NFL Week 17: Best bets for Christmas (and Boxing Day!)
‘Tis the season for a Santa sack of bets on a trio of football games
“No days off” - Bill Belichick, the Ghost of Christmas Future (THAT’s where he gets the hoodie from)
Little did we know, the new coach of the North Carolina Tar Heels was always talking about the NFL’s eventually-exercised plan to let no holiday go off without a professional football game.
So, here we are, with a doubleheader set for Christmas Day - on a Wednesday (versus the semi-expected scenario when the calendar puts December 25th on one of the four days of the week the NFL’s already-claimed), and thankfully, it’s a good one. A quartet of AFC playoff teams all have varying degrees of “something” to play for.
Chiefs @ Steelers (+3, 44)
The Chiefs did it again, pulling off yet another one-possession win against the Texans on Saturday, with Patrick Mahomes’ traditional late-season ankle sprain being such a hindrance that he scrambled 15 yards for the game’s first touchdown.
🙄
The last two weeks have shown that the Steelers aren’t quite on the level of the top teams in the NFL with convincing losses to the Eagles and Ravens, but those defeats don’t mean they can’t compete with the Chiefs at home. Pittsburgh’s team rating has gone back down, while Kansas City’s - off two covers - has gone back up.
In order to determine value in the point spread, let’s work backwards from a point spread that makes the Steelers a home underdog (after two games where they were under a touchdown against arguably the two best teams in the league). If we don’t overreact, and drop Pittsburgh to 55/100 (an above-average, or Wild Card team) in our estimated market ratings, to get to Chiefs -2.5, Kansas City has to go all the way back up to 70/100 - a level that they haven’t been since they started their run of seven straight non-covers.
Simply put, the Chiefs rarely cover when they’re this high, but have beat the point spread when an extended ATS losing streak slowly drops their rating. Whereas the Steelers’ upgrade came at an unfortunate point in the schedule with two near-impossible road games.
On the field, the Steelers’ defense feels like a bad matchup for the much-maligned Chiefs’ offensive tackles. The hopeful answer to K.C.’s protection problems, D.J. Humphries lasted only slightly longer than a Santa slide down the chimney, so the weakness still exists. T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith should take advantage, in front of a road crowd that should give them every opportunity to jump Mahomes’ snap count.
It’s a classic buy-low on the home underdog (who expect to get a key player back on offense), against a Chiefs’ team that’s all-of-a-sudden back in the market’s good graces, despite some still uninspiring offense, and a new injury - the lower leg of defensive star Chris Jones.
The Steelers have hit the key number of +3 (-115), so you can feel good about backing Pittsburgh that way. Otherwise, at +2.5, they make for a great first-leg of a teaser ahead of the weekend where there’s just one matchup that pits one team still in the hunt for the playoffs and another that shouldn’t want anything to do with victory (and have looked like it lately).
Pick: Steelers +3 (-115) / Tease Steelers +8.5 with Colts -1.5 (2-team/6-point teaser, -120 at DraftKings)
Patrick Mahomes: Under 255.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
While the Chiefs are 6-1 on the road, they’ve made it work without much passing volume. Mahomes has averaged 263.3 yards per game at home, that number has dropped to just 214.6 on the road, going over 250 yards just twice, in strangely close games in Las Vegas and Carolina.
As much as Mahomes played well enough against the Texans, he needed 41 attempts to get to 260 yards, an actual improvement on the 5.8 yards per attempt he’s been averaging in his last four games.
With pressure expected to be prevalent all afternoon, collecting yardage in multiple large chunks will be a challenge.
Samaje Perine: Over 9.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)
With 25 receptions to 17 rushing attempts, Semaje Perine - excellent at pass-protection in his career - is the epitome of a third-down back. With the Steelers’ stars coming off the edge with abandon, Perine might be on the field even more than just on third downs. While playing between 19% and 32% of plays, Perine’s had 11 or more receiving yards in all but one of his last 11 games (and was targeted four times in that game).
George Pickens: Under 64.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)
Maybe Pickens’ doesn’t end up playing, and this gets voided, but we’ll bet against him being at his peak against the Chiefs, who allow the fewest yards per completion to opponent’s wide receivers. That’s attributed to the duo of Trent McDuffie and Joshua Williams on the outside.
Until he got hurt, Tank Dell was having the game of his life, primarily out of the slot, with Chamarri Conner out with a concussion. If Conner can’t go on Wednesday, an assortment of Steelers’ should be the better matchups for Russell Wilson than the banged-up Pickens.
Xavier Worthy: Anytime touchdown (+260, FanDuel)
The Chiefs’ are doing it again. After slowly turning Rashee Rice into a star last year, this time around it’s Worthy. He’s up to 80% of snaps over the last three games, has five catches in four straight, and 11 targets in back-to-back games. Combine that with his seven games with a touchdown (46.7%), and you have a decent edge at this price.
