NFL Week 4 Market Report
Measuring the ups and downs of team perception to find value
Week 4 in the NFL was our third profitable weekend of this season. A 7-5 record against the spread is a standard result, but we found money in a variety of places (player props - including the podcast’s “Hook & Ladder” bet, a second straight total winner and the first teaser win of the season!).
One element that keeps coming through is our “By-the-numbers” play among the “Best bets” for Sunday. The premise is that you can sniff out a valuable bet just based on how the market is treating the two teams, off of short-term results. Of course, you need to know how the betting market is treating every team in the league, before you can decide whether they’re being overrated or underrated. This is what our Tuesday check-in is designed to do.
For a breakdown of Week 4 and all the betting takeaways, check out the Tuesday episode of THE WINDOW: Sports betting podcastEstimated market ratings
Before the season, we explained the process of how the betting market takes the first odds offered from sportsbooks about a team’s quality - regular season win (RSW) totals - and translates that into a team rating.
Each game provides a subsequent data point that we receive from oddsmakers and bettors alike - the closing line (the last available point spread to bet before kickoff).
Taking the most recent game’s closing line into account, we adjust every team’s market rating to reflect where they were relative to the rest of the league before the previous week’s games.
It’s the end of the month, so I’ve included a couple extra columns:
* The conversion of a team rating into how many points their worth relative to a maximum point spread (27)
* Their projected winning percentage from before the seasonThese are not power rankings - a largely pointless exercise done for clicks - that simply list each team in a made-up order for readers to argue about.
They are ratings, which allow for the possibility that teams can be perceived to be equal - or have a large gap - amongst the other 31 teams in the NFL. To better understand the chart above, refer back to Week 1’s market rating column. You can argue about them, OR you can just bet against them.
The Chiefs - the NFL’s rating constant - couldn’t cover an inflated number, but it wasn’t that way because of Kansas City getting too much credit. It was because of the assumption that the Chargers would be without Justin Herbert, which caused the line to re-open at -8.5 early in the week. Herbert ended up playing, but with key pieces banged up or suspended for L.A., oddsmakers weren’t willing to drop the line below -7. It was smart on their part, as the game landed right on a game-winning converted-touchdown.
The 49ers got healthier leading up to Sunday’s game with the Patriots, but their rating hasn’t gotten back to the 70/100 level they were at earlier this year.
The Ravens’ win legitimized their status as a favorite over the Bills, in the face of many who thought Buffalo might deserve to be.
The Lions were shorter favorites than they should have been against the Seahawks on Monday night. That’s either due to a drop in Detroit’s rating from Week 2’s loss to the Buccaneers, or a big upgrade to the Seahawks that they might not be ready for, especially with a significantly wounded defense.
The Texans move to 0-4 against the spread, with their third non-cover by less than two points this season. It’s a sign of a team that’s just not quite playing up to what the market expects. The key to not covering this week wasn’t their play though, it was the Jaguars’ first three games that caused a rating drop that was subsequently reflected in a point spread that was a couple points too high.
The Jets’ got a bump from blowing out the Patriots in Week 3, and the Broncos didn’t get much credit for their win in Tampa Bay. That’s excusable in making New York -7 or -7.5, but the interesting betting the Jets at that number, pushing the closing line to as high as -8.5 was baffling.
Based on their performance without Lane Johnson, DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown, missing those key players should be enough to expect the Eagles to perform at the very low end of their range.
The reason for this week’s by-the-numbers bet - Colts over Steelers - is evident on the chart above. Pittsburgh is at the top of their range, while the Colts were priced at the bottom of theirs. That’s a classic buy-low, sell-high scenario.
This week’s exception to the rule - the Los Angeles Rams, who lost and didn’t cover despite out-gaining the Bears 322–264. You might want to blame the situation of a road game after a big home win, but the Rams played well enough to stay within three points.
Where is the Commanders’ rating heading? Like the Vikings, Washington might be a team that was expected to be below average, but is actually better than a .500 team. Six days after playing on the level of a contender by beating the Bengals, they showed they are notably better than the Cardinals.
We thought the Dolphins might be able to outplay a drop in their rating with “Snoop” Huntley, and so did the market, closing Monday’s point spread at -3 over the Titans. Miami couldn’t, looking like a team that might be the worst in the league without Tua Tagovailoa.
Somewhat surprising late-week injuries to Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby put the Raiders’ rating on the low side of their range. If you wanted anything to do with betting Browns-Raiders, that should have triggered interest in the home underdog.
The Panthers and Patriots were each competitively close to the point spread but couldn’t find the backdoor to cover, something we usually see out of the teams rated at the bottom of the league, because of how many points they’re getting each week. This may create some value in holding your nose to back the bad teams in Week 5.
Week 4 betting results
