NFL Week 8 betting: The “Player Prop Express”

10 player props and 5 RATS to parlay

Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.

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Years from now, historical anthropologists will attempt to study, and come to a conclusion about, one of the great modern mysteries of our time - why were there no teams on their bye during Week 8 of the 2024 season?

There’s no international game Sunday morning, no double-header on Monday, and yet, eight weeks into the 18-week season, every team’s on the slate, which means we’ve got players on 28 teams to choose from for our fake football team this Sunday.

How did our “fantasy team” do last week?

At 5-5, we paid the juice for the thrill-a-minute action of betting player props, for a small loss. 

Each Sunday, we pick out 10 players that are valuable bets to either over-perform or under-perform expectations. It’s way better than hoping everyone has a big game. With an eye on being profitable each week, and considering that a “win,” we assign each play to a fantasy football position, with our reasoning in easily-digestible point form.

QB1: Justin Herbert - Over 201.5 passing yards (-110 at Bet365)

• Despite lacking receiving talent, Chargers’ offense has loosened up due to game-situation

  • Throwing 30+ times the last two weeks, after <30 in first four games before L.A.’s bye week

  • Opposing defenses focusing on stopping Chargers’ run game

• Market slow to react to Herbert’s production, lining yardage only ~10 yards higher compared to Week 6 game at Denver

• Saints’ defense is 23rd in opponent yards per pass attempt

QB2: Geno Smith - Longest pass completion - Under 34.5 yards (-106 at Pinnacle)

• Top deep-threat, DK Metcalf, doubtful for Sunday’s game

  • Smith to rely on underneath targets Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Noah Fant

• Bills’ capable of pressure to minimize Smith’s chances of getting ball deep downfield

  • Seahawks on fourth-string right tackle

• Rainy weather expected in Seattle

RB1: Breece Hall - Under 18.5 rush attempts (-110 at DraftKings)

• Jets won comfortably in first game, but Hall had just 16 carries

  • Braelon Allen was given 10 carries, under-utilized resource could act as closer, if necessary

• With Drake Maye, Patriots can keep game more competitive

• Aaron Rodgers looking to foster more cohesion in the passing game

  • More targets to Davante Adams

  • Hall more explosive threat in pass game vs. run

  • Right side of offensive line banged-up

• Patriots’ pass defense worse than mediocre run defense

  • Run defense was challenge by Jerod Mayo in “soft” comments

RB2: Saquon Barkley - Under 99.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)

• Barkley coming off huge game against former team

• Bengals’ healthy defensive line interior capable of slowing straight-ahead run game

  • Hurts more likely to keep and run outside

• Eagles’ shut down Giants’ offense with eight sacks, took big lead, could afford to work run game

• Favored Bengals’ may force Eagles to open up offense, more passing

WR1: Stefon Diggs - Over 5.5 receptions (+100 at Pinnacle)

• Texans’ pass offense stymied last week, but now face mediocre Colts’ pass defense

• Diggs had six receptions on six targets in Week 1 matchup

  • Must help replace Nico Collins (eight targets in Week 1)

• 7+ targets in five straight games

WR2: Terry McLaurin - Under 56.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)

• Fade of Marcus Mariota being able to connect deep down the field

  • McLaurin likely to be consistently matched up with Jaylon Johnson, one of NFL’s top corners

• Bears’ missing safety Jaquan Brisker and nickel-corner Kyler Gordon

  • Better matchups for Mariota elsewhere

WR3: Jerry Jeudy - Over 42.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)

• Improvement in downfield pass offense with Jameis Winston replacing Deshaun Watson

• Season-high 80 snaps for Jeudy last week

• In one drive for Winston, Jeudy was targeted four times

  • 18-yard reception

• Ravens’ cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey doubtful, Nate Wiggins questionable

TE: Noah Gray - Over 25.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)

• Defenses still attending to Travis Kelce, Gray has caught all 10 targets from Patrick Mahomes in the last three games

  • Doesn’t include touchdown called back due to holding penalty vs. Saints

• While listed as backup tight end, Gray on the field for over 50% of snaps in every game this season

• Three straight games with 29+ receiving yards

FLEX: Jalen McMillan - Over 40.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 at Bet365)

• Obvious top-target replacement for injured star receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin

  • Snap-share of 77% or more in first three games before injury

  • Eight targets last week

• Using rushing + receiving market with possibility for a carry

  • One carry for 11 yards last week

• Lined as underdogs, Buccaneers may have to come from behind or keep up with Falcons’ offense

  • Bucs allowed 550 yards in first meeting

SUPER-FLEX: Christian Watson - Longest reception over 16.5 yards (-110 at Pinnacle)

• Christian Watson only has nine receptions this season. Injured in Week 4, he missed the Packers’ fifth game, playing just four healthy games this season

  • Caught three passes of 30+ yards in four games

  • One game was Malik Willis’ first game, where Packers ran all over the Colts, and passing wasn’t necessary

• Jaguars’ play primary man-to-man coverage, leaving them vulnerable to Watson’s size mismatch

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BONUS:

RATS (Round-robin Anytime Touchdown Scoring) Parlay:

• Jaylen Waddle (+175)

• Jalen Hurts (+160)

• Josh Allen (+155)

• DJ Moore (+170)

• DeAndre Hopkins (+200)

1.1 unit: 10 0.1-unit bet of threes, one 0.1-unit bet of all five.

*Odds derived from FanDuel

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