NFL Week 2: Best bets for Sunday
Trying to decipher what’s real and what was fake from Week 1
“Don’t say how much you like betting Week 2. Don’t say how much you like betting Week 2. Don’t say how much you like betting Week 2.”
- The superstitious part of me that doesn’t want to anger the Gambling Gods.
The term “value” doesn’t just apply to underdogs. It never has. Despite what you hear via various media outlets pretending to “talk betting.”
Results from the season-opening games - single, solitary contests that likely hinged on a turnover, a missed kick or a flip of the coin - are considered gospel all week long, and the market reacts, shifting a team’s power rating.
In Week 2, we take those results with a grain of salt, doing our best to decide what was real and what was a lie told to our eyes. If a team rating changed more than it should have, or didn’t change when it should, that creates value.
There are no guarantees even if we’re right, but getting even a half-point across a key number is enough to tip the scales of value toward a bet - favorite or underdog.
Underdogs to bet against the spread via the RUMP:
Titans +4
Vikings +5.5
Panthers +5.5
Saints +6.5
*Broncos +2.5
*Wait to bet on the Broncos. If the RUMP is still alive, it will close with the result of PIT-DEN, and an extra bet on Denver isn’t necessary.Giants @ Commanders (-1.5, 43)
The Giants and Commanders went into Week 1 with the same poor rating in the market, and they both were soundly beaten by three scores. Both teams’ rating might have dropped, but since they square off this week, we only know that they’re still equal to each other. That’s based on the line opening Commanders -2.5 and falling to a 1.5-point spread - the exact amount given Washington for home-field advantage.
With both teams sitting status quo in the market, I’ll revert to how I felt about both teams going into the season.
I have higher hopes for the Commanders this season, and a road game for a rookie quarterback isn’t enough for me to steer off that opinion. The Buccaneers were impressive defensively, and were able to take advantage of the Washington secondary.
The Giants’ offense was supposed to show some life with Brian Daboll calling the plays, but a shoddy offensive line led to a spooked quarterback, and it looked the same as in recent season’s for New York. That O-line won’t get any breaks from the Washington front-seven, and now has to deal with some energy from a home crowd that should be excited to see their new franchise quarterback (among the other new faces added by the Commanders’ organization). Is Daniel Jones capable of victimizing Washington’s secondary?
Jayden Daniels’ home debut should go better than his first real look at a high-level defense and a complex defensive play-caller in Todd Bowles.
Pick: Commanders ML (-116 at FanDuel)
Buccaneers @ Lions (-7.5, 51.5)
Speaking of the Bucs, Bowles was paraphrased as saying that this might be the fastest defense he’s ever had. That’s likely a result of getting their defensive draft picks from 2021-2023 on the field more, as the veterans from the Tom Brady-era have dissipated.
They still have Vita Vea in the middle of a defense that can stuff the run when he’s available. Critical, after we were reminded on Sunday night that the Lions’ offense works best when the running game is rolling. Tampa will need to stop the run with Antoine Winfield doubtful to play on the back-end.
The Lions were out-gained by the Bucs in their Divisional Round playoff game, but a pair of interceptions cost Tampa not just the win, but the cover. It’s just one game, but it seemed like new offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, provided Baker Mayfield with noticeably wide-open receivers. Coen comes from the Sean McVay’s Rams (OC in 2022) so he likely watched Sunday night’s game through a familiar lens. Tampa’s offense should score enough to stay within a number that might be inflated over a touchdown because of Winfield’s status, and the Bucs’ reputation before the season.
Pick: Buccaneers (+7.5)
Browns @ Jaguars (-3, 41.5)
The odds-making half of the betting market might have given the Jaguars positive credit even in a loss at Miami, since this line was projected to be a pick’em before Week 1’s games, and it opened Jags -3.5.
Conceptually, the Browns should be the valuable side, which is why it’s come down to -3. However, Cleveland was so soundly dominated by the Cowboys that they’re not only seeing their rating drop - from above-average to league-average - it might be not enough after Deshaun Watson still looked like a shadow of his former self.
Even if the Browns get back both offensive tackles that were missing last week, the Jaguars’ pass rush - buoyed by a big game in Miami from former first-overall pick, Travon Walker - can still win that battle.
The Browns’ defense was its usual strong self, but, as we know from last year’s splits, they had a tendency to be far less stingy on the road. The Jaguars can score enough to set up their defense to keep Watson tormented and pull away for a convincing win.
Pick: Jaguars (-3)
Rams @ Cardinals (-1, 48)
Down two members of their offensive line, and playing their third-string left tackle, the Rams’ offense actually got better. Sean McVay thrives on getting deep into the playbook and problem-solving on the fly.
