NFL Week 8: Best bets for Sunday
Packers stay hot, a cross-conference clash between disappointing contenders, and more!
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
The Week 7 Best Bets saved another NFL Sunday that was completely devoid of upsets.
Often, a summary of the five winners can be as simple as “we were right,” but you usually can learn more from the losses.
It’s easy to brush off the Chiefs beating the 49ers as if it were some predetermined destiny, that Patrick Mahomes wins all games as an underdog, but it would have been nice to know that Deebo Samuel had pneumonia. Had Chris Jones contracted cholera last-minute, the Chiefs might have been less likely to win what was deemed a coin-flip game. As always, if it was so obvious that Kansas City would win, the money bet on them would flow in so aggressively that they would no longer be a small underdog. Instead, the line closed close to 49ers -3.
We may have spoke a teaser win into existence last week, but no amount of tough talk can stop Antonio Pierce from settling for a field goal, as the Raiders became the first team not to score at least 24 points against the Rams. If we didn’t know it before, we learned false bravado has to be considered in games involving Las Vegas.
Underdogs bet against the spread via the Week 8 RUMP:
Rams +3 (Winner!)
Cardinals +3.5
Browns +9
Saints +7.5
Cowboys +4Colts @ Texans (-5, 46)
The Colts are 6-1 against the spread, so the betting market is starting to feel like they’re underrated. We’ve estimated that their market rating has sat in the mid-30s (out of 100) on this ride to a great record of covering. In three of those spread-covering games, Joe Flacco was at the helm, and we’re on record that Indianapolis should be rated higher with him playing (and they weren’t).
With Anthony Richardson, the Colts are 3-1 ATS, backdoor’ing the cover (cutting a 9-point lead to two late) in a Week 1 game where preseason hype about the Texans got so heightened that the Texans were -2.5 at Indianapolis. Richardson’s Colts also lost convincingly to Malik Willis and needed Tim Boyle to get involved to top the Dolphins last week.
If those Week 1 ratings held through to now, the Texans would be -7.5 this week. However, the Colts’ taking money to move this point spread from -6 down towards -4.5 is an indication that their rating is up into the mid-40s, while the Texans’ took a hit after losing a close one in Green Bay.
Over the course of the early part of the season, Houston’s lost Nico Collins but regained Joe Mixon, who ran for 159 yards in the opening week matchup but was hurt in Week 2. The Texans’ defense is second in DVOA, and should be focused on a divisional matchup that, if they win, would put them two games ahead of second place with the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Pick: Texans (-5, -106 at FanDuel)
Eagles @ Bengals (-2.5, 48)
In a weird scheduling twist, both the Eagles’ and Bengals’ last two opponents have been the Giants and Browns.
While that seems like a strangely egalitarian coincidence, Philadelphia had the benefit of facing Deshaun Watson for a full game, and taking on a Giants’ offensive line without Andrew Thomas, accumulating five and eight sacks, respectively. Given the Eagles had just six sacks in their previous four games, can we expect that same force of pass rush in Cincinnati?
If Orlando Brown Jr. can’t go on Sunday, it’s possible the Eagles can get pressure. However, we’ve seen Joe Burrow’s ability to adjust to a thin offensive line in the past (beating Buffalo in the playoffs, for example), so he’s got a better chance of handling it than Watson or Daniel Jones.
The key for me is on the other side of the ball, where the Bengals’ defense has seen reinforcements in the interior. Defensive tackles Sheldon Rankins and BJ Hill have fortified a defense that was getting pushed around in their absence. Getting 176 yards rushing from Saquon Barkley will win you a lot of games, but it’s not likely to be replicated for Philadelphia this week.
After their typical slow start, the Bengals can get back to .500 this week, before hosting the Raiders next, and a rematch with the Ravens following that. As much as they have two straight wins under their belt, if the Bengals are to realize some of their preseason potential, it starts this week.
Pick: Bengals (-2.5, -114 at Pinnacle)
Titans @ Lions (-11.5, 45.5)
In the Thursday Night Football preview we broke down how team’s have fared after playing the rough-and-tumble Lions, but in some cases it works the other way as well.
Detroit won a fist fight in Minnesota last week, and have the Packers on deck. Winning in the NFL is hard enough but “needing” to win by 12+ is not something the Lions are even thinking about.
There’s little defense for the current state of the Titans, but they deserved better than a 34-10 final in Buffalo, in a game they led at halftime. 200 of the Bills’ 389 yards came after Buffalo took a 17-10 lead in the second half, so a Titans’ defense that came in allowing the fewest yards per game in the NFL, held up until the offense fell apart in the second half.
