NFL Week 17 Saturday: Best bets for a holiday tripleheader

A coaching mismatch, defense travels, and Rams run through grounded Cardinals

Dec 26, 2024

Sure, there was the assortment of socks, gift cards, sweaters, and various golf-related paraphernalia, but then Netflix rolled up in all its super-double-time 11K high-definition glory.

Clearly scarred by the reported buffering issues they had for Tyson-Paul, Netflix had ALL the servers firing on Christmas Day

The sharper the picture, the sharper the picks?

It sure felt that way. While we split the sides (despite all kinds of CLV in the early game), the player props went 4-1, and the anytime touchdowns? Well…

Between Xavier Worthy (+260), and quarter-units wagered on Justin Watson (+1300) and Russell Wilson (+700), followed by Lamar Jackson (+230) and Mark Andrews (+187), finding the house like Santa, we netted over 13 units on our wish list.

With such success, why not extend the holiday season to Saturday for the NFL’s playoff-contention trifecta?

Chargers @ Patriots (+4, 42.5)

It’s hard to tell whether the Patriots “hung around” in Buffalo last week, or the Bills fell victim to the post-Lions’ curse - where teams who play Detroit can’t cover the following week without extra rest to recuperate.

Whatever the reason, the Patriots have gotten attention from bettors this week, moving the point spread down from both a lookahead and opening line of -5.5 to -4.

Part of that move might have to do with the perception that the Chargers escaped last Thursday’s game with the Broncos, having been down 11 late in the first half, but L.A. can buy themselves a quasi-bye next week, since they clinch a Wild Card spot with a win in New England.

If you read the tea leaves - Bet365 and DraftKings have him listed in anytime touchdown markets - JK Dobbins looks to be returning for the Chargers. Don’t let last week’s final numbers for Gus Edwards fool you, the Chargers’ run game is drastically better when Dobbins is at full speed.

The weather is expected to be above freezing with little wind, so the team from L.A. shouldn’t be impacted. There is rain in the forecast, but the Chargers’ rocket-armed quarterback who played at Oregon should be able to throw it well enough against the Patriots’ secondary (anyone not named Christian Gonzalez).

Fundamentally, given how rarely Herbert turns the ball over, the only way the Patriots’ win is if, on short rest, they out-coach an unprepared Chargers’ team. That seems highly unlikely given the parties involved are Jerod Mayo versus Jim Harbaugh.

New England’s midseason turn to Drake Maye has resulted in optimism in Foxborough, but after three straight covers over the Jets, Titans, and Bears, the Patriots rarely played up to any kind of rating upgrade before being lined as 14-point underdogs last week.

The Chargers’ defensive numbers have dropped because their schedule got that much tougher, but this matchup more resembles those teams they played when they gained attention as one of the top units in the league, compared to the playoff-calibre teams they’ve played more recently.

Pick: Chargers (-4, -108 at DraftKings)

Justin Herbert: Over 14.5 rushing yards (-110 at DraftKings)

Up to and including the Week 14 game in Kansas City, where Herbert was banged up at the end of the first half, Herbert had 4+ rush attempts in five straight games. With his status in doubt the next week, Herbert didn’t run once in a blowout loss to the Buccaneers. Last week? Eight carries for Herbert, not including the designed run called for him on the Chargers’ first 2-point conversion attempt.

On what may be a sloppy day, Herbert should be a little more willing to tuck it and run against a Patriots’ defense that went a long time before facing a mobile quarterback this season, but has recently allowed 14+ rushing yards to Caleb Williams, Anthony Richardson and Josh Allen.

Drake Maye: Longest pass completion - Under 34.5 yards (-115 at Bet365)

Maye dropped one in the BUCKET to Kayshon Boutte two weeks ago in Arizona for a 37-yard touchdown.

Since his first start, Maye’s only other pass of 35+ yards came to noted speedster, Austin Hooper, in Miami.

While we’ve beaten up the Chargers for giving up long passes to star receivers - once they started facing players of that ilk, the Patriots don’t have that weapon on the roster. L.A.’s defense did a nice job shutting down the Broncos’ efforts at beating them over the top last week. Throw in a potentially soggy day, and a deep connection isn’t likely in the cards for Maye.

JK Dobbins: Anytime touchdown (+105, DraftKings)

IF Dobbins comes back, locking in a plus-price on a player who scored eight touchdowns in six of his 11 games this season, is worth doing, since it will be voided if he can’t go. In Dobbins’ absence, Edwards has swooped in for a trio of short touchdowns, so the opportunities are still there for whomever is the No. 1 Chargers’ running back on any given day.

Derius Davis: Anytime touchdown (+1200, Bet365)

He doesn’t play on offense much, but when Derius Davis gets a snap on offense, it’s usually with a purpose. After two targets in his first six games, Davis has caught a pass in six of his last seven. The speedy return specialist had a receiving touchdown last week, potentially earning himself more opportunity. With 10 carries on the season as well, he’s a threat from the edge of the red zone, and worth a half-unit if you can find him at this price.

