NFL Week 5 betting: The “Player Prop Express”

10 player props and 5 RATS to parlay

Would it have killed Travis Kelce to score a touchdown?!

We caught three of our five RATS for a little extra cash last Sunday, but Kelce getting his first touchdown of the season - against a team he’s owned in his career - would have connected three more legs of our round-robin anytime touchdown scorer parlay.

It was less annoying than being lied-to about the tailback situation in Chicago, but lesson learned about alleged “insiders” and what their knowledge is worth.

How did our “fantasy team” do last week? 

It was close, but we came back to win. 

6-4 (+2.2 units)

The team’s 3-1 on the season, we’re on the waiver wire, we’re asking around about trades, but we’re not doing anything dumb.

Each Sunday, we pick out 10 players that are valuable bets to either over-perform or under-perform expectations. It’s way better than hoping everyone has a big game. With an eye on being profitable each week, and considering that a “win,” we assign each play to a fantasy football position, with our reasoning in easily-digestible point form.

QB1: Dak Prescott - Long pass completion: Under 34.5 (-105 at Pinnacle)

• Steelers have allowed just one reception of over 30 yards all season

  • Cornerbacks Joey Porter Jr and Donte Jackson

• Mismatch between Steelers’ pass-rushers and the Cowboys’ offensive line unlikely to provide time for Dak Prescott to go deep

• Brandin Cooks is out - Pittsburgh defense can focus on CeeDee Lamb, Dallas’s biggest deep threat

QB2: Kyler Murray - Over 20.5 pass completions (-114 at FanDuel)

• Game-script play - expecting the Cardinals to trail based on how poor their defense has played (5th-worst in yards per play allowed)

  • Murray hasn’t completed more than 21 passes all season, so total seems inflated, but suggests expectation of more throwing than usual

• Completed 22+ passes in five straight games versus 49ers

RB1: Kyren Williams - Under 82.5 rushing yards (-110 at Bet365)

• Lined between 58.5 and 77.5, this is the highest total of the season for Williams

  • Possibly due to back-to-back games of 89 and 94 rushing yards

• Packers’ run defense much better against teams without significant QB running threat

  • 30 carries for 114 yards by Titans and Vikings

  • 36 carries for 212 by Eagles (Jalen Hurts) and Colts (Anthony Richardson)

• Third game after Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua injuries, Stafford more confident in receiving corps

• May need to throw more if Packers’ build early lead

RB2: D’Andre Swift - Over 14.5 receiving yards (-106 at FanDuel)

• Bears may have made adjustment to make up for porous offensive line and Swift’s struggles rushing in first three games

  • More short, quick passes, screens

  • Seven targets last week

• 20+ receiving yards in each of last three games

WR1: Justin Jefferson - Under 25.5 longest reception (-105 at Pinnacle)

• Toughest corner matchup for Jefferson this season, facing Sauce Gardner

• Jets have allowed just one reception of longer than 25 yards to a receiver all season

  • Double-coverage, somewhat-lucky, catch by Calvin Ridley

WR2: Christian Kirk - Over 49.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)

• After slow start (2 catches on 7 targets in two games), Kirk’s been targeted 22 times and made 15 catches

• Slot corner Kenny Moore out for the Colts

  • Kirk primarily works out of the slot

WR3: Andre Iosivas - Over 2.5 receptions (-105 at Pinnacle)

• Iosivas’ snap-share has not decreased with return of Tee Higgins

• Just one reception on one target last week, keeps reception total down

• Ravens try to limit Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase, last year:

  • No. 3 receiver Tyler Boyd had 6 receptions on 8 targets in first game

  • Boyd and Trenton Irwin had 11 total targets in second matchup

  • Boyd had 3+ receptions in every non-Week 18 matchup since 2020

  • Iosivas replacing Boyd in Bengals’ offense this year

TE: Brock Bowers: Over 45.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)

• Raiders’ target leaders:

  • Davante Adams: 27 (“injured”)

  • Jakobi Meyers: 27 (Patrick Surtain)

  • Brock Bowers: 27

• Bowers leads Raiders in receptions and yardage

• Broncos have allowed seventh-most receptions to opposing tight ends

  • Bowers is best tight end Denver’s faced

    • (Noah Fant, Pat Freiermuth, Cade Otton, Tyler Conklin)

• Raiders are underdogs, expected to have throw-heavy game script

FLEX: Curtis Samuel - Over 36.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)

• Mack Hollins and Marques Valdez-Scantling’s role in the Bills’ offense = run deep

• Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel’s role = cause trouble underneath and in the flat

  • Shakir is out, so Samuel’s snap count should rise from <40% to at least 60%

• Bills have given Samuel a carry in the last two games

  • Samuel’s averaged 5.9 yards per carry in his career

  • Receiving yardage lined at 31.5

SUPER-FLEX: Jayden Daniels - Under 50.5 rushing yards (+112 at Pinnacle)

• Daniels has less than 50 rushing yards in each game since NFL debut

• Browns’ defense is best Commanders have faced since Week 1, and the Browns’ offense is not explosive but methodical

  • How they compare:

    • Cardinals: T-26 in yards per play allowed, T-24 in offensive plays per game

    • Bengals: T-13 in YPP allowed, T-26 in offensive plays per game

    • Browns: T-7 in YPP allowed, 9th in offensive plays per game

• Browns can slow Commanders’ offense and limit Daniels’ offensive possessions

• Daniels’ confidence and accuracy in passing makes running less necessary

• Browns have experience and success in defending Lamar Jackson twice per season

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BONUS:

RATS (Round-robin Anytime Touchdown Scoring) Parlay:

• DJ Moore (+185)

• Tee Higgins (+190)

• Dalton Kincaid (+230)

• Amari Cooper (+175)

• Tyreek Hill (+190)

1.1 unit: 10 0.1-unit bet of threes, one 0.1-unit bet of all five.

*Odds derived from FanDuel

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