NFL Week 8 Market Report
The top-rated team takes an ‘L’, and so does the lowest… again.
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
After a few weeks where it was pretty quiet, the “witching hour” this past Sunday was - as the kids said at one time - “lit.”
Close games are the top requirement for the 3pm (ET) hour to be the type of entertainment that the NFL is built on. With most games pretty uneventful or uninteresting late, the league plays a numbers game at that time of the week, hoping more than one or two games come down to the wire, masking poor play, non-sensical officiating, and overwhelmed coaches. So, having six of eight games come down to the final possession this past week was the NFL’s dream.
Three hours later, just one of five games had an interesting finish - but what a finish it was.
For a breakdown of Week 8 and all the betting takeaways, check out the Tuesday episode of THE WINDOW: Sports betting podcastEstimated market ratings
Before the season, we explained the process of how the betting market takes the first odds offered from sportsbooks about a team’s quality - regular season win (RSW) totals - and translates that into a team rating.
Each game provides a subsequent data point that we receive from oddsmakers and bettors alike - the closing line (the last available point spread to bet before kickoff).
Taking the most recent game’s closing line into account, we adjust every team’s market rating to reflect where they were relative to the rest of the league before the previous week’s games.
These are not power rankings - a largely pointless exercise done for clicks - that simply list each team in a made-up order for readers to argue about.
They are ratings, which allow for the possibility that teams can be perceived to be equal - or have a large gap - amongst the other 31 teams in the NFL. To better understand the chart above, refer back to Week 1’s market rating column. You can argue about them, OR you can just bet against them.
Beyond the involvement of the highest-rated team in the league, the Ravens-Browns was the most interesting market of Week 8. The line moved from an open of -10 to -7.5, asking us to try to figure out why, as we update our estimate market rating.
Baltimore’s rating, that we had estimated at 73 going into Week 8, couldn’t have come down more than a tick, due to Ravens’ defensive back injuries to Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins. The Browns - with Jameis Winston replacing Deshaun Watson - have to be upgraded to get to where the line settled at 7.5. Cleveland’s rating went from the high-20s to mid-30s. From past seasons and their regular-season win total in betting markets, we know the Browns were expected to be around league-average (50/100). Beating the Ravens suggests that Cleveland needs to be rated closer to that original projection from the offseason.
Week 8 began with a similar situation, with the Rams getting back Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, but the line barely moved from Vikings -3 to -2.5. That’s because a game with the Vikings as a field goal favorite already had a significant upgrade to the Rams’ rating built in. Los Angeles won, so I’d expect a point spread going forward that gives them credit for being an above-average team.
The 49ers saw their rating dip after losing to the Chiefs, but Deebo Samuel came back just long enough to open up the 49ers’ offense. Early-week lines of -4 ended up winning, while the high line of -6 ended up pushing.
Just looking at the Bengals’ drift towards the high side of their rating and the Eagles’ remaining on the low side of theirs, should have been a sign to steer clear of Cincinnati.
Similarly, if the Jets were playing anyone else, being given credit as a better-than-average team would be patently ridiculous. Those who bit the bullet and backed the Patriots should be given credit for relying on New York to find a way to lose.
The Dolphins have a range problem. In that we don’t know what it is. What’s the best we can expect from Miami with Tua Tagovailoa? With a home loss to Arizona, they were only improved offensively, still with holes everywhere else.
Bears-Commanders ended dramatically, but the lead up to the game in the betting market had its own twists and turns. Jayden Daniels availability was always going to mess with Washington’s rating. While the Bears came in off a bye week and a 3-game winning streak that was going to provide a boost to theirs. Through three quarters, neither team looked worthy of being a playoff contender.
I don’t know what to make of the Colts. Initially, it seemed like winning and covering against Tim Boyle in Week 7 gave them a big boost in their rating, as the line for their subsequent game with the Texans dropped from +6 to +4.5. Now I wonder if there’s been more of a downgrade for Houston than I’ve accounted for. Interestingly, the Texans take on the Jets this Thursday, another team that’s being sold aggressively in the market.
The inevitable downgrade for the Bucs ended up settling into the low-40s, and it’s hard to argue after losing to the Falcons. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are out, but what excuse does the Tampa Bay defense have for allowing four touchdown passes by Kirk Cousins?
We’ve buried the lead down here, but it’s appropriate considering the Panthers were given a worse power rating than any team in recent memory, and still managed to stay under a bar that low. The point spread in Denver was built to have Carolina do the bare minimum to cover and they couldn’t do it.
Week 8 betting results
