NFL Week 5: Best bets for Sunday
What’s worth it amongst the first skinny slate of the season
Thursday Night Football saw the Falcons’ formally apologize to their bettors for not getting the best of the number. Like Sunday, Atlanta saw a line that was -1.5 move to -2.5, but unlike last week the Falcons pulled off a comeback that made everyone happy. Sometimes getting every ounce of value from a bet matters, sometimes it doesn’t, but you always want to have your I’s dotted and T’s crossed in betting the NFL, getting the best number possible.
Five straight Thursday side winners to start the season is one things, bet Week 4 being profitable because both the teaser and total came through?! What planet is this?!
We’ll still need those elements to further pick up the pace to get profitable, but overall (TNF, RUMP, BB, MNF), we’re 31-20 for 60.7% against the spread this season.
Underdogs bet against the spread via the RUMP:
Panthers +4
Bengals +3 (-120)
Colts +3 (-115)
Giants +6.5
*Saints +6 (-115)
*Will be tracked as part of MNF PreviewBills @ Texans (-1, 47)
How do you feel as a game is happening?
It’s a good litmus test for how you truly feel about a team.
As they drew within 11, I was terrified of the Bills coming back on the Ravens last Sunday night. Part of that was the Ravens’ recent propensity for letting teams back in games, but much of it is a respect for the way Josh Allen’s playing football.
I likely don’t have to sell you on the Bills’ offense, but the diversification of their attack has made them tougher to defend. The Texans’ defense has the sixth-best DVOA in the NFL, but those are numbers built against Anthony Richardson, Caleb Williams, and the lost soul of Trevor Lawrence. When Houston faced an offense with a plan and an executioner of those concepts, they got down 21-0 in the first 20 minutes in Minnesota, and the Vikings weren’t compelled to push the limits offensively. Houston will get unrelenting pressure from Allen coming off a loss.
More importantly, the Bills lost last week because of a physical mismatch for their defense, having to deal with the size of the Ravens in the run game. Buffalo’s defense is built to rush the passer and cover speed, not tackle size in the open field. Christian Benford - one of the top corners in the league - is more useful against a team whose offense runs through a top receiver. For example, Lamar Jackson only threw it 18 times and their nominal No. 1, Zay Flowers, caught one pass for 10 yards. Hardly a problem for the Ravens.
Cut to the Texans’ offense. Ranked 20th in offensive DVOA, Houston’s built for speed but they haven’t been efficient since Joe Mixon ran through the Colts in Week 1. Being unable to pull away from the Bears, Mixon getting hurt, a blowout at the hands of the Vikings, and nearly losing to the Jags at home, are not positive signs with an ornery Bills team coming to town, and a more appropriate matchup for what the Bills are built to do defensively.
Pick: Bills (+1)
Packers @ Rams (-3, 48.5)
The Rams comeback win over the short-handed 49ers was admirable.
However, getting down because of three scores from Jajuan Jennings, in-between getting dummied by the Cardinals and letting a game in Chicago get away last week is more indicative of what we should expect from the Rams regularly.
The Los Angeles defense is going to be challenged to keep track of everything that’s going on within Matt Lafleur’s offense. Just when you think you have one hole plugged, all of a sudden, Dontayvion Wicks has two touchdowns.
You’ll be hard-pressed to find a 2-2 team with more impressive losses than Green Bay who went blow-for-blow with the full-strength Eagles in Brazil, and nearly came back from down four touchdowns last week.
With a game under his belt post-knee injury, Jordan Love should pick up where he left off in the final three quarters last week. As usual at SoFi Stadium, the team with the bigger national following should be the one with the advantage, so while the early money came in on the Rams to pull the line down from +3.5 to +3, we’ll give the Rams the points expecting the best effort of the season from a Packers team who hasn’t had any problem going on the road since the middle of last season.
Pick: Packers (-3)
Cowboys @ Steelers (-2.5, 44)
I’ve had this game circled for a while, but the market’s sussed it out as well.
Undaunted, instead of getting a point or two, or a plus-priced moneyline, we’ll lay 2.5 with the Steelers.
The line’s this high because the two most important players on the Cowboys’ defense appear out this week as Demarcus Lawrence is on IR and Micah Parsons is doubtful. Since any game with this edition of the Steelers is more about run defense than rushing the passer, Parsons should probably take the week off anyway. The Cowboys’ defensive numbers are helped by the Giants’ failure to get literally anything going on the ground on a short week, but the Steelers will be more committed to it.
