NFL Week 16: Best bets for Saturday & Sunday
A wintry mix of faves, ‘dogs, and a pair of pick’em games
It’s good thing we were willing to bet a few favorites in Week 15.
The Jets, Bengals, Texans and Broncos all got home for us last week.
But our commiseration is directed towards another favorite that won outright in far more dramatic fashion than ever seemed possible. The Commanders were a prime teaser-leg target, because of how rarely a team wins by one point in the NFL. When they were up 20-7 in the fourth quarter, there really wasn’t much reason to watch Washington close out a win against the toothless Saints. Even a comeback would result in a 21-20 Saints’ win, or a 23-21 Commanders’ escape.
So when Spencer Rattler lived up to his last name, and helped New Orleans score three different times, including a touchdown to get within one, we were rattled. Then interim Saints’ head coach Darren Rizzi went for the win on a (failed) 2-point conversion and the die was cast. For a second straight week, the teaser loses on one leg, by a half-point.
Underdogs bet against the spread via the Week 16 RUMP:
Broncos (+3)❌
Jets (+3.5)
Titans (+3.5)
Bears (+7)
Cowboys (+4)Steelers @ Ravens (-6.5, 45.5)
If you thought we were going to get a moment to breathe, lest we forget that even the debut of the College Football Playoff isn’t enough to stop the NFL from hitting us with a double-header on Saturday. We break down how to bet Texans-Chiefs below and elaborate on the Friday episode of THE WINDOW podcast, since it’s a far more complicated handicap. Meanwhile, Steelers-Ravens is simpler, if not maybe somewhat surprising.
You’re supposed to just blindly back the underdog in this rivalry, especially with as many points as Pittsburgh’s getting here, and the fact it beat Baltimore already. However, the Ravens had 6.1 yards per play to the Steelers’ 4.1 in the earlier matchup. Amidst Baltimore’s struggles to defend the pass, Russell Wilson could only muster 181 yards and 4.5 yards per pass.
Subsequently, the Ravens allowed just 218 yards to Justin Herbert and 118 to Jalen Hurts, as Baltimore’s opponent yards per attempt number has dropped from 7.4 to 6.9.
How did the Ravens lose the games against the Steelers and Eagles? Much of it had to do with the much-publicized issues for Justin Tucker, who left six points off the board in Pittsburgh and seven more against the Eagles, effectively the difference in each game. Maybe Tucker’s just toast (he didn’t have a field goal attempt last week, out of the Ravens’ bye), but the Ravens have shown signs of solving one issue (the pass defense) and Tucker’s reliability feels like an even easier fix.
The Steelers stole some games early in the season with Justin Fields going 4-2, then came the breath of fresh air of Russell Wilson and five straight wins with moderate success with a deep-passing attack. But we might be starting to see some holes in the Steelers’ offense, and the injuries to key players have been piling up with George Pickens missing another game, making this the right spot to lay under a touchdown with the better team.
Pick: Ravens (-6.5, -105 at Bet365)
Cardinals @ Panthers (+5, 47)
After five relatively impressive games - three of them one-score losses to playoff-calibre teams - the Panthers were bestowed the honor of favorite against the Cowboys, and it did not suit them.
Does a game where they looked a lot like their old selves mean that those previous five games should be wiped from the record books?
It’s easy to say “same old Panthers,” but now that they’re back to being a home underdog, they’re in a more comfortable roll for anyone who can believe they can again be as feisty as they were against the Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Eagles.
The Cardinals snapped their 3-game losing streak, but allowing 6.3 yards per play to the Patriots is more concerning than nearly losing a touchdown on a fumble that ALMOST went through the back of the end zone for a touchback.
The Patriots ran for better than 5.0 yards per carry on the Cardinals, which bodes well for a Panthers’ offense that needs Chuba Hubbard to be effective on the ground. The Cardinals should also be able to run on the Panthers, since everybody does, but the Panthers have enough to make this a close game.
Pick: Panthers (+5, -112 at DraftKings)
Eagles @ Commanders (+3.5, 45.5)
Is it possible the Eagles are still underrated?
