NFL Week 3: Best bets for Sunday
Desperate times call for desperate measures for teams looking to save the season already
Call it just “math,” but Week 3 provides 0-2 teams who feel their season’s on the line, 2-0 teams feeling good about themselves, and the rest at 1-1, who are either lucky to have split the first two games, or who deserve better than to be .500.
Four teams still haven’t played a home game, and three go on the road for the first time. How that plays into who to bet, depends on what the betting market’s opinion is of them.
Underdogs bet against the spread via the RUMP:
Giants +6.5
Panthers +5
Rams +7
Falcons +3.5
Jaguars +5Texans @ Vikings (+2.5, 46)
The Vikings are good.
If you want the shortest version of the handicap for this game, that’s it. Even though the betting market is creeping towards that concept, my rating for the Vikings is a step or two ahead.
What makes Minnesota good? Sharp offensive schematics and timely offensive play-calling from Kevin O’Connell. Plus, a defense that’s in their second year of working under Brian Flores, who may be the most versatile defensive play-caller in the NFL.
While the talent on either side of the ball doesn’t jump off the page, and Sam Darnold is a lightning rod for criticism, putting NFL-caliber athletes in a position to succeed, by distracting and confusing the opponent in key situations is the difference between winning and losing.
The Texans are 2-0, which, on the surface, makes it seem like they’re playing up to their market rating coming into the season. Whether it’s strictly by the numbers - missing out on a cover by a point in both games - or by the eye-test, the Texans are overrated as a team crowned to be on the level of the Bills, Cowboys, and Bengals.
On Sunday night at home, we saw that Houston can struggle against decent defense, something a still relatively inexperienced quarterback will face this Sunday. Meanwhile, their own defense will see a different challenge from Kevin O’Connell, after having it relatively easy against the Colts’ and Bears’ green quarterbacks, Anthony Richardson and Caleb Williams.
In betting the NFL, if we can get three or four winning bets out of a team being undervalued, we have to ride it while it’s possible. That may be the case with the Vikings, in another spot where the market’s not giving them enough credit.
Pick: Vikings (+2.5, -114 at Bet365)
Bears @ Colts (-1, 43.5)
Speaking of Richardson and Williams!
Richardson has just a couple more starts under his belt than Williams, and the Bears defense is considerably better, but that’s based on just two games, so this line is probably fair, lingering around pick’em. However, unlike some of the others in the 0-2 cohort, the Colts’ desperation to avoid 0-3 isn’t baked into this line.
Indianapolis seemed surprised by seeing Josh Jacobs run the ball over and over last week, but they won’t have to worry about being lulled into a false sense of security this week, as the Bears’ run game isn’t capable of taking over a game. Chicago’s offensive line is the worst unit on the field, and I don’t want a bad O-line on the road, ever.
The Bears’ defense got away with some barely-missed deep connections last week in Houston, and not-even-close long passes to wide-open Tennessee receivers by Will Levis in Week 1. Richardson’s best skill is the deep-ball, and I trust Shane Steichen to put him in position to find the big plays that the Colts’ offense thrives on. Jonathan Taylor provides the toughest ground threat the Bears have seen all season, as well.
The Bears have won and played the Texans close, but both were smoke-and-mirrors results. The Colts save their season (so far) with a home win against the first below-average opponent they’ve faced.
Pick: Colts moneyline (-109, at Pinnacle)
Dolphins @ Seahawks (-4, 41.5)
The timing has to be right to make the Dolphins’ offense cook. Before Tua Tagovailoa’s scary head injury, the story from Miami was going to be that, through two games, he and the Dolphins’ skill position players have been out of sync, with the exception of one long Tyreek Hill touchdown against the Jaguars.
Tua’s out, sending this line from a projected pick’em up to -4, but is that enough?
We saw the Packers get massively downgraded last week, with the market going from treating Green Bay as a playoff-caliber team to regarding them on the level of the woeful Panthers. Here, the Dolphins are going from a playoff-caliber team to being considered on the level of the Raiders. Not great, but not the worst.
Maybe that’s enough of a downgrade, but with Skylar Thompson getting the start, I don’t know that Miami has the same infrastructure around him to pivot strategy like Green Bay could.
The Dolphins didn’t think enough of Thompson last year to keep him on the active roster, so confidence can’t be high that he’ll step in and have an already-sputtering offense running smoothly in the first road game of the season.
The Seahawks haven’t played their best game, but their run defense can keep Thompson in a tough position. Miami’s defense still hasn’t shown enough to be able to win a game on their own, so if Seattle gets an early lead, things might get ugly.
