NFL Week 2 betting: The “Player Prop Express”

Betting’s version of a fantasy football team

How’d your fantasy football team do this week?” - Nobody

Guys, wanna hear about my fantasy team?

No, of course you don’t.

What if I gave you a DFS team to play on Sunday?

Well, that would require picking a team to all excel on the same week, avoiding injuries and other things we couldn’t have seen coming.

Plus, there’s the players we think won’t have a big day on Sunday. There’s got to be somewhere for them to “play.”

Instead, we build our own fantasy betting team - “THE WINDOW Express”, with our point-form plays by position.

How did our “fantasy team” do last week?

We won!

6-4 (+1.76 units)

QB1: Matthew Stafford: Under 35.5 pass attempts (-111 at Pinnacle)

• Expecting less aggressive pass-to-run ratio without Puka Nacua

• Cardinals allowed second-most yards per carry last year

  • Rams to lean more on run game with injuries to offensive line

• Cardinals allowed 10 yards per pass attempt vs. Buffalo in Week 1

  • Passing success can come in large chunks

• Rams’ success over Arizona has come with low-attempt passing volume

  • Just once has Stafford gone over 35.5 vs. ARI since 2020

QB2: Bryce Young: Over 185.5 passing yards (-110 at Bet365)

• 182.2 yards per game at home in rookie season, with just 9.1 yards per completion

  • 12.8 yards per completion last week, with just 13 completions on the road

  • Gardner Minshew completed 25/33 (75%) passes vs. Chargers in Week 1

• Lined at 201.5 passing yards last week

• Lined at 195.5+ passing yards in games before December (weather conditions) in 2023

WR1: Deebo Samuel: Under 55.5 receiving yards (+104 at Pinnacle)

• 54 yards on nine targets in Week 1

  • Brandon Aiyuk played only 60% of snaps and was taken out of the game by Sauce Gardner

    • Will likely be more prominently involved

  • With Christian McCaffrey out, Samuel will line up in the backfield more frequently than usual, limiting downfield receiving opportunities

WR2: Calvin Ridley: Under 46.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)

• Struggled to connected with Will Levis in Week 1 (3 receptions on 7 targets)

• DeAndre Hopkins expected to play

  • Possible better connection with Levis from last year

  • Sauce Gardner likely to follow the faster deep threat in Ridley

• 49ers showed you can run on the Jets

WR3: Wan’Dale Robinson: Over 4.5 receptions (+117 at Pinnacle)

• Finished last season 6-1 to the over

  • Played 67% snaps or more in last 7 games

  • Averaged 4.85 receptions per game in last six games

• Last week:

  • Played 68% of snaps

  • Six receptions on 12 targets

• Commanders defense allowed eight receptions on eight targets to Buccaneers’ slot receiver Chris Godwin in Week 1

RB1: Ezekiel Elliott: Under 43.5 rushing yards (-110 at Bet365)

• Just 10 carries in a blowout last week, expecting a closer game this week

• Has averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry in the last two seasons

RB2: Tank Bigsby: Over 30.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel)

• Despite fewer snaps, split carries 50/50 with Travis Etienne in Week 1

  • 29 more yards than Etienne, on 12 carries

  • Didn’t fumble at the 1-yard line like Etienne

  • Etienne’s total is 50.5

• Browns top-rated defense in 2023 allowed 4.2 yards per carry

• Browns allowed 4.2 YPC to Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle last week

  • Just eight carries at 4.2 YPC = 33.6 yards

• Jaguars are favored

  • More likely to win = more likely to run late

TE: Tucker Kraft: Over 17.5 receiving yards (-107 at Pinnacle)

• Played 96% of snaps in Week 1, compared to 25% for Luke Musgrave

  • Note: Musgrave is +375 to score, Kraft is +600

• Check-downs and easy throws for Malik Willis

  • Willis’ three career starts:

    • Nine of 25 (36%) completions to tight ends

    • Tight ends: 39.6 yards per game

FLEX: Justice Hill: Over 12.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)

• Six receptions for 52 yards in Week 1

• Out-snapped Derrick Henry 43-37

• Averaged 7.2 yards per reception in 2023

  • Increased snap count throughout the season

• -180 to catch 2+ passes

SUPER-FLEX: Austin Ekeler: Over 17.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)

• Played 53% of snaps in Week 1 to Brian Robinson’s 51%

  • Caught four passes for 52 yards

  • Only had two carries, showing designation as pass-catching RB

  • Easy target for Jayden Daniels (7-of-17 completions to RBs last week)

BONUS:

RATS (Round-robin Anytime Touchdown Scoring) Parlay:

• Mark Andrews +280

• DeAndre Hopkins +440

• Darius Slayton on +380

• Marvin Harrison Jr. +190

• Courtland Sutton +360

1.1 unit: 10 0.1-unit bet of threes, one 0.1-unit bet of all five.

*Odds derived from FanDuel