NFL Week 6 betting: The “Player Prop Express”

10 player props and 5 RATS to parlay

Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.

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Going against star players did not go well last week. In general, offenses seem to be catching up to defense - that often have the advantage early in the season. It’s easier to dictate and disrupt the opponent than find rhythm immediately.

Does that mean we should automatically pile into every over, with offenses hitting their stride? No, like any week, we have to pick our spots to put together the best team to cheer for (or against).

How did our “fantasy team” do last week? 

Not great, Bob!

3-7 (-4.47 units)

Blame it on the bye week. Our team was short-handed, we were low on options. I think some guys were hurt. 

Good news, last time we went 3-7, a 7-3 week followed.

Each Sunday, we pick out 10 players that are valuable bets to either over-perform or under-perform expectations. It’s way better than hoping everyone has a big game. With an eye on being profitable each week, and considering that a “win,” we assign each play to a fantasy football position, with our reasoning in easily-digestible point form.

QB1: Deshaun Watson - Under 33.5 pass attempts (-114 at FanDuel)

• Eagles’ full complement of healthy key offensive players keeps Browns off the field

• Watson’s passing attempts have gradually dropped over the first five games

• Need to have the ball to throw passes, inefficient Browns’ offense won’t run enough plays

• Possibility Watson gets benched

QB2: Justin Herbert - Over 180.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel)

• Herbert, offensive line, healthier coming out of their bye week

• Broncos’ defense has been very good, but that’s depressed this total in what should be a close game

  • Denver top-10 in opponent rush yards per carry should force Chargers to throw more

• Herbert didn’t need to throw versus Las Vegas and Carolina, injured versus Pittsburgh, conservative offense trying to hold lead vs. Kansas City

• Lowest-lined yardage total of Herbert’s career

RB1: Bijan Robinson - Under 98.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 at Bet365)

• Robinson’s snaps down from 80% in the first three game to 65% in the last two

  • Hasn’t gone over this total in three games

• Panthers’ run defense has allowed 3.8 yards per carry in last three games, and 10th in opponents’ receptions by a running back

• Falcons’ offensive line injuries has hurt their run game, but Kirk Cousins has gotten more comfortable in throw-heavy game situations

RB2: Najee Harris - Over 58.5 rushing yards (-110 at Bet365)

• Christian Wilkins out for Raiders, leaving a hole in the middle of their defense

• Steelers’ favored = potential for run-heavy approach late in game

• Harris was minimized in trailing game state vs. Colts, and Steelers’ offense was held off the field against Dallas (75 offensive plays for Cowboys)

• Harris went over in previous three games, all wins, with 17+ carries

  • Favored (-125) to have 16 or more carries

WR1: Rashod Bateman - Over 2.5 receptions (+100 at DraftKings)

• 3+ receptions in three of five games this season

  • One of two “under” games came against the Bills in Ravens’ blowout where Ravens used size in the run game to overwhelm Buffalo

• Season-high eight targets last week vs. Bengals

  • Second on the team in receiving targets

• Similar matchup where scoring from both teams will be expected

• Commanders more vulnerable in secondary than on the defensive line

WR2: Christian Kirk - Over 45.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)

Like a real fantasy football team, there’s no reason to trade a player who’s performed well for us.

• 79, 61, and 88 yards in his last three games after a slow start for Jags’ offense

• 84 and 78 yards in London games last year

• Bears’ numbers good against opposing receivers, depresses yardage total, but Chicago’s missing two starters in the secondary

  • Jaquan Brisker and Tyrique Stevenson

WR3: DeMario Douglas - Over 3.5 receptions (+110 at Bet365)

• Two catches on three targets in Drake Maye’s only drive, late versus Jets

• Douglas is a quick receiver for underneath throws for rookie quarterback

• Maye is a better scrambler than Jacoby Brissett, extending plays

TE: Juwan Johnson - Over 2.5 receptions (-109 at Pinnacle)

• Inexperienced quarterbacks, like Spencer Rattler, rely on easy throws to tight end

• Probable trailing game state, since Saints are underdogs

• Five targets on Monday versus Chiefs, with highest snap count of the season

• Taysom Hill out again this week

FLEX: Jameson Williams - Over 20.5 longest reception (-115 at DraftKings)

• Caught a long pass in six of last eight games going back to last year

• Detroit’s biggest deep threat open when Lions create time for Jared Goff

  • Cowboys missing top pass rushers Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence

• Last week was first game the Cowboys didn’t allow reception longer than 21 yards

SUPER-FLEX: Romeo Doubs - Over 42.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)

• “Squeaky wheel gets the grease” theory

  • Doubs complained about role in offense, returns after being suspended one game for missing practice

• Doubs had four receptions in two of first four games, and in 10 of 18 last year

  • Averaging three more yards per reception than last year

• Look for Jordan Love to look for Doubs deep down the field multiple times versus thin Cardinals’ secondary

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BONUS:

RATS (Round-robin Anytime Touchdown Scoring) Parlay:

• Rashod Bateman (+300)

• Dallas Goedert (+350)

• DeAndre Hopkins (+230)

• George Pickens (+270)

• Jake Ferguson (+200)

1.1 unit: 10 0.1-unit bet of threes, one 0.1-unit bet of all five.

*Odds derived from FanDuel

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