Here’s the case:
A 2-2 start features one of the wildest sentences in recent hindsight, “Kirk Cousins sped the Falcons down the field in the final minute for a win in Philadelphia.” That happened. Two weeks after all that was needed to close out Atlanta was either Saquon Barkley catching an easy pass or a couple of “brotherly shoves,” the Eagles lost in Tampa Bay without AJ Brown, DaVonta Smith, and Lane Johnson. Philadelphia hasn’t lost since.
Those two losses lumped Philly in with a surprising Washington start atop the NFC East, and stuck the Eagles behind the Lions (and maybe the Vikings) in the NFC hierarchy. Also, Kansas City took a while to lose until the Bills made their statement over the Chiefs, rocketing up the market’s ratings.
While winning all of these games, the Eagles spent much of their downtime bickering with everyone they could find, including each other, and the media is way more interested in that, than a casual win over teams like the Browns, Panthers, or Rams.
So, here we are, with the Eagles possibly the best team in football, but they’re not rated like it. If they were, they’d be -4 at Washington, before getting into where the Commanders should fit into all of this.
You could likely do this with almost every team in the NFL, but the Commanders are a 2-point conversion and successful Hail Mary away from being 7-7 instead of 9-5, and that’s without mentioning they also won a game this year without scoring a touchdown.
Oops, I guess I just did.
Since the Jayden Daniels glow-up week against the Bengals and Cardinals, the Commanders’ wins are Browns (Watson), Panthers (1-6 at the time), Bears (Hail Mary/haven’t won since), Giants (no wins since October 6th), Titans (Titans), and Saints (Haener/Rattler).
What if the Commanders are just an average team, good at beating the bottom end of the league?
Combine that with our hypothesis that the Eagles are every bit as good as the Ravens and Bills, and you’ve got a projected point spread closer to -6, which makes Philadelphia a valuable bet even at more than a field goal.
Pick: Eagles -3.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Vikings @ Seahawks (+3, 43.5)
It’s been all good news regarding Geno Smith’s knee - the most important singular body part to the NFL playoff picture this week.
Give credit to the Packers for finding the vulnerability in the Seahawks’ run defense, taking the ball to start last Sunday night’s game and exploiting it immediately, getting up 14-0 before Seattle had run a fifth play.
For the rest of the game, the Packers had 243 yards. Meanwhile, the Seahawks had 196 despite losing Smith early in the second half.
It’s easy to think that Seattle was blown out at home last week, but we don’t know what might have happened once the Packers’ offense slowed down, and if, down 10, Smith was still in the game and healthy, considering they had seven drives with Sam Howell at the helm.
The Vikings dispatched the Bears on Monday, but that ends a 3-game home stretch that needed a comeback over the Cardinals and saw themselves tied at 21 through three quarters with the Falcons nine days before Atlanta benched their quarterback. As a result, Minnesota’s rating in the betting market has never been higher this season, making them an even bigger road favorite than the Packers were last week.
Pick: Seahawks (+3, -105 at DraftKings)
Jaguars @ Raiders (-1.5, 40)
Wait, so we can bet against a team who should be going out of their way to lose and we don’t have to worry about laying any points?
Is THIS our collective Christmas gift?
With five teams at three losses, including the Jaguars, it would be an organizational failure of the highest level if the Raiders win this game, or any other all season.
They’ve turned to Desmond Ridder. They’ve shut down Maxx Crosby. They didn’t call a single play to get the ball in Brock Bowers hands in the second half on Monday night. They made no adjustment after getting a punt blocked, and the identical thing happened later in the game.
It’s weirder than Mac Jones’ general on-field vibe, but the Jaguars are actually trying. They outlasted the Titans, holding them out of the end zone, and then nearly beat a Jets team that have had their best offensive success of the season over the last two weeks.
More relevantly, they still have the better talent on the field and an actual NFL head coach who knows he’s not going to be back next year, so he has no reason to try to improve Jacksonville’s draft position, and neither does the organization since a quarterback isn’t atop their needs list next April.
Pick: Jaguars ML (+100)
49ers @ Dolphins (-1, 44.5)
It’s nice that both Kyle Shanahan and Mike McDaniel get to play this game in good conditions (though there is SOME rain in the forecast!), but give me the teacher over the student in a game between two teams that need a minor miracle to make the playoffs.
