NFL Week 9: Best bets for Sunday
Cowboys and Dolphins continue to struggle, Bears bounce back, and more!
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
There’s no sugar-coating it, after seven Sundays where the Best Bets did much of the heavy-lifting, they metaphorically pulled a Tyrique Stevenson, waving to the crowd (when the Packers and Colts had 10-point fourth quarter leads), only to turn around, stumble into the mix, and see the metaphorical ball fall into the other team’s hands for a shocking loss.
While we wish we could travel to Arizona for the weekend to get away from the bad vibes, instead, we’ll just bounce back with some winners on Sunday.
Underdogs bet against the spread via the Week 9 RUMP:
Packers +3.5
Patriots +3.5
Raiders +7.5
Giants +4
Buccaneers +9Cowboys @ Falcons (-3, 52)
Dallas had two weeks to prepare for San Francisco, with an expectation that they’d use motivation instilled from last year’s blowout loss to the 49ers, or every other blowout they’ve suffered this season, to play at the top-end of their range.
They were competitive for a half.
That’s in keeping with much of the season for the Cowboys, a team that, frankly, might not just be any good. If you’re looking for clues, an offense that paid big money to Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Zack Martin, isn’t getting production from the cheaper players on offense. Prescott’s erasing much of the good that he and Lamb are capable of, by throwing eight interceptions (to just 10 touchdowns), and Martin’s offensive line isn’t opening holes for the mediocre tailbacks.
Yet, the market still refuses to treat Dallas like they’re worse than the other teams that were short underdogs in Atlanta - New Orleans (healthy version), Tampa Bay (healthy version), and Seattle (healthy version).
As for Atlanta, the first few games of the season was something of a breaking-in period for the offense, but Kirk Cousins looked considerably different in October (10 TD/3 INT, 109 rating) than he did in September (4 TD/4 INT, 83.5 rating). He’s even unlocked Kyle Pitts (four straight games with 65+ yards).
Yet, the Falcons’ market rating hasn’t moved.
If last week was the best the Cowboys can bring to the table, there’s little reason to believe they’re going to be a valuable bet this Sunday, going against an opportunistic defense that doesn’t need to do much to stop the run, and should be able to turnover Prescott.
The line has crept up from its open at -2.5, but that’s just an indicator that the market’s finally catching up to two teams headed in opposite directions.
Pick: Falcons (-3)
Chargers @ Browns (+1.5, 43)
The Chargers are steady. We’ve said it before, but under Jim Harbaugh, you know what you’re going to get with a team that’s lack of special talent anywhere but the quarterback position caps their ceiling.
The Browns are the X-factor. Which, with Jameis Winston, is an upgrade from what they were with Deshaun Watson. Even with a win over the Ravens, Cleveland’s unlikely to become a great, or even very good, team. However, as a home underdog for a second straight week - and this time to a much lower-rated team, the Browns’ rating hasn’t yet moved up to make them an average team.
If we played set-it-and-forget-it with the Browns’ rating at dead-average (50/100), they’d be a short favorite in this game, which feels like a more palatable line. If the market is still thinking of Cleveland as the group that couldn’t overcome Watson’s poor play, the absence of Nick Chubb, and an injured offensive line, at the start of the season, then we’ll happily take the Browns to win a second game, before it catches on.
Pick: Browns (+1.5)
Dolphins @ Bills (-6, 49)
Speaking of the market not catching on, there’s two things bettors and oddsmakers might be missing:
The Dolphins aren’t very good. Rated similarly to where they were before Tua Tagovailoa was concussed in the first meeting between Buffalo and Miami, the Dolphins lost outright at home to Arizona, looking a lot like the team that should have lost to the Jaguars in Week 1. That rating has held steady to this week, continuing to ignore that a loss in high-end personnel from last season has caused the Dolphins’ to go from 19th to 27th in defensive DVOA. Tagovailoa’s absence allowed the market to assume Miami was still the 2023 version of themselves, when they’re not.
Even at Miami’s best, the Bills are a bad matchup for Miami. You can go back to our Week 2 Thursday Night Football preview or we can just quote it here:
“…if the regard for the Dolphins comes from fear over their offensive attack, it’s worth noting that Buffalo held Tua Tagovailoa to 173 passing yards and Miami to 275 total yards (compared to 473 for the Bills) in last season’s Week 18 winner-takes-the-division season finale. Earlier in the season, the yardage totals were tighter, but were cosmetically enhanced after Buffalo took a 31-14 lead into halftime in Orchard Park.”
Now add in Week 2’s game, which was decided after three Tagovailoa interceptions, and before he left the game.
The Bills’ defense is built for speed - pass-rush and coverage - to match up with teams from the football future like how the Dolphins want to play. While that presents a problem against teams like the Ravens, Buffalo knows they have to play Miami twice per season, and might not have to beat Baltimore to get where they need to go.
What seems like a big point spread for two rivals, feels that way just based on branding. It’s time to let the concept of the Dolphins as a contender go.
Pick: Bills (-6)
Bears @ Cardinals (-1, 44.5)
On the Tuesday episode of THE WINDOW podcast, I broke down why the finish to Bears-Commanders left me near-catatonic (and why you were saved from such pain), but we can’t hold grudges in sports betting.
