NFL Week 4 betting: The “Player Prop Express”

10 player props and 5 RATS to parlay

Is it still fantasy football if there’s nothing to complain about?

Since no one wants to hear about fantasy football woes, we’ll save any whining about how Brock Bowers didn’t get more looks in a trailing game-state, and celebrate a solid bounce-back week for our fake fantasy team, “THE WINDOW Express.”

How did our “fantasy team” do last week?

We crushed. Never in doubt. Could we have broken the league record? Sure, we didn’t, but the boys are cookin’ right now. 

7-3 (+3.7 units)

Each Sunday, we pick out 10 players that are valuable bets to either over-perform or under-perform expectations. It’s way better than hoping everyone has a big game. With an eye on being profitable each week, and considering that a “win,” we assign each play to a fantasy football position, with our reasoning in easily digestible point form.

QB1: Andy Dalton: Longest Pass Completion - Under 34.5 (-104 at Pinnacle)

• Dalton barely went over this number with TD pass to Adam Thielen last week

  • Thielen out this week

• Bengals were beat deep by Terry McLaurin last week

  • Panthers don’t have a “McLaurin” or deep-ball thrower like Jayden Daniels

Jordan Love: Under 246.5 passing yards (-110 at Bet365)

• Packers have been successful running with Josh Jacobs in Love’s absence

• Vikings’ defensive coordinator, Brian Flores has put young quarterbacks in a blender:

  • Daniel Jones: 186 passing yards despite trailing game state

  • Brock Purdy: 8.9 yards per attempt in trailing game state (averaged 9.6 last year)

  • CJ Stroud: 215 yards in trailing game state

• Packers’ favored at home - expecting a close game

RB1: Roschon Johnson: Over 30.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel)

• Reports of Bears moving to Roschon Johnson as their primary running back

  • D’Andre Swift’s (averaging 1.8 yards per carry) rushing-yard total has gone from 42.5 to 34.5 after that news

  • Swift had 10-14 carries in first three games

  • Johnson had eight carries for 30 yards in his season debut last week

  • Johnson went over 30.5 rushing yards in all three career games with 8+ carries

  • Averaging 4.3 yards per carry in young career

RB2: Bijan Robinson: Under 75.5 rushing yards (-110 at Bet365)

• Averaging 16 carries per game, and 4.1 yards per carry (2.9 vs. non-Eagles opponents)

• Saints’ run defense a key focus in practice this week after allowing 147 yards to Saquon Barkley in Week 3, after good run defense in first two weeks

• Robinson (shoulder) on injury report this week

  • May mean more carries for Tyler Allgeier

WR1: Mike Evans: Over 61.5 rec yards (-113 at FanDuel)

• Buccaneers expected to get back starting left tackle Luke Goedeke

  • Buys time for Baker Mayfield to take deep shots vs. Eagles’ secondary

• Evans faced Patrick Surtain last week, and former teammate Carlton Davis in Week 2

• 61 yards in Week 1 blowout vs. Washington

  • Pick’em point spread indicates expectation of a close game, more passing late

• 17 targets in two games versus Eagles last year

  • Averaged 9.2 yards per target (8 targets x 9.2 YPT = 73.8 yards) in 2023

WR2: Garrett Wilson: Under 55.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)

• Wilson should see Patrick Surtain in coverage

  • No. 1 WRs vs. Denver this season:

    • Mike Evans: 2 rec. for 17 yards

    • George Pickens: 2 rec. for 29 yards

    • DK Metcalf: 3 rec. for 29 yards

• Questionable down-field connection between Wilson and Aaron Rodgers

  • Averaging 10 yards per reception (4th on Jets)

• Other options emerging for Rodgers’ trust

  • Mike Williams and Tyler Conklin (10 targets combined in Week 3)

  • Long-time teammate Allen Lazard

  • Breece Hall in passing game

WR3: Demario Douglas: Over 3.5 receptions (+126 at FanDuel)

• 10.5-point spread suggests Patriots will be in trailing game-state, need to throw

• Season-high 83% of the snaps played in Week 3

  • Seven receptions on nine targets for 69 yards on just 48 total plays

    • Add a rushing attempt, and 20.8% of all offensive plays went to Douglas vs. NYJ - coached by former 49ers DC

TE: Pat Freiermuth: Over 3.5 receptions (+140 at Bet365)

• Caught exactly four passes in all three games this season

• Colts have allowed 5.7 receptions per game to the tight end (5th most in NFL)

FLEX: Tre Tucker: Over 3.5 receptions (-108 at FanDuel)

• Known as a designated “deep-shot specialist” Tucker finished last season with 60+% snap share, and had career-high 52 snaps last week

  • Seven receptions on nine targets for 96 yards versus Panthers

• Davante Adams out this week versus Browns

  • Adams’ nine targets per game have to go elsewhere

• Wan’Dale Robinson - a similar player to Tucker - caught seven passes last week against the Browns

SFLEX: Jayden Daniels: Over 19.5 pass completions (+102 at Pinnacle)

• Daniels looked shy to throw in Week 1 rookie debut

• Since then, 20+ completions in Week 2 and 3

• Completing passes at high percentage: 80.3%

• Commanders’ defense may be in trouble versus Cardinals = potential trailing game-state for Daniels

• Plan may be for more throws due to:

  • Cardinals used to defending QB runs in practice

  • Austin Ekeler out with concussion

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BONUS:

RATS (Round-robin Anytime Touchdown Scoring) Parlay:

• Mike Williams (+290)

• Jayden Reed (+170)

• Mike Evans (+130)

• Roschon Johnson (+210)

• Travis Kelce (+185)

1.1 unit: 10 0.1-unit bet of threes, one 0.1-unit bet of all five.

*Odds derived from FanDuel

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