The Cardinals were able to work their offensive script early in Buffalo, but after that, there weren’t many adjustments made as they came up with just one field-goal drive in the second half.
The Rams opened -2.5 in last week’s lookahead market, went to -1.5 on re-open late Sunday night, only to see the favorite flip, likely off of news that Puka Nacua won’t be available for four games.
While Nacua’s a key player that would be a difference-maker in a game against another playoff-calibre team, but McVay and the Matthew Stafford-Cooper Kupp combo should still be functional against a Cardinals’ defense lacking a pass-rusher remotely as dangerous as Aiden Hutchinson. Stafford’s 93.7 rating in 13 games against the Cardinals is the best against any opponent he’s faced more than six times, including two comfortable wins last year.
Pick: Rams ML (+100)
Bears @ Texans (-6.5, 45.5)
Last week, the Texans won but didn’t quite cover the closing number. While the Bears, won and covered, but didn’t quite look the part. If you didn’t touch either team’s rating from before the season started, the Texans would be -5.5 in this game.
But the eye-test told on the Bears, didn’t it? Is a half-point enough of an adjustment for what we witnessed from Chicago?
Caleb Williams played poorly (14/29, 89 yards), but the Bears saved themselves with a pair of defensive/special teams touchdowns - two scores that aren’t reliably projectable to this Sunday night. Williams goes from the comfort of a home game to what should be a raucous Houston crowd in primetime, anxious to make life miserable for the first overall pick, even if both Rome Odounze and Keenan Allen are able to play.
Meanwhile, C.J. Stroud will make the plays that Will Levis missed, particularly deep down the field, and the Texans were surprisingly good at generating offense on the ground with Joe Mixon in Indianapolis. Adding a reliable run game should allow Houston to salt away a lead they should have in the fourth quarter.
Pick: Texans (-6.5)
Best bet on Substack: reached out with some recommendations this week, and upon going through his Substack “Sports Passion Project,” I stumbled into his piece on Sam Darnold. As a sucker for statistical analysis that back-up my theories, if you want more reason to why Darnold might fit well with Kevin O’Connell, check it out.
By-the-numbers bet:
Where possible, we’ll include a bet on a point spread that’s gotten away from our scope of expectation, but where I don’t have a viable on-field case for a bet.
Packers (+3, -117 at Pinnacle) over Colts
The Packers came into the season with a rating of 57/100, or 57% likely to beat an average team on a neutral field and expected to win 57% of their games (a 10-7 record). Now they’ve been toggling between +3.5 and +2.5 at home against the Colts - a team rated below-average. So what has to happen for that to be case?
The short answer is an injury to Jordan Love. The longer answer? Replacing Love with Malik Willis turns the Packers into a team with a rating in the mid-20s - basically the Carolina Panthers. If the Packers don’t morph into the Panthers with Willis, they’re a valuable bet.
Speaking of Willis, what’s the expectation for him? Nine completions? Maybe 50+ rushing yards?
Or exactly what Anthony Richardson did for the Colts last week.
Teaser of the week:
Ravens -2.5 / Broncos +8.5 (6-point teaser at DraftKings)
Another reason to hold off on betting the Broncos (+2.5) is because the current line available is prime for teasing up through the key numbers of +3, +6, +7 and +8.
Hopefully that’s still an open bet after the Ravens’ game. Baltimore teetered between -9.5 and -10 early in the week but someone out there has bet on the Raiders, pulling the line down into an area ripe for teasing the Ravens down through those same key numbers.
Coming off a loss and with extra rest, the Ravens should be in a good enough “spot” to be trustworthy, and this provides a better method for doing so than laying a decent amount of points.
Total of the week:
Bengals @ Chiefs: Under 48 points
The Chiefs’ red zone woes from last season didn’t seem fixed, as they settled for a pair of field goals on three trips inside the 20. Two long Xavier Worthy touchdowns made up for that (one on a broken coverage), but that shouldn’t be relied upon. In turn, the Chiefs’ defense isn’t likely to give up a long touchdown to a tight end veering through their secondary.
Kansas City’s seen enough of Joe Burrow at his best, that whatever version that was of the Bengals’ offense should be kept in check this week.
One of the missions of the week for Cincinnati defensive guru, Lou Anarumo, should be to focus on his team’s tackling, but even with how shoddy they were in that department, they only gave up 290 yards. The Chiefs’ offense is a million times better than New England’s, but Anarumo’s has had success in preparing for Patrick Mahomes in the past.
I was hit hard by the light so bright, it burned. And all at once I knew she’d understand.