NFL Week 7: Best bets for Sunday
Who to back in the Super Bowl rematch, and much more
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
It’s time to have the teaser conversation.
Each week we play teasers by the book. In the mythical teaser tome, you might find a chapter about “Stanford Wong.” It’s a short chapter, since all it tells you is that the most viable teasers are 2-team/6-point teasers (priced at -120 or -275 per leg), that cross the most common winning margins. As any football fan knows, teams tend to win most frequently by a field goal (3) or touchdown (7).
Moving a point spread across those two numbers are the only times when it’s worth being charged the -275 odds.
As an aside, you should never tease through 0. Teams almost never tie, and 1 or 2 aren’t common-enough winning margins to make it worth going from -110 to -275.
For example, teams lined at +2.5 can be bought up in the alternative spread markets to +8.5, but those odds can be as high as -390, and an 8.5-point favorite can be bought at -2.5, but for a similar price. Combining two results “unlocks” a different price for those alternative point spreads.
Also, if you’re teasing a game up, you want to do it with games with a low total, since points are expected to be more valuable. In teasing down, you want game with a higher total, since they’re less valuable.
This season, teasing teams down - while mathematically viable - has been a disaster with how many underdogs of around a touchdown have won outright.
Last week, we opted to tease the Jaguars up to +7.5 when they were +1.5. By the time the game kicked off in London on Sunday morning, Jacksonville were 1.5-point favorites. In the end, we got a virtual 9-point teaser leg for the price of a 6-pointer.
None of it mattered when the Bears beat the Jaguars handily.
You can play it mathematically correct all you want, but the teams have to perform as well. Hopefully, the more we know about these teams, the tighter the results will be to the point spread, making teaser legs more likely to win.
Last week, we made up for another losing teaser by going 3-for-3 in our spread bets in this space and adding another win on a total.
Underdogs bet against the spread via the Week 7 RUMP:
Patriots (+6)
Browns (+6, -115)
Seahawks (+3, -115)
Dolphins +3
Buccaneers +3.5Eagles @ Giants (+3.5, 43)
The headline for this game might have gone under the radar in the betting market.
The Giants are at their worst when Daniel Jones doesn’t get adequate protection, and the sack numbers pile up. This week, the Giants best offensive lineman, Andrew Thomas was ruled out for the season with a foot injury. Even with Malik Nabers expected return from a concussion, the Giants’ offense may not return to being merely mediocre. Yet, the market has only recently adjusted moving the line from -3 to -3.5. With a lookahead line of Eagles -4 last week, a field goal point spread indicated that the Eagles were dinged despite a win, while the Giants hadn’t been downgraded without their left tackle.
The Eagles are 3-2, but it feels things are a mess in Philadelphia. To the point where if they can’t beat the Giants, there might be some real trouble. Which is a little odd since the only touchdown they allowed last week came via a blocked field-goal return.
The offense wasn’t exactly cooking, but maybe they get some grace for shaking off the rust post-bye with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith back in the fold, eventually finishing with a respectable six yards per play. Jump on the -3s while you can.
Pick: Eagles (-3, -120 at FanDuel)
Seahawks @ Falcons (-3, 51)
The Falcons finally won by a reasonable margin last week but, for a team that previously loved to win by a point or two (or in overtime), Atlanta giving a field goal to a capable offense like the Seahawks seems like a good deal on an underdog that will have a better chance of running on them than Seattle did against San Francisco.
The Seahawks had Leonard Williams and rookie Byron Murphy II back at practice this week. If the interior of their defensive line is healthy, the Seahawks can force the Falcons’ run game back into the doldrums they were in before it came alive against the human offense-resuscitator Panthers. It would be nice to have Riq Woolen back, but Devon Witherspoon can limit Drake London’s effectiveness.
Some extra rest already appears to be helping Seattle for a game - after three straight losses - that is important to get them back on track for playoff contention against a team they may be battling with for a wild card.
Pick: Seahawks (+3, -115 at DraftKings)
Chiefs @ 49ers (-1.5, 47)
If the Chiefs go 14-3, win the No. 1 seed in the AFC and one of those losses is on the road to the 49ers, that won’t stand out as odd, or hurt their chances to get back to the Super Bowl. However, the 49ers are likely looking at this game a little differently, as a rematch (for some players, doubly so) of Super Bowl failure.
