NFL Week 6: Best bets for Sunday
Super Bowl contenders take care of business at home
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
One last commiseration from a week where we might have deserved better, as the Bills had a win delivered to them on a silver platter and refused to dine, while the Steelers’ vaunted* defense caved deep into the night. Such is life in the NFL where seemingly every game comes down to one play, and you just hope you’re on the winning side of it.
A 3-5 week against the spread drops us below 60%, which we can live with, only as long as we go 60% ATS for every five weeks and then have a toe-stub sixth week.
*No one’s ever used the term “vaunted” without having it lined without at least a tinge of sarcasm. It’s the first word to learn in the “sarcastic jackass” handbook.
Underdogs bet against the spread via the RUMP:
Patriots +7
Panthers +6
Cowboys +3
Broncos +3 (-120)
Giants +3.5Cardinals @ Packers (-5, 47.5)
No one has a wider range of outcomes on a given week than the Cardinals. We’re five games in, and they’ve won a game 41-10 and lost one 42-14. Last week alone, they won as a 7-point underdog, but at halftime, down 13, you wondered if they might lose by four touchdowns again.
Which side of it are we going to see this Sunday? Well, the opponent has some say in it, don’t they?
Pounding the Rams in Week 2 was likely more about L.A.’s inability to get up for a game after losing so many key players in the season-opener in Detroit. Getting pounded by the Commanders might be more about Washington’s offensive unlock. Coming back on the 49ers might have been more about San Francisco current struggles to play a clean game.
The Packers will have their say on what version of Arizona we see, because the Packers dictate the play when they’re at their best. Embarrassed from getting kicked in the teeth early in their last home game against Minnesota, but capable of a comeback, I expect Green Bay to play at the high-end of their range. What their peak looks like hasn’t been determined. We know the low-end is still pretty high from seeing them win without Jordan Love, and the high-end might in the upper echelon of the league.
While the point spread is fair based on a preseason rating of the Packers as a wild-card level team, but what if we think they’re better than that? Impressed by Green Bay’s 4th-ranked offensive DVOA despite Love’s absence for two games, we’ll test that theory against the Cards’ 26th-ranked defensive DVOA, and lay under a touchdown.
Pick: Packers (-5)
Commanders @ Ravens (-6.5, 51.5)
How far are we willing to go with the Commanders’ rating?
The Ravens’ have upheld the cliche of playing with desperation in wins at Dallas, blowing out Buffalo, and coming back in a sneaky-key game at Cincinnati. As a result, their league-best rating is at the very least fair.
That’s important because it acts as the constant when we reverse engineer how the market got to a 6.5-point spread at home against Washington. The Commanders are the variable, undaunted by a rating increased, covering point spreads anyway (like a junior version of the Vikings).
The Commanders are up to 56/100 in our market rating tracking system, which is the level of a wild card team. With wins over the Bengals, Cardinals, and Browns, that might be warranted, but a road game with the Ravens is a major step up in weight class.
Baltimore occasionally is capable of a stinker, and I’d be concerned about a let down, except for the Commanders’ proximity to Baltimore. With Jayden Daniels all the rage in the DMV (and nationally), the Ravens have heard all about the next big thing down the road.
If you were looking for a team capable of defending an uber-dual-threat quarterback, it’s probably one that sees the apex predator of mobile QBs in practice every day.
It’s a lot of points, but this game sets up similarly to when another hot rookie quarterback, CJ Stroud, came into Baltimore in last year’s playoffs at the high-point of their market rating, only to be shut down.
Pick: Ravens (-6.5)
Steelers @ Raiders (+3, 36.5)
Shockingly, things are not going well in Las Vegas.
Davante Adams seems done with the Raiders, which is a bad sign for the locker room spirit Antonio Pierce was supposed to be coaxing out of his players. He wasn’t hired for his playbook acumen, after all. However, Adams isn’t the Raiders’ most important player, especially in this matchup.