The Bears’ 3-game winning streak was interrupted by their bye week, and seeing Jayden Daniels for the first time might have come as a shock to a defense that had played pretty well, but it’s not like they gave up a touchdown… until, well, you know.
Two early Commanders’ drives - one that featured a 61-yard play - ended in field goals, but Washington didn’t get much after that, with just two field-position-centric field-goal drives.
The Bears’ offense, which took a while to get going but finished with three good drives, should have an easier go of it in Arizona (26th in defensive DVOA).
The Cardinals may be getting credit for beating an over-rated Dolphins team, playing them as equals in the boxscore, six days after a game they probably should have lost to the Chargers - had their not been two critical fumbles costing L.A., conservatively, 10 points.
Chicagoans flee the Windy City for Arizona in the winter, so if the Chargers can have a notable fan presence in Glendale, Bears fans should be out in full force to help disrupt a Cardinals’ offense that’s been getting by mini-Hail Mary’s from Kyler Murray to Marvin Harrison Jr. Though that may be the best way to score on the Bears, we’ll bet they bounce back from a disappointing loss, remembering that they played well enough to win in Washington and can do so in friendlier confines this week.
Pick: Bears ML (+100)
Best bet on Substack: You get to pick. That’s the thing about this platform. If you want the free stuff, you can get that. If you think the paid stuff is valuable, you get to register that vote. You don’t have to go to the usual places and get force-fed someone who’s some power-broker’s buddy. You can what you want here. Not what they want you to read, in-between ads.
There were more layoffs in the sports betting content industry this week, and I discussed why another round of job cuts from big media companies and their irresponsible spending is why this platform is the future of quality content. We’ll get back to recommending other Stacks next week, but THIS week? Give the Friday episode of THE WINDOW podcast a listen to better understand why our experiment here is going to work.
By-the-numbers bet (5-3):
Where possible, we’ll include a bet on a point spread that’s gotten away from our scope of expectation, but where I don’t have a viable on-field case for a bet.
Vikings (-5, at DraftKings) over Colts
We’re documented in our affinity for the Colts whenever Joe Flacco plays, and a lack of interest in Indy when Anthony Richardson starts, but that was at times when the Colts were rated in the betting market the same with Flacco as they were with Richardson.
All of a sudden, likely thanks to a great record against the spread, the Colts are being rated much better than when we hung a virtual “buy” sign on them with Flacco. The bar has been raised with this line falling from -7 to -5.
Meanwhile, we faded the Vikings last week, citing teams’ results after playing the Lions, and on a short week to boot. If we expected a low-end Minnesota performance in that scenario, with extra rest and coming off two losses in five days, we should expect a high-end effort on Sunday night.
It’s a classic buy-low, sell-high, that’s usually reserved for underdog plays, but in this case, there’s some value in the favorite, who’s defense is good enough to get to Flacco better than the teams he’s faced earlier in the season.
Teaser of the week (2-6):
Eagles -1.5/Seahawks +7.5 (6-point teaser, -120 at DraftKings)
Speaking of “by the numbers,” we’re not quite getting the perfect value in either of these teaser legs, but we’ll play on undaunted.
Eagles -7.5 is a significant upgrade to Philadelphia, but at least we’ve seen them rated this high before - after the first game of the season and much of last season. Why this line crosses the key number of -7 lies in the Jaguars’ loss to the Packers (and cluster injuries at receiver) being the final straw, forcing them to realize that their season is over. Trading a franchise-tagged left tackle (Cam Robinson) to Minnesota isn’t something you’d do if you felt you could still make the playoffs.
While the line is too high by the numbers, teasing it back down under a field goal is the way to play an Eagles team that’s found their health, and a rejuvenated defense.
Doing that allows us to take the Seahawks up to +7.5. We’ve detailed what when into the Rams’ win over the Vikings, which may also have the Rams overvalued this week. Meanwhile, if the Seahawks get DK Metcalf back, their loss to the Bills (at least the margin) can be virtually thrown out, and there’s reason to believe they should be a short favorite instead of enough of an underdog that we can cross the key number of +7 with a second teaser leg.
Total of the week (4-3-1):
Broncos/Ravens: Under 46.5 points
Life’s been good for Bo Nix. The Browns got to face a preseason-esque Saints’ roster on a short week, then the Panthers regular season roster. Those opponents made life easy on a Broncos’ offense that had otherwise struggled to score touchdowns. Even though the Ravens’ defense has struggled recently in the pass game, that’s come against drop-back quarterbacks. Of which Nix is not. It should be quite a reality check for the Broncos’ rookie to go to Baltimore.
Luckily for Sean Payton, while his offense may sputter in a much tougher matchup, his defense was playing excellently long before the soft part of Denver’s schedule, sitting in the top-5 of DVOA all season.
Since Week 1’s trip to Kansas City, the best defense (by DVOA) that the Ravens have faced was the Bills (7th, but a good matchup for Baltimore) and the Buccaneers (15th). Against the Chiefs (4th), the Ravens scored 26 points - a decent target for them this week. That would require the Broncos to score more than 20, an optimistic number for Nix and company.
It’s close to midnight, and something evil’s lurking in the dark. Under the moonlight, you see a sight that almost stops your heart.