Antonio Gibson: Anytime touchdown (+300, FanDuel)

Gibson played a season-high 43 snaps against the Bills last week, with 10 carries and four targets. That followed nine touches in Arizona. 23 touches in two games since the Patriots’ bye week far outpaces every game other than Week 6, when Rhamondre Stevenson wasn’t able to go. If New England’s making a point to get Gibson the ball a little more, he’s more likely to be the one with the ball in his hands near the end zone.

Kendrick Bourne: Anytime touchdown (+550, FanDuel)

Bourne might just be out there getting his cardio in, but he’s definitely on the field. He’s got just one touchdown on the season, but at a 70% snap rate, was on the field second-most (to Kayshon Boutte (+350 to score)) last week.

With no Patriots’ wide receiver having scored more than two touchdowns this season, it’s not like there’s a favorite target for Maye (Hooper leads the team with three REC TD), so why not target the confluence of high(-ish) usage and long(-ish) odds that Bourne brings to the table.

Broncos @ Bengals (-3.5. 49.5)

Based on how each team has been rated all season, the Bengals should be closer to -4, especially after they covered a big number as a favorite last week, while the Broncos flunked out in the second half as an underdog to the Chargers.

Counterpoint: The Bengals haven’t shown they can beat a good team, as their theoretical best win on the entire season is their escape from Dallas on a muffed blocked punt. While the Broncos don’t have a signature win either, they aren’t asked to win here.

Cincinnati’s win over the Browns last week seems comfortable if you just look at the scoreboard, but things could have gone drastically different if the Browns hadn’t inexplicably decided to give D’Onta Foreman his first two carries in two months on the 1-yard line of the opening drive. Foreman fumbled at the goal line, and never saw the field again in a game that was 17-6 late.

The Broncos’ backs are just as “against the wall” as the Bengals, after allowing the Chargers’ game get away from them, but a Denver offense that started the game with touchdowns on their first three drives should be able to score on Cinci in the same way the Steelers did the last time the Bengals played another playoff contender.

With an extra few days to game-plan for how to handle Ja’Marr Chase, Patrick Surtain as their x-factor and Riley Moss back in the lineup, the Broncos could shut down all hopes for those still talking themselves into the Bengals’ playoff chances before they likely fall apart the next day anyway.

Pick: Broncos (+3, +100 at Bet365)

Week 17 Round-robin Underdog Moneyline Parlay (1.1 unit - 10x3, 1x5):

Broncos (+150)
Panthers (+310)
Browns (+240)
Falcons (+170)
49ers (+155)

5-teamer odds: +23900

Marvin Mims: Over 23.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)

Four targets or 49 receiving yards. Those are Marvin Mims’ numbers over his last six games. Going into last week, those stats applied to Mims despite averaging just 16.4 snaps per game. Against the Chargers, that number almost doubled to 30 plays on offense. Mims has also had 11 rushing attempts in those games, which suggests a desire of Sean Payton to get him the ball. However, those run plays haven’t been successful, so, lately he’s calling fewer handoffs to Mims, and more throws.

Chase Brown: Under 17.5 rushing attempts (-115 at Bet365)

A late Gus Edwards’ run of 43 yards skewed the rushing numbers last week, where the Chargers’ starting tailback had 13 other carries for just 25 yards - numbers befitting a Broncos’ defense that’s second in opponent’s yards per carry.

Chase Brown may get loose for a long run, but his rushing attempts line is set high because the Bengals are favored and therefore expected to win more often than not. While they might, it’s unlikely to be in such a way that the Bengals are relying on him to run out the clock late.

Tee Higgins: Under 70.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)

With the Broncos’ secondary back at full-health, and all the Bengals’ stars with high totals, it’s probably worth fading one of Cincinnati’s big names. I’m just terrified of Burrow throwing it to Chase and then him weaving his way through the defense for 70 yards. So, instead, we’ll pinpoint Tee Higgins, who’s expected to suit up, but is nursing knee and ankle injuries. Outside of a 38-yard catch against a battered Titans’ secondary, all of Higgins’ production has come underneath the defense, and without much run-after-catch, so it’s going to be a challenge for him to top this total with an accumulation of shorter targets.

Marvin Mims: Anytime touchdown (+450, Bet365)

We played Mims last week, he didn’t score, and his odds have shortened.

That’s because he had a play run for him near the goal line (he was tackled at the 1-yard line), and later almost broke free of the grasp of Derwin James, for a long touchdown.

The tightening of Mims’ odds to score isn’t enough to have us back off though, against a far looser defense in Cincinnati.

Lucas Krull: Anytime touchdown (+1400, Bet365)

Nate Adkins: Anytime touchdown (+1400, Bet365/FanDuel)

Michael Burton: Anytime touchdown (+1800, FanDuel)

In the “H-back” category of Denver fullbacks and tight ends, Adam Trautman has the “most probable” odds of as low as +425, despite only having scored twice this season, and a snap distribution that sees each tight end with between 50-60 snaps over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, Nate Adkins has three scores, Michael Burton has one rushing and receiving, and Lucas Krull has more targets than all of them despite playing fewer games.

