prevented the Texans from taking a comfortable lead in the AFC South, but after dragging to the pre-bye finish line with losses to the Titans and a hang-on win in Jacksonville, they should look at this finishing stretch as the time to get-right before the playoffs.
We haven’t seen the best of the Texans yet this season. While we’re not sure what that actually looks like - Super Bowl contender? Possible first round exit? - their average market rating suggests that they’re only a couple points better than Miami. That isn’t all that high, and even just an “OK” peak performance should be enough to beat the Dolphins somewhat comfortably.
Pick: Texans (-3, -105 at Bet365)
Jets @ Jaguars (+3.5, 40.5)
Call it aging “athlete” recognizing the game of an aging actual athlete, but my theory that Aaron Rodgers might play his best game of the season in Miami based on the warm environment wasn’t exactly disproven with a 27/39, 339-yard game last week. Lo-and-behold, the Jets are back in Florida this week for New York’s last warm-weather game against a woeful outfit.
The Jaguars outlasted Tennessee because the Titans let them. Jones’ 220-yard day also featured a pair of interceptions, maintaining a season for Jones where his only two touchdown throws have come in garbage time against the Texans. Plus, after missing last week, it looks like Sauce Gardner is back to put the clamps on Brian Thomas.
While they’ve covered two straight, the market isn’t buying into Jacksonville, still rating them among the worst teams in the NFL. Meanwhile, like last week, the Jets’ market rating is still the lowest it’s been all year - a quite different scenario than when they were expected to be an above-average team, and thus, prime fade material.
With a trio of cold-weather games on deck, look for Rodgers to take advantage of his last cozy atmosphere, maybe of his career.
Pick: Jets (-3, -118 at DraftKings)
Colts @ Broncos (-4, 44)
Both the Colts and Broncos are coming off their late-season bye week - the only Week 15 matchup pairing two teams with full rest.
Who do we trust more to have buttoned things up during their time off?
For me, that’s Sean Payton and Bo Nix, whose offense has done nothing but improve throughout the course of the season. However, the Broncos’ market rating is still right at league average (confirmed by a lookahead line of +3 at the Chargers next Thursday night). This market has underrated Denver all season. They’ve covered every time they’ve been favored, which shows bettors have been willing to acknowledge the Broncos are better than the subpar teams in the NFL, but underestimating their ability to pull away from them.
Week 13’s cover over the Browns was lucky in the end, but a good defense giving up that many points can be attributed to the hole in the secondary created by Levi Wallace’s pylon impression. Surely, Vance Joseph will have that addressed during the bye, even if Riley Moss isn’t able to return.
As for the Colts, their zone-based coverage is something that can be handled with preparation, and I’m trusting Payton to have Nix throwing into the available holes, while the defense takes advantage of the Colts once they’re forced into a pass-first attack on the road with Anthony Richardson.
Pick: Broncos (-4)
Best bet on Substack: We’ve shouted out his work before, but
’s work on NFL home-field advantage, “I Think I Figured Out Why NFL Home Field Advantage Disappeared!” provided an interesting discovery about turnovers this season, and why we need to keep dropping average HFA in our point spread projections.By-the-numbers bet (6-8):
Where possible, we’ll include a bet on a point spread that’s gotten away from our scope of expectation, but where I don’t have a viable on-field case for a bet.
Giants (+16.5, -110 at DraftKings) over Ravens
If you experienced the Saints-Giants last week, hoping there would be only a few points, you got what you wanted, but you still had a bad time. A grim game didn’t make anyone involved look good. As a result, the line for Ravens-Giants continues to creep higher and higher, as there’s little reason to like the Giants on the field, and, as a result, our estimated market rating for New York has plunged through the artificial floor we set at 20/100.
When last we saw the Ravens, though, they were losing at home to the Eagles, held to just 12 points through 59 minutes and 52 seconds. Yet, if we stabilize the Giants’ EMR at 15/100, a 16-point road favorite would need to be rated well into the high-70s, which would be the highest mark for the Ravens all season - a strange occurrence given their mediocre last game.
Total of the week (7-6-1):
Cowboys @ Panthers: Over 43 total points (-110 at Bet365)
The Panthers were fixin’ to be up in the top section of our weekly look at the best bets, but you’re now paying the same amount of juice for -2.5 than you were for the moneyline early in the week, as interest in the Panthers has skyrocketed since they were 14-point underdogs last week. However, if Carolina is going to win and cover, I think they can and will score against a Cowboys’ defense that had no moves for Ja’Marr Chase six days ago, and have now lost one of their top performers this season in DeMarvion Overshown, while Micah Parsons’ will appears to be broken.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ offense isn’t lighting the world on fire, but their run game has improved a great deal since finally committing to giving the ball to Rico Dowdle. The Panthers’ run defense is notoriously terrible, so even if the Cowboys do stumble in this game defensively, they should be able to do enough to help this go over a low total.
Teaser of the week (5-8):
Commanders -1.5 / Bills +8.5 (6-point teaser, -120 at DraftKings)
On the surface, the Saints’ appear to be running another version of a preseason roster out this week, with Derek Carr, Taysom Hill, and Chris Olave likely still out. New Orleans market rating surely reflects that. However, it’s not quite that grim, as they have a healthier offensive line, and a few defenders that weren’t available during the portion of the season where they got repeatedly blown out. That’s enough to dissuade me from laying the points with the Commanders, but it doesn’t mean I want to back the Saints either. So, let’s get back to basics, and cross the key numbers with teaser leg number one.
For the second, we’ll opt to do the same in reverse, teasing the Bills up through +3, +6, +7, and +8. Coming off a loss, where their quarterback performed so well that Josh Allen’s MVP odds shortened anyway, Buffalo should be able to score against a Lions’ defense that’s still somewhat pieced together with castoffs and practice squad players, and who had a hard time sustaining pressure for 60 minutes in their close home win over the Packers.
With the kids jingle belling and everyone telling you, “Be of good cheer!” It’s the most wonderful time of the year.