NFL Week 16 betting: The “Player Prop Express”

10 player props and 5 RATS to parlay

This is our championship.

The final two weeks in the NFL are rife with roster uncertainty, and the later in the season, the longer sportsbooks take to post a full complement of player props.

Throw in some bigger fish to fry - a Saturday triple-header in Week 17, the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff kicking off on the following Tuesday, and our resources are better saved elsewhere than to be pouring over Sam Darnold’s game log.

As a result, at 77-73 on the season, this is our fake fantasy football team’s final “game,” with season-long profitability on the line. Like the real pretend football contest, this final week will result in the season being a grand success, or we’ll experience the true feelings of self-loathing that fantasy football was designed to induce.

How did our “fantasy team” do last week?

5-5

BUT… how about those RATS?! Three out of five of our anytime touchdown scorers found the end zone for a net win at 8-to-1 odds.

Each Sunday, we pick out 10 players that are valuable bets to either over-perform or under-perform expectations. It’s way better than hoping everyone has a big game. With an eye on being profitable each week, and considering that a “win,” we assign each play to a fantasy football position, with our reasoning in easily-digestible point form.

QB1: Matthew Stafford - Longest pass completion - Under 35.5 yards (-110 at DraftKings)

• Below-freezing conditions and high winds expected at the Meadowlands on Sunday

• Stafford hit Puka Nacua with a rare long completion after a coverage breakdown in San Francisco, for just the fourth long completion to Nacua or Cooper Kupp this season

• Rams’ passing game should consist of a high-volume of short passes

QB2: Jayden Daniels - Under 214.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel)

• Eagles’ defense held Daniels to 5.96 yards per pass attempt in first meeting

  • 60 of Daniels’ 191 yards came on final garbage-time drive

  • Of Daniels’ other 131 passing yards, 81 were on passes to Austin Ekeler

    • Ekeler’s on IR, and the Commanders’ remaining tailbacks don’t have the same receiving skill level

• Eagles ran 40 times for 228 yards in first matchup

  • Philadelphia’s becoming known for their time-consuming drives, and should be able to keep the Commanders’ offense off the field

RB1: Jahmyr Gibbs - Under 18.5 rush attempts (-110 at DraftKings)

• Inflated yardage and attempt total because of loss of David Montgomery

  • Last year, Montgomery missed three games:

    • Week 3: Gibbs had 17 carries for 80 yards (4 carries for Craig Reynolds)

    • Week 7: Gibbs had 11 carries for 68 yards (3 carries for Reynolds)

    • Week 8: Gibbs had 26 carries for 152 yards (14 carries for Reynolds)

  • Gibbs won’t necessarily get 100% of the carries, but is explosive enough to beat a yardage total of 91.5

RB2: Bijan Robinson - Over 3.5 receptions (+140 at Bet365)

• Caught 4+ passes in half of the Falcons’ 14 games this season

  • +140 odds suggest an implied probability of 41.7% (an 8.3% edge)

• Rookie Michael Penix more likely to get set up with easier throws to Robinson than Cousins (a veteran with more pocket confidence)

WR1: Marvin Harrison Jr. - Over 49.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)

• The last five defenses that Harrison has faced:

  • Patriots (Christian Gonzalez)

  • Seahawks twice (Devon Witherspoon/Riq Woolen)

  • Vikings (Stephon Gilmore)

  • Jets (Sauce Gardner)

    • It’s no wonder Harrison has averaged 48.4 yards per game in these games

• CeeDee Lamb didn’t seem to have any issues with the Panthers’ secondary last week

  • Nine receptions for 116 yards

• 4.5-point spread, and recent history, suggests Panthers play a competitive game, forcing Cardinals to be aggressive

WR2: Ricky Pearsall - Longest reception: Over 13.5 yards (-110 at DraftKings)

• In their remaining three games, expect the 49ers to give more looks to their rookie first-round pick who joined the team late (because he got shot)

  • Has played at least 50% of the snaps in every game played

  • Four targets in the rain versus the Rams last week and a 16-yard catch

• 4+ targets in half of Pearsall’s games this season

  • One other game was in the snow

  • One other game was with Brock Purdy out

  • One came in quick blowout over the Bears

• Pearsall averages 11.8 yards per reception

WR3: Terrace Marshall - Over 5.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)

• After being activated midway through the season, Marshall on the field more after the injury to DJ Turner, playing a season-high 36 snaps last week vs. Falcons

  • Marshall has a reception in each of the last two games for six and seven yards, respectively

• In his two games in the role of No. 3 receiver, Marshall’s only played with Aidan O’Connell for a handful of snaps on the road at Tampa Bay

• O’Connell’s been greenlit to return on Sunday, and will be trusted more aggressively in the passing game than Desmond Ridder, against Jaguars’ league-worst defense in opponent yards per reception

TE: Chig Okonkwo - Over 27.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)

• Okonkwo in games started by Mason Rudolph:

  • 13 targets (4.3 per game) for 102 yards, 28+ yards in two of three games

• Okonkwo in full games played by Will Levis:

  • 2.9 targets per game, 28+ yards in two of nine games

• Eight of 10 targets last week came after Rudolph took over from Levis in the second half

  • Okonkwo finished with eight catches for 59 yards

FLEX: Zach Charbonnet - Over 17.5 rushing yards (-110 at Bet365)

• Kenneth Walker’s expected to return, pushing Charbonnet to backup role

  • When Walker’s started, Charbonnet still averaged 25 snaps per game

• Charbonnet’s averaged over six yards per carry in the two games Walker just missed, after Walker averaged 3.2 YPC in four games prior

  • Charbonnet should still have a role in the offense

• During recent 3-game home stretch, the Vikings allowed more than four yards per carry to opposing running backs

SUPER-FLEX: Dorian Thompson-Robinson - Over 25.5 rush yards (-110 at Bet365)

• Last season Thompson-Robinson had three starts, running for 20+ yards in each game (averaging 5.4 yards per carry)

  • Opponents’ defense faced: Ravens, Steelers, Broncos

• Week 7, in relief of Deshaun Watson, DTR had 44 yards on just three carries

  • Played 48% of snaps

• Last week, in relief of Jameis Winston, DTR ran three times on 14 snaps played for 5.4 YPC

• If he plays a full game, he should run at least six times, and at 5.4 YPC, clear 25.5 rush yards

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BONUS:

RATS (Round-robin Anytime Touchdown Scoring) Parlay:

• Adam Thielen (+200)

• Sam LaPorta (+195)

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+200)

• Jauan Jennings (+190)

• Brock Bowers (+185)

1.1 unit: 10 0.1-unit bet of threes, one 0.1-unit bet of all five.

*Odds derived from FanDuel

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Week 16 SGP+

Isaiah Likely: 40+ receiving yards (+200)
Jahmyr Gibbs: 40+ receiving yards (+200)
Daniel Bellinger: 30+ receiving yards (+160)
Brian Robinson: 20+ receiving yards (+270)

+8558