Without Jameson Williams (suspended), the Lions’ offense becomes less explosive, and so should the Lions’ defense without Aidan Hutchinson, keeping the Titans within shouting distance in a game that isn’t mission critical for Detroit.
Pick: Titans (+11.5, -108 at DraftKings)
Packers @ Jaguars (+4, 49.5)
The Jaguars beat the Patriots, likely saving Doug Pederson his job, but they’ll need more reliable production than get a 90-yard punt return touchdown and Tank Bigsby running through the Patriots, against the Packers.
Even after New England’s paltry effort through the air, only Carolina and Arizona have allowed more yards per pass attempt than the Jags’ secondary, and now they’re supposed to slow down Jordan Love?
A total of 49.5 expects a high-scoring game, but having seen Green Bay allow fewer than 100 yards passing to CJ Stroud, 214 to Kyler Murray in a trailing state for most of the game, and 260 yards to Matthew Stafford on 45 attempts, in their last three games, why would we expect much of anything from Trevor Lawrence?
Pick: Packers (-3.5, -115 at FanDuel)
Best bet on Substack: Fellow Substacker was on the Ryen Russillo Podcast this week, and he mentioned that his stuff is free before the U.S. Election. In an attempt to remain as unbiased as possible, he doesn’t vote. If you’re eligible (I’m not), you really should. If (somehow) you still need help sifting through the mayhem, or haven’t lost your will to live as we approach the possible nadir of society, check out his Stack “” that also has a sports tilt to it as well.
By-the-numbers bet (5-2):
Where possible, we’ll include a bet on a point spread that’s gotten away from our scope of expectation, but where I don’t have a viable on-field case for a bet.
Panthers (+10.5, -112 at DraftKings) over Broncos
Ok, here we go.
The Panthers are awful. Against the Commanders, they looked like the worst team in the history of the NFL, and now they’re starting Bryce Young.
We use our market rating system for the purposes of trying to determine how team’s are valued. Our scale suggests that a team should never be lower than 20/100 or higher than 80/100. If a team is rated beyond either pole, you should fade that rating, as they’re considered historic one way or the other, and very few teams actually are.
Even if we pushed up the Broncos because they beat the Saints’ preseason-esque roster, a point spread of -10 gives the Panthers a rating of 15/100.
Admittedly, if a team was to be historically bad, it would look something like:
Traded a haul of draft picks for a bad young quarterback
Were so bad the next year they finished 2-15, but didn’t have the No. 1 pick
Biggest offseason acquisition was Diontae Johnson
Best defensive player, Derrick Brown, lost for the year in Week 1
However, we’re supposed to automatically bet on a team that’s rated through our artificial rating floor.
Teaser of the week (2-5):
Jets -1/ Buccaneers +8.5 (6-point teaser, -120 at DraftKings)
Call it an emotional hedge, but it would be objectively funny if the Jets lost to the Patriots this week. Taking New York down to the point where they just need a victory against a Patriots’ team that’s devoid of talent and - if you ask their (seemingly overwhelmed) head coach - toughness, is the only way to play a game where there’s little to like about either side against the point spread.
Teasing the Jets allows us to bring Tampa Bay up to +8.5. It’s hard to determine whether a lookahead line of Buccaneers -2.5 has moved to Falcons -2.5 because of a rating-drop caused by getting beaten up by the Ravens, or because of the physical toll taken by losing their top receivers. Either way, that shift in perception is a bit of a guess about who should be the favorite, but the line hasn’t moved across a key number. Using a teaser leg, we can dare the Falcons to win on the road in a rematch of a game where Atlanta had a hard time getting the Bucs’ offense off the field.
Total of the week (3-3-1):
Bills/Seahawks: Under 47 points (Bet365)
We’ve recently tried the team total unders for the Seahawks and Bills on the podcast, to varying degrees of success, but now that they face each other it’s time to play the game total under.
The entire Seahawks’ offense depends on having a dominant deep threat to get down the field and the offensive line buying the quarterback time for such plays to develop. If DK Metcalf (week-to-week with a knee sprain) isn’t able to play, that would leave a giant hole in the game plan. Meanwhile, barring a minor miracle-return from either Abraham Lucas or George Fant, the Seahawks will be on their fourth right tackle against a Bills front-seven that’s much better at rushing the passer than what Seattle had to deal with against the Falcons last week.
On the other side, the Seahawks’ defense has gotten healthier from earlier in the season with last week’s return of some key pieces on the defensive line. Josh Allen’s topped-out at 215 yards passing in four road games this season. Throw in a forecast for cold and rainy conditions, and you have a good recipe for an under on a total that’s higher than average.
Tossed in the fire, fueled by desire. Messages hotting up burning through the wire.