NFL Week 9 Market Report
The bottom-rated team finally strikes again, and other moves before kickoff
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
I yawned.
It couldn’t have been due to lack of sleep, since we were all just donated an extra hour on Sunday.
For reasons that still seem antiquated at best, and our only-child cat refuses to understand.
After a rousing Week 8 “witching hour,” this past Sunday’s 3pm ET stretch was a snoozer. Perhaps the time change confused the NFL’s script-writing puppet masters, but being compelled to dart my eyes back and forth between Patriots-Titans and Saints-Panthers is every bit the indictment that it sounds like.
Later in the day, Rams-Seahawks and Jaguars-Eagles were both compelling late, but how much of that had to with dual incompetency festivals, as coaching malpractice and wildly confusing officiating rulings were more of a factor than quality play?
For the third time in four weeks, favorites dominated, with the lone underdog winning outright being that scrappy, juggernaut-in-waiting in Carolina, of course.
For a breakdown of Week 9 and all the betting takeaways, check out the Tuesday episode of THE WINDOW: Sports betting podcastEstimated market ratings
Before the season, we explained the process of how the betting market takes the first odds offered from sportsbooks about a team’s quality - regular season win (RSW) totals - and translates that into a team rating.
Each game provides a subsequent data point that we receive from oddsmakers and bettors alike - the closing line (the last available point spread to bet before kickoff).
Taking the most recent game’s closing line into account, we adjust every team’s market rating to reflect where they were relative to the rest of the league before the previous week’s games.
These are not power rankings - a largely pointless exercise done for clicks - that simply list each team in a made-up order for readers to argue about.
They are ratings, which allow for the possibility that teams can be perceived to be equal - or have a large gap - amongst the other 31 teams in the NFL. To better understand the chart above, refer back to Week 1’s market rating column. You can argue about them, OR you can just bet against them.
The Ravens weren’t hearing your concern about their secondary, or whatever complaint one might have about the top-rated team in the NFL
At least for now - we’ll see what the market thinks of a potentially healthy(ish) 49ers team next week.
Baltimore blew the doors off the Broncos, who we were concerned might be overvalued coming off wins over the worst of the worst in the NFL. If they weren’t going to score much, at least Denver’s defense could have lived up to their hype.
You don’t often get to bet a NFL game before the line crosses the key number of three, but it happened twice this week.
The Packers went from +3.5 to +2.5 with Jordan Love’s health, but a good value bet on Green Bay backfired when Love threw a back-breaking pick-6 at the end of the first half. The Pack might have been able to backdoor the original +3.5 point spread if not for that bonus touchdown allowed.
Earlier in the day, the Falcons won and covered -2.5, -3, and -3.5. So, getting Atlanta early in the week technically didn’t matter. However, that line move wasn’t based on any fundamental injury news, so beating the market in a more organic way is a good sign that we’re using market ratings to put ourselves in the best position to win, at least before the ball starts bouncing around in a weird way.
Speaking of football’s weirdness, the Vikings looked like the variance monster might bite into their bettors as they somehow didn’t score in the first half against the Colts. Predicting Minnesota would play at the top-end of their range ended up being profitable, especially as the Colts’ rating got out of hand with excitement about Joe Flacco taking over at quarterback. 179 passing yards later, and maybe that optimism was unwarranted?
Speaking of quarterback-centric hope, Jameis Winston’s three interceptions and six sacks suggest the Browns’ new rating upgrade might have gone too far instead of not far enough. However, the real concerning issue in Cleveland was a defense that was burned on a pair of 3rd-and-very-long breakdowns in a secondary that allowed Justin Herbert two of the easiest long touchdowns he’ll ever get.
The Eagles couldn’t quite match up to their rating upgrade, but if their ceiling is in place because their head coach gets caught up in fake-toughness feats of strength by constantly going for 2-point conversions, then so be it.
Did the Jets meet their Week 9 rating last Thursday, or was that a bottom-of-the-range performance from the Texans? Two Garrett Wilson touchdown catches were centimetres away from not happening, before factoring in Kaimi Fairbairn’s kicking struggles.
Similar questions could be asked about the Rams, who got a big boost in being made a small road favorite in Seattle, and won, but maybe got more than a little assistance from the Seahawks’ offensive line.
What happened to the Bills’ defense? Penalties and a Keon Coleman drop-turned-interception stopped Buffalo from covering the spread even despite an inability to get the Dolphins off the field. It didn’t cost them in the standings, but we’ll treat them with a raised eyebrow when playing teams with an offensive pulse.
The Cardinals and Bears flip-flopped in the market ratings after drastically different Week 8 results. Usually, that means the downgraded team might be worth a bet. Not this past Sunday, as Chicago’s offensive line issues came back to the forefront, helping Arizona to more pressures than they likely ever imagined. The Cardinals were 30th in pressure rate before the game, but had six sacks of Caleb Williams.
Guys, I don’t think the Saints are really a “45.” By NFL rule, if a head coach loses to the Panthers, he gets fired. While the Raiders will likely get around to exercising that right, New Orleans has finally pink-slipped Dennis Allen.
With a career record of 26-53, who could have seen this coming?
It’s impressive that Allen has 79 games of head coaching experience - proof that maybe not everyone’s in a deserved organizational position.
We should have been sweating out a point spread result on Monday night. The Chiefs should have been around -5.5 or -6, but wide receiver injuries kept the Buccaneers’ rating low, and the point spread high enough that Tampa Bay was headed for a cover regardless of whether Todd Bowles - the former Washington football player - abstained from winning late on Election Night’s eve.
As we approach Week 10, we’ve tightened up some ranges where possible. Giving up on things like “the Cowboys might turn it around and become a divisional contender” and “maybe the Vikings aren’t for real?” as viable options.
Week 9 betting results