Pick: Seahawks (-4, -112 at Pinnacle)
Ravens @ Cowboys (+1, 48.5)
Just because you need to win, doesn’t mean you get to win.
That’s a thing to remember at the end of the season, but it’s also the case for Week 3 with the teams that are 0-2.
I haven’t felt comfortable with the makeup of the 2024 Ravens since before the season, and the loss to the Raiders was indicative of a team that doesn’t have the combination of play-calling and personnel to rely on when it’s time to close out a game. Outside of broken plays - often created by Lamar Jackson’s greatness - the Ravens struggle to convert in high-leverage situations. Where are the playmakers on defense?
The Cowboys got blown off the planet by the Saints. While the scoreboard looked ugly, I much prefer a team who lost a game because one bad quarter made them play the rest of the game with one arm tied behind their back, compared to a team that had the game in hand and the options that provides, but lost to inferior competition.
In actuality, avoiding an 0-3 start rested on the Ravens winning at home against Las Vegas, not winning this game, but the betting market has flipped the favorite to Baltimore based on their perceived desperation. The Ravens need to win, but they’re going to Dallas after they themselves were embarrassed. Playing in a more neutral game-state, the Cowboys’ offense is capable of moving the ball on Baltimore, and their defense matches up well with trying to contain Jackson.
Pick: Cowboys moneyline (+100)
Best bet on Substack: Maybe it was the “Believe the Heup” sub-header that got me, or the nice blend of analytics into narrative, easy-to-digest, sports writing, but
’s quick non-betting college football preview of the weekend gets the (eventually) most coveted spot on Substack this week.
By-the-numbers bet:
Where possible, we’ll include a bet on a point spread that’s gotten away from our scope of expectation, but where I don’t have a viable on-field case for a bet.
Eagles (+3, -120 at Pinnacle) over Saints
Last week’s lookahead line projected made the Eagles 3.5-point favorites in this game. Acknowledging that the Saints are much better than preseason perception, they’re getting a huge ratings boost in becoming a field goal favorite against Philadelphia. Meanwhile, one wonders if the Eagles’ rating takes the nosedive that it has (going from the low-60s to the low-50s) - sending them lower than New Orleans in market ratings - if Philadelphia simply sneaks Jalen Hurts on the two straight plays to finish off a win on Monday night. With A.J. Brown out again, and the Saints looking rejuvenated, there’s no definitive on-field handicap, but this is a game that should be lined closer to pick’em, so the value is on the Eagles.
Teaser of the week:
Buccaneers -0.5 / Packers +8.5 (6-point teaser, -120 at DraftKings)
Depending on where you look, the Buccaneers are between -270 and -300 on the moneyline. 6-point teaser legs (-120) are priced at -270 per leg. So, there’s either equal value, or a few percentage point of value, in using Tampa Bay in teasers. What it does though, is allow you to bring the Packers up to +8.5 at -270 - something that’s priced at -340 in alternative spread markets.
The current Packers-Titans line of -2.5 is predicated on Malik Willis starting again, with a Green Bay rating not far from last week’s low-balling. While Jordan Love (a game-time decision) starting would be great, I’m comfortable daring Will Levis to win a game by more than one score, against a good team, even with Willis at the helm.
Total of the week:
Lions @ Cardinals: Under 51.5
You can simplify things by saying that, with scoring down in the NFL, taking the under in the highest total of the week is just good business, but thankfully, there’s more to it than that.
The Cardinals’ offensive numbers are inflated by steamrolling a disinterested and banged-up Rams team last week, and some early production in Buffalo in Week 1. They’ll have a bigger test against the Lions this week. Detroit’s had a top-10 defense by DVOA through two games, and they’ve faced two professional offenses.
Where the Lions have struggled is on offense, as Jared Goff has a QBR of 37.6, with just a long touchdown to Jameson Williams to show for the first two games. The Lions’ running game has been reliable, but Arizona’s defense has defended the rush well so far, and Jonathan Gannon seems to have the Cardinals’ defenders where they need to be.
To get over a total as high as this, you need both teams to convert their red zone opportunities, but Detroit’s just 3-for-11. The Cardinals have succeeded in that area, but the Lions’ improved defense - led by Aidan Hutchinson - may limit opportunities on Sunday, in a way the Rams couldn’t.
I don’t have a clue who covers Sunday in Arizona, but I think 52 points is too much to ask.
I get the news I need on the weather report. Hey, I’ve got nothing to do today but smile.