The 49ers still have a lot to prove to themselves as they try to avoid a losing season, and until they’re eliminated, I expect the best effort out of their stars, especially after something of an embarrassing loss at home last Thursday night.
With a second game for Dre Greenlaw, paired with Fred Warner, the 49ers’ defense forces Tua Tagovailoa into the throws that San Francisco knows he’s uncomfortable with. While the Brock Purdy-George Kittle combination, has a big game against the Dolphins who invite the third-most targets to opposing tight ends this season.
It’s been well-documented in this space that I’ve been voluntarily down on the Dolphins all season long, whereas any disinterest in the Niners has been due to their injury-related circumstances. Miami’s rating is still that of a league-average team, while the market’s sold the 49ers’ down to that level, which is too low of an expectation in a game they should get up for.
Pick: 49ers ML (+100)
Best bet on Substack: I stumbled upon an interesting read from , with an interesting comparison, “Are social media platforms the next dying malls?”. I know, kind of a stretch, and maybe I’m feeling it because of how relatively quiet malls are this time of year, but give it a read if only for the sub-heading “Many malls, like social media platforms, became magnets for lurkers, losers, and toxic behavior of all sorts”. I hear ya.
By-the-numbers bet (6-9):
Where possible, we’ll include a bet on a point spread that’s gotten away from our scope of expectation, but where I don’t have a viable on-field case for a bet.
Texans (+3.5, -115 at DraftKings) over the Chiefs
I was all fired up to dig into why the Chiefs were still worth a bet with Carson Wentz at the helm, but I guess Patrick Mahomes is just fine?
What does that mean though?
Mahomes was 19/38 for 159 yards last week, and he’s had a QBR over 70 in just three games all season.
With the understanding that Mahomes is good to go on Saturday, the betting market has sent the Chiefs right back up into the low-60s in our estimated market ratings - a place that set them up to lose bettor seven straight games against the spread.
Total of the week (8-6-1):
Patriots @ Bills: Over 46.5 total points (-108 at DraftKings)
For teams playing the Lions, point spread covers the following week have been hard to come by. The Texans had an extra day of rest and managed to cover in Dallas. The Packers did it with 10 days rest last week. That’s basically the list of teams who could outperform expectations the week after playing Detroit. The Bills have their chance this week, but that’s asking them to win by three scores.
What will it take for the Patriots are to stay competitive in Buffalo, against a team that has just scored 42 and 48 points, and has scored 30+ in eight straight?
If you chalk the Bills up for their usual 30, the Patriots need to score 17 to even think about covering +14, and that would put the game total at 47.
As we know, Buffalo’s issues are on defense, and a week after colliding with the Lions, they might be vulnerable to more scoring than you might expect from the Pats.
Of course, even 21 points for New England might not be enough to cover a point spread of +14, since the Bills are capable of making it three games in a row of 40+, which should cash this bet with ease.
Teaser of the week (5-9):
Falcons -2.5 / Bengals -2.5 (6-point teaser, -120 at DraftKings)
We’re supposed to be on the Giants in their game with the Falcons.
An estimated market rating of under 20/100 is usually a trigger.
A rookie quarterback getting his first start laying well over a touchdown isn’t something that’s going to be profitable long-term.
However, if the Falcons can get something explosive out of their quarterback, their recently depressed rating is probably too low. Since we lean more to an underrated side that’s actually proven they’re capable, we want to find a way to bet on the Falcons, fading the idea that the Giants even want to win.
For the second leg, we’ll take the Bengals down through the key numbers, as Cleveland’s issues are far more than the turnovers attributed to Jameis Winston. That said, Cincinnati’s defense is always going to keep the backdoor open in games where the Bengals are a big favorite, and the Browns’ defense played well enough against the Chiefs to maybe slow their division/in-state rival. Hopefully, buoyed by Thursday night’s beneficial result for their solitary, elaborate path to the playoffs, the Bengals won’t succumb to the same teaser-loss that the Commanders did last week.
Out of all the reindeers, you know you’re the mastermind. Run, run, Rudolph, Randolph ain’t too far behind.