Christian Wilkins, their big-money acquisition at defensive tackle is out for the season, which leaves a gaping hole in the middle of a defense that was already 29th in defensive DVOA, allowing 4.9 yards per rush.
The Steelers’ offense can be a frustrating watch, but if the Panthers can go to Vegas and walk the Raiders up and down the field, Pittsburgh - coming off two losses and with a Terrible Towel-laden crowd - can as well.
With a win here, and the New York teams in for back-to-back primetime games before their Week 9 bye, the Steelers can get back into the AFC North divisional race if Mike Tomlin has their attention for this road trip.
Aidan O’Connell seems like a sitting duck for T.J. Watt and company, as we know what to expect from a player who, if he was the better option, would have been the Raiders’ starter from Week 1. O’Connell’s getting the start to provide a different look, but I expect more of the same from an underwhelming offense.
Pick: Steelers (-3)
Best bet on Substack: I’m not a writer by trade, I’m a bettor, but I’ve read a few words in my day, and just try to express what we do here in a way that mimics how a good writer would do it. An actual writer, , does a nice job on “”, breaking down the week that was in the NFL with a lead story off the top. This past week he digs into the Jets’ current over-commitment to a certain aged quarterback. Then he really catches my vibe by touching on Sean McDermott and Zac Taylor virtually clunking their heads together like two of three modern-day Stooges.
By-the-number bet (4-1):
Where possible, we’ll include a bet on a point spread that’s gotten away from our scope of expectation, but where I don’t have a viable on-field case for a bet.
Cowboys (+3) over Lions
For a more detailed breakdown, check out our five favorite underdogs in the weekly round-robin underdog moneyline parlay (RUMP).
The Cowboys were able to get it done offensively with 445 yards against the Steelers’ defense, and there’s no better way to prepare for Aidan Hutchinson than seeing T.J. Watt the week before.
Teaser of the week (1-4):
Jaguars +7.5/Jets +8.5 (6-point teaser, -120 at DraftKings)
I’m out.
No more teasing a favorite down through key numbers.
Losing both legs of the teaser last week was strangely comforting, but I’m more interested in taking tightly-lined games up over a touchdown anyway.
Unless… the market moves the Eagles down to -8.5 at some point this weekend, at which point I would take them down to -2.5 and pair them with the Jaguars (+7.5).
We’ll start Sunday slowly, moving the Jaguars up over a touchdown in a game that should be close. Jacksonville, experienced in travelling to London - their de facto second home, have already gotten attention from bettors taking the +2.5, not waiting to see if Bears’ money might move the line up to a field goal. We won’t be tricked into thinking Chicago is a juggernaut all of a sudden because they beat the Panthers’ handily. Instead, we will buy into the idea that Doug Pederson has his group prepared for the first of two winnable games overseas.
If we don’t get a tease-able line for the Eagles, we’ll move the Jets up through key numbers, expecting a maximum effort from Aaron Rodgers and company on Monday night. We’ll (continue to) punch some holes in what the Bills are up to lately when we breakdown the Week 6 finale, but Buffalo winning by two scores in a third-straight road game is a task worth betting against.
Total of the week (2-2-1):
Colts/Titans: Under 43
The betting market doesn’t like the combination of Anthony Richardson returning to take back the starting role from Joe Flacco and a handful of injuries to Colts’ skill-position players like Michael Pittman (and potentially another week without Jonathan Taylor), moving the Colts from a short favorite to 2.5-point underdog. However, the total hasn’t moved despite the high-probability that the Colts’ offense will be less explosive. Especially compared to last week against the Jaguars’ porous defense.
Meanwhile, in a somewhat mirrored situation, the Titans also are compelled to go back to their own second-year struggling quarterback. If Tennessee can get a cleaner game from Will Levis, with a more conservative attitude, this game might be played with a near-running clock when each team has the ball. That would setup for a lower-scoring game than the market suggests.
In every movie I watch from the '50s, there's only one thought that swirls, around my head now. And that's that everyone there on the screen, Yeah, everyone there on the screen.
Well, they're all dead now. They're all dead now.