NFL Week 4: Best bets for Sunday
Where to apply preseason opinion at the end of the season’s first month
In this week’s Tuesday episode of THE WINDOW: Sports betting podcast, I discussed the internal debate we have as bettors about whether to stick to our priors on the 32 teams in the NFL. While it feels like we’ve seen a lot of football, three games wouldn’t be enough to make any blanket statements in other sports and leagues, so why should it here?
In the NFL, we treat every game like it was played over the course of a week, even referring to past games as “the Dolphins’ Week 1 game against the Jaguars,” but it’s still just a handful of possessions often affected greatly by the bounce of an oblong ball.
Market opinion is based on these bounces, and that’s reflected in the point spreads the following week, where, again, we have to decide if enough has happened to legitimize that change in perception.
Underdogs bet against the spread via the RUMP:
*Giants +6
Panthers +4
Broncos +7.5
Jaguars +7
Patriots +10
*Already bet as part of Thursday Night Football previewRams @ Bears (-3, 41)
This line makes sense based on two things:
The Rams’ rating going into last week’s game against the 49ers
L.A. was a home underdog by as much as 7.5 points to a San Francisco team missing a handful of key players
The betting market committing to their priors on the Bears
Week 2 was ugly for the Rams, but Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford showed they can make anything work when necessary.
The bigger issue though, is the credit the Bears continue to get in the market. They managed two of the most undeserved covers of the season in their first two games, which left the door open to back the Colts last week. Indianapolis didn’t exactly put on a show in what should have been a desperation spot. Instead, the Bears - mostly the offense - continued to stumble.
It’s always uncomfortable backing a team after the type of win we refer to as a “jump-and-hug” game, but the market hasn’t adjusted to what Chicago’s baseline is, and we’ll dare them to play their best game of the season. Something needed to cover a 3-point spread.
Pick: Rams (+3)
Saints @ Falcons (-1.5, 42)
The 1.5-point spread amounts to the value of the Falcons’ home-field advantage, which means these teams are being rated equally.
Last week, the Saints were being held in high regard, but we didn’t buy that. Our priors state that the Falcons are the better team, and any reason not to stick with that comes from a rough opening Sunday matchup for Atlanta, compared to a cozy start to the season for the Saints.
Now New Orleans has some adversity to overcome. One of the critical positions that mostly goes unaccounted for in the market is center. A good center calls the protections, getting things organized for the quarterback, so they can throw without pressure. Saints’ center Erik McCoy is expected to be out for half the season, and as we saw against the Eagles, New Orleans’ offense shuts down with internal pressure along the line of scrimmage, as Derek Carr becomes far less efficient when the heat is on.
Atlanta’s got their own offensive line issues, but with the home crowd able to interfere with Carr’s communication and Kirk Cousins already having worked around it well enough last Sunday night, we’ll maintain an opinion that the Falcons are the better squad and that there’s value backing them here.
Pick: Falcons (-1.5, FanDuel)
Commanders @ Cardinals (-3.5, 50.5)
Jayden Daniels is this week’s hot commodity, having thrown a virtual perfect game on Monday in Cincinnati and the betting markets have taken notice. Before the Commanders’ big win, this line was set to be Arizona -5, so we have to determine whether that game from Washington is replicable six days later.
The key offensive plays for Daniels and Terry McLaurin were impressive in their difficulty, but that’s the problem. Difficult doesn’t translate week-to-week.
Unfortunately, what does translate is poor defense. The Bengals went up and down the field as well, racking up 400+ yards at 7.3 yards per play. With a short turnaround for a second road game, it’s unlikely that Washington will have their secondary buttoned up.
It’s not hard to see why bettors are interested in the underdog here, but while Arizona technically couldn’t live up to a big boost in rating last week, they held their own against the Lions - a Super Bowl contender. With the Commanders being bought and the Cards sold, this is a good spot to expect Kyler Murray to have a big game, and Jonathan Gannon’s defense to fair better than the Bengals did against Daniels, given how frequently the Cardinals see a mobile quarterback in practice.