“Andy Reid off a bye” is a common sentiment to blindly back the Chiefs, but they were on vacation while the 49ers had some extra rest as well. Through six games, the 49ers’ offense are adjusting to not having Christian McCaffrey. The Chiefs are winning despite still struggling to convert in the red zone against some weaker defenses - the Bengals missing defensive line pieces, the Falcons (20th in DVOA) and Saints post-Pete Werner injury. Like the Super Bowl, this should be a close, surprisingly low-scoring game between two teams that have an extensive history of preparing for each other.
Other than their records, there’s no reason not to have these two NFL powers rated equally. So, between a moneyline that should be a little higher with home-field advantage applied, and San Francisco’s focus for a modicum of revenge, we’ll back the Niners to get a win that’s bigger for them than it is for K.C.
Pick: 49ers ML (-120)
Jets @ Steelers (+2, 38)
Our tracking of market ratings come in super-handy in situations like this, where we need to figure what affect something like a Davante Adams trade has on the opinion of the Jets. As we know, going into Monday Night - when the Jets were expected to throw the kitchen sink at the Bills after their head coach had been fired - New York was rated right around league-average. They lost, and looked uninspired doing it. “Average” feels like a compliment.
So, the Jets trade for Davante Adams in another attempt to appease their fearful leader. What happens to their rating in the market? They move up into the low-60s, or on a comparable mean-level to the Lions, Vikings, Packers, Texans and Bills. Because of a 31-year-old receiver with a checkered recent injury history? Huh.
Aaron Rodgers is very quick to get the ball out of his hands. Presumably, because (like me) he doesn’t feel like getting hit by 250 lb mega-athletes who taste blood.
May I introduce you to TJ Watt?
The Steelers should be favored in this game, and they’re not, so, we bet on Pittsburgh.
Getting to sit back and watch Rodgers find someone new to blame is an added bonus.
Pick: Steelers ML (+114 at FanDuel)
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By-the-numbers bet (4-2):
Where possible, we’ll include a bet on a point spread that’s gotten away from our scope of expectation, but where I don’t have a viable on-field case for a bet.
Texans (+3, -115 at Bet365) over Packers
I can make a case for why the Texans can cover or win this game, so it’s not the best example for this space. However, the internal conflict is why this game is here.
I’m on record via the podcast that it’s time to buy Packers’ futures before a 3-game stretch leading into Green Bay’s bye week that could result in a drastic change into how they’re perceived in those markets.
Part of that is because the Packers already hit a 2-season high in the single game betting market ratings. They entered the season in the mid-50s, but, after back-to-back covers, they’ve burst into the 60s. Being -3 against the Texans means they’ve surpassed Houston in the NFL pecking order. CJ Stroud and company didn’t do anything to deserve that, so we’re nearing sell-high territory for the Pack. Even if I don’t want to.
In conclusion, the Packers are valuable in long-term markets, so you can bet on them there and hope they win Sunday. But if you’re betting this game, the valuable side is the Texans.
Teaser of the week (1-5):
Lions +7.5 / Commanders -2 (6-point teaser, -120 at DraftKings)
Vikings -2.5 seemed a little high so it’s not surprising the line has come down a little bit. The line move is also a sign that a NFC North divisional battle coming down to one possession is that much more likely.
In reverse, the Commanders have been bet up from -7.5 to -8. I’m not ready to be laying points with Washington’s defense, but we can still get this line teased under a field goal in a game the market seems to think will be a blowout. Considering the Panthers’ -100 point-differential through six games, it’s hard to argue with that, but I’ll just ask the Commanders to win by three or more.
Total of the week (3-2-1):
Raiders/Rams: Over 43.5 points
I’m uncomfortable with laying a touchdown with the Rams or even teasing them down, because the line is a massive boost to L.A.’s rating, while the Raiders plummet. That rating boost is based on the hope that Cooper Kupp returns. If so, I think they could just about score at will against the Raiders.
Even if Kupp isn’t back, we saw last week how vulnerable the Las Vegas defense is without Christian Wilkins, when Najee Harris ran right through them. We know Sean McVay saw that, and even if he didn’t, he loves calling runs plays for Kyren Williams to set up the play-action game for Matthew Stafford. Meanwhile, the Rams’ defensive DVOA is third-worst in the NFL, so the Raiders should be able to participate in point accumulation.
They see me rollin'. They hatin'. Patrollin' and tryna catch me ridin' dirty.