Pat Freiermuth: Anytime touchdown (+370, FanDuel)
Which slot receiver will have a big day for the Steelers? Why not the tight end?
Dalton Schultz scored on Saturday amidst eight targets.
Pat Freiermuth had a 3-game touchdown streak snapped in Baltimore, but he’s clearly become a red zone favorite of Wilson, with 19 targets since something of a breakout game in Cleveland.
Russell Wilson: Anytime touchdown (+700, FanDuel)
Darnell Washington: Anytime touchdown (+1200, FanDuel)
Justin Watson: Anytime touchdown (+1300, FanDuel)
Samaje Perine: Anytime touchdown (+1400, FanDuel)
Let’s sprinkle quarter-units on a feast of longshots.
On eye-test alone, you can see Wilson’s starting to feel better with his legs as he gets into midseason form, and the games have gotten more important. He’s run for double-digit yardage in three straight, but hasn’t snuck one in since his season debut.
Wilson went the big-target route with a touchdown to Cordarrelle Patterson last week. Darnell Washington hasn’t had a target in the last couple of games, but he’s played the same number of snaps, which suggests he’s been asked to stay in to block more against the Ravens and Eagles fronts. He could sneak out to provide Wilson another big option in the red zone.
Like Washington, Justin Watson hasn’t had a catch lately despite being on the field consistently. His lone target last Saturday was in the end zone, but the connection was just missed. With so many other receivers to worry about, Watson may be gifted another good chance on Christmas Day.
Why not add Perine into the mix? If the Chiefs are continuing to draw plays up for Perine on third downs, maybe one of those comes on third down near the goal line, to a receiver out of the backfield that Mahomes can trust, especially when he scrambles.
Ravens @ Texans (+5, 46.5)
The Ravens outlasted the Steelers, pulling away for a win that at least puts them on a path to winning the AFC North, which would considerably change their route to a potential Super Bowl, since it means the difference between going on the road on Wild Card Weekend versus hosting a second-tier AFC team.
More relevantly for us, the win at least supported the notion that they’re rated as the best team in the NFL. Inversely, Houston keeps disappointing relative to their standing.
The Texans’ offense continues to underwhelm, and now the injuries are piling up on both sides of the ball. All things considered, Tank Dell made one of the plays of the year, but that doesn’t help Houston here, as they’re down to one reliable receiver - Nico Collins, whom Baltimore can focus on. An already brutal offensive line saw Shaq Mason go down. Jimmie Ward was replacing Jalen Pitre, until he also got hurt. Meanwhile, Azeez Al-Shaair is still suspended.
Houston can get some of these guys back by the playoffs, and already have either the 3-seed or 4-seed (little difference between the two) locked up. Meanwhile, the Ravens get another rare chance to play on a fast track indoors with a ton on the line.
Pick: Ravens (-5)
Lamar Jackson: Under 29.5 pass attempts (-115 at Bet365)
The Texans have good numbers against the rush, but they haven’t faced a team who’s a force in the run game since taking on the Lions in Week 10. In that game, their big run-stuffing defensive tackle, Folorunso Fatukasi got hurt. He came back for all of six snaps two weeks. With Al-Shaair, Pitre, and Ward all out in the middle of the Texans’ defense, Derrick Henry should have a great game. When that happens, and the Ravens lead, they don’t need to do much throwing.
In the seven games where Jackson’s thrown 30+ times, the Ravens lost five and were in close shootouts with the Bengals in the other two. With the expectation that this game looks more like the Ravens’ win over the Chargers, Jackson shouldn’t be pressed to go over here.
Nico Collins: Under 94.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)
We faded Collins last Saturday, on the premise that the Chiefs wouldn’t let the Texans’ top target beat them and they didn’t. Of course, it helped that Bobby Slowik runs more failed wide receiver screens that Santa eats cookies. Because of that, we won’t fade the reception total, instead, banking on the Ravens to force someone other than Collins to beat them.
Mark Andrews: Anytime touchdown (+187, Bet365)
You can keep banging your head against the wall (like I have), hoping that Zay Flowers gets a ball thrown to him in the end zone, but it’s pretty clear that, after having flowers thrown on the grave of his career at the start of the season, Mark Andrews is the player Jackson’s looking for.
After the first five games of the season, where Andrews looked to still be adjusting to full-health after a brutal leg injury ended his 2023 season, the Ravens’ tight end has scored nine touchdowns in eight of 10 games. While he’s not 80% likely to score, it’s hard to make the case he’s just 34.8% (the implied probability of +187).