Pick: Cardinals (-3.5)
Bills @ Ravens (-2.5, 46.5)
I think it’s entirely possible that the Bills are better than the Ravens.
With a line nearing a field goal, that should trigger a play on the Bills. However, one of the things we’re tasked with is trying to figure out when a team is going to play to the top or bottom side of their range.
Buffalo came back to beat the Cardinals in Week 1, but getting down big to them wasn’t ideal. The Dolphins have always provided a good matchup for the Bills. Then the Jaguars never really showed up defensively for a primetime game in Buffalo.
Going to Baltimore is an entirely different challenge than what the Bills have faced this season, and even if Buffalo goes onto finish 13-4 our 14-3, a loss at Baltimore wouldn’t retroactively raise an eyebrows.
The Ravens may have saved their season last week, but falling to 1-3 would make their win in Dallas largely meaningless. It’s early in the season, but the Bills’ rating has been on the move, while the Ravens’ has held steady.
In what should be an electric environment, look for the Ravens to be able to slow Josh Allen as much as one can, while Lamar Jackson will do just enough to win a one-possession game. With the line under a field goal, that should be enough to cover as well.
Pick: Ravens (-2.5)
Best bet on Substack: I don’t know how it’s taken this long to shoutout
. You likely have read his stuff on The Ringer and other various mainstream platforms (sound familiar?), but he’s killing it here on Substack. Check out his column on the race for the 12-seed in the College Football Playoff, which is the last bastion of the do-or-die nature of the CFB regular season that we’ve sacrificed with the new format.
By-the-numbers bet:
Where possible, we’ll include a bet on a point spread that’s gotten away from our scope of expectation, but where I don’t have a viable on-field case for a bet.
Colts (+1.5) over Steelers
You can only beat the teams in front of you, but the Steelers have built a 3-0 record against:
Kirk Cousins in his first game back after a long layoff, recovering from an Achilles tear
Bo Nix in his second career start
Justin Herbert on an injured ankle
It’s possible that we add “Anthony Richardson, in general” to that list, but the bigger point is that a 3-0 record has seen Pittsburgh’s rating boosted. Meanwhile, the Colts won last week, and it seems like theirs actually went down.
Like everything in sports betting, the edge is mere percentage points, but I have the Colts 52% to win and the market is pricing them at 48%.
Teaser of the week:
Vikings +8.5 / Chiefs -1 (6-point teaser, -120 at DraftKings)
Ok, one more time. This is the last time (maybe) we bring a touchdown favorite down under a field goal in order to take what we expect to be a close game up to +8.5 at a better price than in the alternative line market.
The Packers’ showed enough without Jordan Love that, had he been healthy, they might have seen a bump up into the 60s in our estimated market rating system. So, their return to the mid-50s might still be short. Meanwhile, the Vikings’ rating continues to improve, but we’re not willing to sell Minnesota yet. Instead, we’ll bet that this is a competitive one-score game.
The Chiefs aren’t always a great bet to cover, and this point spread will settle once Justin Herbert’s determined to be in or out, but if we can’t rely on Kansas City to simply win a game regardless of the point spread, who can we trust? Herbert playing this weekend makes little sense with the injuries to both Chargers’ offensive tackles, so taking K.C. before he’s ruled out and the line gets out of teaser range is the play.
Total of the week:
Eagles @ Buccaneers: Over 43
Both teams have had some struggles scoring lately, but they’re both capable of taking advantage of a compromised defense. The Buccaneers scored 32 on the Eagles in the playoffs last year, and their receivers provide various mismatches for the Philadelphia secondary. There is no Patrick Surtain around to put the clamps on Mike Evans.
There are too many red “Qs” next to names on both depth charts to try to figure out who has the advantage in a coin-flip game, but there’s enough familiarity with how each side defends, that both should know who needs to be blocked and attacked. At least enough to create a 24-20-type of game.
Keeping it true through a dark debut, I’m shedding light on something new. Gotta bend before you move.