Taking a unit and splitting it across these three players creates a +400 bet (or +528) on a group that’s scored five times.

Krull: 0.33 units for net +4 units
Adkins: 0.33 for net +4 units
Burton: 0.33 for net +5.28 units

Knowing the Bengals’ defense, who’s to say more than one won’t find the end zone.

Drew Sample: Anytime touchdown (+750, Bet365)

The Bengals’ “Big Three” are all lined to score in a prohibitive way, especially against a really good Broncos’ defense. Brown and Chase have minuses next to their odds, and Higgins’ isn’t too far behind.

Burrow’s willing to throw it to the tight end, with four touchdown passes to that position this season. The trouble has been trying to figure out which one will get the looks each week.

Erick All’s out of the season, Tanner Hudson missed Sunday’s game and hasn’t practiced this week. Mike Gesicki played 19 snaps to Drew Sample’s 49 (season-high 88%) last week. While Gesicki’s role is pass-catching, Sample has a reception in five straight games and only twice all year has he not caught a pass that was thrown his way, making him worth a half-unit bet on the Bengals’ side.

Cardinals @ Rams (-6.5, 47.5)

There’s trying to handicap motivation, and then there’s just not having the horses to run the race.

The Cardinals were eliminated from playoff contention last week, and, at first blush, it looks like that’s the reason this line is so much higher than last week’s lookahead of Rams -3. After all, L.A. didn’t exactly dominate in their win over the Jets.

Then the injury reports started to dribble out on Tuesday:

Oh.

Both of the Cardinals’ starting tackles have concluded their season.

Arizona might be down to replacement-level running backs, and without a couple defensive starters as well.

So, if we’re going to reverse engineer it, a point spread of -6.5 becomes more explainable once the expectation is that the Cardinals might perform to the bottom of their range (the low-40s in our estimated market rating system). In fact, it’s starting to shape up a lot like a reversal of the Rams’ trip to Arizona in Week 2, when they were the team ravaged by injury and got blown out 41-10.

With the Rams needing one more win to clinch the NFC West, we’ll assume last week’s uninspiring game against the Jets was a win despite a low-end performance, and that their young defensive front will dominate this game, while the offense looks smoother against a Cardinals’ defense that’s fallen off towards the end of the season.

Pick: Rams (-6.5, -112 at DraftKings)

Kyler Murray: Under 228.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)

With both tackles out, Kyler Murray should be running for his life back there. At the time of this writing (due to the backfield uncertainty for the Cardinals), there are no rushing-yard lines for Arizona players, but even if there was, there’s no guarantee Murray makes it through the end of this game - either due to blowout, injury, or precaution.

With the Rams’ preferred style of offense being to run it on repeat and take long, clock-chewing drives, if Arizona isn’t able to adjust instantly, they may not have enough possessions and available yards to have Murray go over this total.

Blake Corum: Over 14.5 rushing yards (-110 at Bet365)

Naturally, it would help this bet if the game is out of hand late, and Corum can tear some garbage time carries away from Kyren Williams. Last week was the first time all season where Corum got five carries (or more) and didn’t get over 15 yards (5-0 to the over prior).

The Cardinals’ defense has allowed 5.9 yards per carry in their last three games - against the previously mediocre running offenses of New England and Seattle, plus last week’s 152-yard day for Chuba Hubbard.

Cooper Kupp: Anytime touchdown (+145, FanDuel)

Not that the Rams are just tuning up for an assumed playoff run, but it would be nice to get Cooper Kupp going. With a plan that’s probably run-heavy, maybe he doesn’t get over-fed between the 20s, but after a rainy night in San Francisco and a grim, chilly game against the Jets, getting back indoors should help Matthew Stafford and Kupp reconnect, ideally for their first touchdown since the last time the Rams were in the warm confines of SoFi Stadium.

Tyler Higbee: Anytime touchdown (+475, DraftKings)

Higbee made his season debut last week and scored on one of just 14 snaps played. It’s not like anyone laid claim to the Rams’ tight-end position while he was out (Cody Parkinson’s 19.2 yards per game notwithstanding). If last week was a warming period, Higbee should get more time on the field this week, and may find the end zone again in his home debut.

Blake Corum: Anytime touchdown (0.8 units at +500, DraftKings), Last touchdown (0.2 units +2000, FanDuel/Bet365)

If Corum’s getting more carries, he’s more likely to score than usual. Which isn’t hard, since he hasn’t scored yet. If this is a division-clincher, we know that Sean McVay would love to sit everyone in Week 18, which means this might be his best chance to get the rookie his first career touchdown.

“Holiday Hail Mary” SGP+:

Demario Douglas: 5+ receptions (+220)
Marvins Mims: 50+ receiving yards (+320)
Cooper Kupp: 80+ receiving yards (+410)

+6750 (FanDuel)