Lamar Jackson: Anytime touchdown (+230, FanDuel)
Here’s a bet handicap for you - I just like Lamar Jackson on the turf indoors.
The last time we bet on him to score - at the Chargers, he did, but I guess you need more than that?
Remember how we mentioned the war-torn middle of the Texans’ defense? If the backups in those positions are committing to Henry at or around the goal line, there should be ample opportunity for Jackson to pull it and go.
His other two rushing touchdowns came indoors (at Dallas) and in primetime (versus Bills).
Seahawks @ Bears (+3.5, 41.5)
The Seahawks just lost back-to-back home games (losing six games at a place alleged to have the best home-field advantage int he NFL) and effectively pushed themselves out of the playoffs before two road games to finish the season…
…and the point spread STILL moved their direction from a lookahead line of Seahawks -1.5.
THAT’s how little the betting market thinks of the Bears.
The Seahawks spent last Sunday shooting themselves in the foot. Zach Charbonnet (216 yards on his last 36 carries) had finally given Seattle a run game, so naturally he got one carry. They frequently opened up, or halted, drives with false starts on the way to 11 total penalties. Some of those infractions came on defense - a group that concluded their day by letting an unknown receiver by the name of Justin Jefferson (I hope I’m saying that right) find a massive hole deep in their zone for the game-winning touchdown.
All that is to say, the Seahawks have not shown any indication that they should be treated like they’re on the level of the Bears’ recent opponents (Packers, Vikings, Lions, 49ers, Vikings, Lions). Nor should we expect Seattle to come out with the type of start that would take advantage of how slow Chicago is to get going.
Give the Bears credit, they’ve been horrendous to start games, but they keep trying, even scoring not just “some” points but 14 of them in the first half against the Lions.
For the first time since Matt Eberflus was the head coach and Shane Waldron was calling plays, the Bears aren’t faced with keeping up with a multi-dimensional offense. Caleb Williams showed that he could manage to play a clean, efficient game against a simpler defensive scheme, throwing for 320 yards last week, and he hasn’t thrown an interception since mid-October.
With their lone chance to play a primetime game at Soldier Field this season, in the role of spoiler, look for the Bears to give the Seahawks everything they can handle, despite the market’s assumption that a desperate Seattle squad should be laying over a field goal on the road.
Pick: Bears (+3.5, -102 at DraftKings)
D’Andre Swift: Over 74.5 rush + receiving yards (-115 at Bet365)
The Seahawks’ run defense never really quite got it figured out this season. Josh Jacobs ran right through them to start the game two weeks ago, and Aaron Jones had a nice day on Sunday, both rushing and receiving.
Back when the Bears were competitive early in games, Swift was a threat to get chunks of yards on the ground and in the passing game.
Williams’ ability to avoid interceptions suggests that he’s a more conservative decision-maker than his reputation would have you believe. So, he may not be as likely to force throws down the field against the Seahawks’ best defensive asset - their corners.
DJ Moore: Over 5.5 receptions (+114 at FanDuel)
Yes, Moore will line up against Seattle’s corners, but I think his reception line reflects concern that he won’t get passes thrown his way, when, in reality, Chicago (with their left tackle out for the season) should throw it to Moore quickly and force the Hawks’ corners to tackle. The Bears’ theoretical No. 1 receiver has caught 6+ balls in six straight games, so I can’t pass up plus-money on a player (who’s been targeted 56 times in that stretch) to do it again.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Anytime touchdown (+185, DraftKings)
Twice this season we’ve asked Smith-Njigba to score as part of our weekly “RATS (Round-robin anytime touchdown scorers)” feature and both times he’s come through, so consider this blind faith in our guy. It’s also indicative that he’s Geno Smith’s guy as well. We watched Sunday’s game conclude with DK Metcalf giving up on a route that clearly infuriated Smith.
JSN has (five) touchdowns in four of his last seven games, and back-to-back games with a dozen targets. Given Seattle has no semblance of a running game, and might be in for a dogfight, there’s no reason to believe these numbers won’t continue, and Smith’s favorite target will be prominently involved.
D’Andre Swift: Anytime touchdown (+145, FanDuel)
The lead back, on a team we think has a chance to not only score a fair amount but win the game? At a plus-price? Sign me up!..
Roschon Johnson: Anytime touchdown (+430, FanDuel)
…And if Swift doesn’t score, it’s likely because Roschon Johnson (in his second game back from injury) got a short-yardage goal line carry. Remarkably, Johnson’s scored on over 12% of his total carries this season, so we don’t need many looks, we may just need one, so let’s throw a half-unit on him to score as well.
“Christmas Miracle” SGP+:
Freiermuth: 5+ recs
Schultz: 6+ recs
Cole Kmet: 4+ recs
+8090