NFL Week 15 betting: The “Player Prop Express”

10 player props and 5 RATS to parlay

Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.

---

Harsh, FanDuel:

One pass completion - or an iota of competitiveness from the Bears - can be the difference between a third straight 6-4 week, or not.

How did our “fantasy team” do last week?

5-5

Great news - we didn’t miss the playoffs, since there aren’t any.

Each Sunday, we pick out 10 players that are valuable bets to either over-perform or under-perform expectations. It’s way better than hoping everyone has a big game. With an eye on being profitable each week, and considering that a “win,” we assign each play to a fantasy football position, with our reasoning in easily-digestible point form.

QB1: Patrick Mahomes - Over 35.5 pass attempts (-114 at FanDuel)

• Mahomes has gone over this total in six of the last seven games

• Line move from -6.5 to -4 suggests an expectation for (another) close game

• Chiefs have opted not to deploy a run-heavy offense against teams with poor run defenses (Carolina, Las Vegas), instead rely on Mahomes

QB2: Drake Maye - Over 249.5 passing + rushing yards (-110 at Bet365)

• 5-2 to the over in games Maye has started and completed

• Patriots coming out of rare late-season bye, while Cardinals have lost three straight after their bye week

  • Allowing 7.2 yards per pass in those three games, which might allow for more than Maye’s average of 6.6

RB1: Chase Brown - Under 66.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel)

• Since Zack Moss’s injury put Brown in the position of undisputed primary tailback, he’s averaged 4.27 yards per carry against five teams that have collectively allowed 4.28 yards per carry this season

• The Titans allow 4.1 YPC to their opponents

• Brown’s had 14 or fewer carries in three of his last four games

  • 14 x 4.1 = 57.4

• Joe Burrow should be able to take advantage of the Titans’ injuries in the secondary

  • Bengals hand the ball to tailbacks on just 31% of offensive plays

    • Since Week 13 bye: 24.5% vs. Steelers, 25.4% at Cowboys

RB2: Justice Hill - Over 13.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)

• Hill played 50% of the snaps in Week 13

  • May get more snaps with Derrick Henry getting more rest than usual in what should be a comfortable Ravens’ win

• 8-5 to the over

• Giants’ defense allowed five receptions for 35 yards to Alvin Kamara last week

WR1: Khalil Shakir - Over 54.5 receiving yards (-115 at Bet365)

• 5-2 to the over on this number in Shakir’s last seven games

  • One “under” came against the 49ers in the snow

    • Still had seven targets

• Bills are rare underdog, making it more likely they’re in trailing game state

  • Shakir was targeted eight times in trailing game state vs. Rams last week

• Lions allow second-most receptions and receiving yards to opponent wide receivers

  • Defensive injuries have limited Lions’ ability to create pressure

WR2: Mike Evans - Longest reception: Over 22.5 yards (-115 at DraftKings)

• Evans has caught a pass of 23+ yards in four straight games and 21+ in seven straight

• In their last five games, the Chargers have allowed long receptions to top receivers like:

  • Calvin Ridley

  • Ja’Marr Chase

  • Tee Higgins

  • Zay Flowers

  • Four other support receivers as well

• Two of three Chargers’ top corners are rookies

  • Vulnerable to getting beat deep by top WRs

  • May be running into “rookie wall”

WR3: Brandin Cooks - Longest reception: Under 15.5 yards (-120 at DraftKings)

• Has caught just four of 10 targets since returning from injury, with Cooper Rush at the helm

  • Longest reception has been 11 yards

  • Six other Cowboys have caught passes of 20+ yards in the last three games

• Panthers’ defense:

  • Held the Eagles (DeVonta Smith) to just one reception of more than 15 yards last week

TE: Jonnu Smith - Under 45.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)

• Texans allow fewest receptions to opposing tight ends

• Tied with the Jets at 6.23 opponents’ targets per game

  • Jets didn’t allow a reception to Jonnu Smith until overtime

  • Tua Tagovialoa targeted Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle 26 times last week

• Two of Smith’s recent big statistical games came against the Raiders and Packers

  • Only two teams allow more yards per game to opposing tight ends than both

FLEX: Tank Bigsby - Under 54.5 rushing yards (-110 at Bet365)

• Bigsby needed 18 carries to get 55 rush yards versus the Titans

  • Out-carried Travis Etienne 18-4, but Etienne played 47% of the snaps performing more efficiently

• Jets allow fifth-fewest yards per rush

• Jets are favored, and just had their best offensive game of the season in Miami

• Jaguars never trailed by more than a score last week due to inept Titans’ offense

SUPER-FLEX: Brian Robinson - Over 4.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)

• Austin Ekeler is on IR with concussion

• In the games Ekeler’s missed, Robinson has:

  • Three catches for 12 yards in Week 4

  • One catch for six yards in blowout win over Titans in Week 14

• Robinson missed the second half against the Cowboys and was rested in Week 14 win, but is expected to have a “full workload” at New Orleans

---

BONUS:

RATS (Round-robin Anytime Touchdown Scoring) Parlay:

• Adam Thielen (+220)

• Noah Gray (+380)

• Dyami Brown (+360)

• DeVonta Smith (+230)

• Tim Patrick (+390)

1.1 unit: 10 0.1-unit bet of threes, one 0.1-unit bet of all five.

*Odds derived from FanDuel

---

Week 15 SGP+

JuJu Smith-Schuster: 25+ receiving yards (+175)
Dyami Brown: 40+ receiving yards (+170)
Kenneth Gainwell: 25+ rush yards (+290)
Stone Smartt: 40+ receiving yards (+240)

+9800