Coming off a loss, the Steelers’ defense have to be annoyed that their preparation for Anthony Richardson went to waste when his polar opposite, Joe Flacco, was thrust into action last week. On top of a complete switch from what they planned for, who’s faced the Steelers’ defense more than Flacco in the last 15 years?
For years, Mike Tomlin’s teams have exhibited a pattern of doing more with less, but then having a semi-inexplicable performance, before then rallying off a loss.
Lather, get rinsed, repeat.
A Sunday-nighter at home against a team with a wounded defense is perfect. Especially since T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward can salivate all week about taking on Dallas’s rookie left tackle, while the back-end keeps multiple eyes on CeeDee Lamb, knowing there’s little else the Cowboys’ have to beat them.
Pick: Steelers (-2.5)
Best bet on Substack: Incredibly, hockey season starts next week, and while I haven’t firmed up what I’m going to do with NHL betting at THE WINDOW (at least until the CFB and NFL season are done), I want to shoutout my guy
. As many of you know, Todd and I worked together on NHL betting content at theScore. Even before that, he’s long been doing his thing covering every inch of the New Jersey Devils on this platform with . Sure, maybe you’re not a Devils fan, but let’s use this space as a reminder that there’s probably a similar place on Substack to read about your hockey team. Though, it’s hard to imagine it will be covered better.By-the-numbers bet (4-0):
Where possible, we’ll include a bet on a point spread that’s gotten away from our scope of expectation, but where I don’t have a viable on-field case for a bet.
Browns (+3.5, -118 at DraftKings) over Commanders
Jayden Daniels and the Commanders are the hot commodity right now. The market is screaming “Buy! Buy! Buy!” like it’s the floor of the NYSE in 1982.
Two weeks ago, the Commanders opened -2.5 to the Giants… and there was interest in New York!
Which might have proven correct if they hadn’t lost their kicker on the first play of the game.
I don’t want to bet on the Browns - banged-up offensive line, underwhelming defense, minimal run game, creepy quarterback - and neither do you. Especially when you can bet on the Commanders - star rookie QB, defensive line that should overwhelm the Browns.
However, Washington’s blown through their previously perceived ceiling, and the Browns have bottomed-out after a loss to the Raiders.
Like the previous four times we’ve won in this space, the bet to make is the uncomfortable one.
Teaser of the week (1-3):
Raiders +8.5 / 49ers -1 (6-point teaser, -120 at DraftKings)
How healthy are the 49ers?
That’s the main question each week.
Looking ahead to this game, the answer should be “enough.” The 49ers should be healthy enough to beat the Cardinals. While I respect Kyler Murray’s ability to keep the Cardinals close enough to keep the backdoor open on a +7.5 bet, there are enough sportsbooks offering San Francisco -7, allowing for a 6-point teaser leg down to -1. Since teaser legs are priced -270 and the moneyline is -360, we’ll take the value in asking the 49ers to just win.
To do that, we need another leg for our 6-pointer, and since we’re 4-0 in teasing teams up from +2.5 to +8.5, we’re happy to have our pick of the litter. Six of the dozen games on Sunday are lined under a field goal. The team I want to dare to win by two scores though, is the Broncos.
Denver has four touchdowns this season. With a garbage-timer in the opener in Seattle, none against the Steelers, and a 9-yard drive in Tampa, just two have come within the run of standard play.
Oh, by the way, the Broncos haven’t beaten the Raiders since they moved to Las Vegas. Yeah, it’s true. 0-8.
I think Denver wins this game. After all, they’re wearing these absolute bangers this weekend:
But I’ll bet against it being convincing, since it should require a season-best offensive performance.
Total of the week (2-2):
Jets vs. Vikings (Over 40, -112 at Pinnacle)
For the record, the Jets (+2.5) could just as easily be included in the by-the-numbers bet section, since the market’s gotten to a point where, for the first time all year, they’re admitting that the Vikings are better on a literal neutral field in England. Every other time that a similar revelation has occurred, the underdog won. However, I’m going to need +3 on the Jets to pull the trigger.
Instead, if the on-field handicap is that the Vikings’ defense won’t rattle Aaron Rodgers pre-snap in the same way that it has the quartet of less-experienced/young quarterbacks it’s faced this season (Daniel Jones, Brock Purdy, CJ Stroud, Jordan Love for a half), then the Jets should be able to score more than those teams have. If that’s the case, then the Vikings should be compelled to push the ball down the field for a full 60 minutes, instead of winding things down late. With a low total for two capable offenses, it won’t take much to go over.
Until a quarter to ten, I saw the strain creep in. He seems distracted and I know just what is gonna happen next. Before his first step, he is off again.