NFL Wild Card Weekend: Best bets for Commanders-Buccaneers
Getting healthy at the right time, the Buccaneers’ experience should shine through Sunday night
The Commanders are back in the playoffs and the Buccaneers are back in playoff primetime. Tampa Bay’s run of NFC South titles recently had them capping Wild Card Weekend on Monday Night Football, so they’ll be quite familiar with the bright lights of primetime in the postseason, whereas the spotlight on Sunday night is on the presumptive Offensive Rookie of the Year in a tough matchup.
Commanders @ Buccaneers (-3, 50.5)
The first move in the market was towards the Buccaneers last Sunday, as Tampa opened -3 ticked up towards -3.5, but the bettors interested in Washington getting more than a field goal made their presence felt almost instantly, and we’ve settled back to where it all began.
It’s an interesting point spread market, because if we played the “blind resume” game, and I told you that a pretty woeful franchise - with just one win over a playoff team this season - was going on the road against a team who’s won their division for four straight years, you’d likely expect a bigger point spread. However, the Buccaneers spent much of the season rated like just a slightly above-average team, while the Commanders’ used their breakthrough in September to push them to a similar level, even getting some credit for only losing by seven at Baltimore in October.
Washington’s 3-game losing streak revealed some cracks after a 7-2 start, but the Commanders closed the season with five wins a row. However, many of those performances were more than a little shaky. After a Week 14 bye, Washington:
Almost coughed up a big lead to Spencer Rattler
Were down 21-7 when Jalen Hurts got hurt and trailed by 11 in the fourth quarter against the Eagles before a semi-miraculous comeback
Beat the Falcons in overtime with help from Raheem Morris’s coaching malpractice and ignorance of the concept of timeouts
Scored all of three points in the first half against the Cowboys in Week 18
Washington’s 12-5 and have an electric talent at quarterback, so they’re going to get the benefit of the doubt over a less interesting team, but will Daniels’ potential be realized, or will it be thwarted by one of the few defensive head coaches left in the NFL?
It would be one thing if Todd Bowles had to throw on the tape of the rookie quarterback to see what he’s capable of, but his Buccaneers defense has already seen Daniels first hand. While it was the No. 2 pick’s NFL debut in Week 1, the fact that Daniels took off running a season-high 16 times gives Tampa even more of an understanding of the back-breaking plays he can make with his legs.
For all the hand-wringing about the Bucs’ closer-than-ideal Week 18 win over the Saints, I haven’t heard anyone mention that they were without Jamel Dean, Antoine Winfield, and Jordan Whitehead - three quarters of their secondary, all of which are expected to be back this Sunday. As an added bonus, Shaq Barrett came out of retirement to augment the rush on passing downs.
Offensively, there should be few complaints about Baker Mayfield’s play this season, despite having to guide an elastic group that’s quickly needed rookie Jalen McMillan to replace Chris Godwin, an absence of Mike Evans, while managing the usage split between Rachaad White and burgeoning star Bucky Irving. Other than Tampa in the opener, Washington’s defense hasn’t faced any of the other top offenses in the league.
Playoff success often comes down to experience, and when the Bucs are at full health, they have it. Without having to worry about getting Evans the ball for contract incentive purposes, Mayfield can rely on his running game against a defense allowing 4.8 yards per rush (third-worst), and create a positive game script to put pressure on Daniels in his first career playoff start.
Pick: Buccaneers (-3, -105 at FanDuel)
Austin Ekeler: Over 2.5 receptions (-108 at FanDuel)
After being out for five weeks with a concussion, Ekeler returned in Week 18 and saw a full workload of 35 snaps to prepare him for the playoffs. While he’s gone over 2.5 receptions in only five of 12 games played, he caught a pass in all 12, and two in 11. When Ekeler was out, starting running back Brian Robinson didn’t show that he could add much value in the passing game, and this game sets up as one where Daniels will have to use every possible option at his disposal.
Baker Mayfield: Under 34.5 pass attempts (-115 at Bet365)
Only two teams have allowed more yards per carry than the Commanders. This shouldn’t be that complicated - take turns between your two fully-capable running backs and hand the ball off. Mix in throws on play-action and let your defense bottle up the rookie quarterback and stuff a group of average running backs. That’s essentially been the script this season, as Mayfield’s thrown it 35 times or more in just five games.
Rachaad White: Over 28.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Bucky Irving’s the first option, but it’s taken a while to fully get there for Tampa Bay, and there’s still plenty of room for production from Rachaad White.
A blowout in Week 17 and minimal work in Week 18 should have White fresh, and those games against the Panthers and Saints were the only ones all year where the Bucs’ incumbent starting tailback wasn’t on the field for at least 50% of the snaps. Without a touch against the Saints, it was only the second game that White didn’t have more than 30 yards from scrimmage.
Even if it’s just in a more traditional backup role - third downs, and one series per half, White should get at least seven total looks, and his average yards per touch this season would project him to at least 30 yards.
Mike Evans: Under 74.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)
One of the most widely-known feuds in the NFL is Mike Evans’ on-field beef with Marshon Lattimore, having faced-off twice per season while Lattimore was in New Orleans. We’d have to regard it as something of a stroke of genius if Commanders’ GM Adam Peters added Lattimore midway through the season on the premise that this might be a playoff matchup, because the former Saint often flustered Evans.
Case in point, in 21 career games against the Saints, Evans averaged 51 yards per game. That’s 14 yards fewer than any other opponent whom he’s faced five times or more.
Lattimore’s missed all but two games since the trade, but he’s set to play on Sunday night. Between a tough matchup, and the potential that the Bucs can be efficient on offense without force-feeding Evans, the under is the bet here.
Cade Otton: Anytime touchdown (+290, FanDuel)
This game is full of sneaky personnel returns, but the offensive piece that might be the most undervalued is Cade Otton.
After playing over 90% of the snaps, and, for one stretch, being the lone reliable option for Mayfield, Otton missed the last three games of the season.
He’s expected to be able to return for this playoff game, and while he’s not likely to get the 10+ targets he was getting after the injuries to Evans and Godwin, at almost 3-to-1, he’s worth a shot to score. Especially since the Commanders allowed the fifth-most touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season.
Sterling Shepard: Anytime touchdown (+390, FanDuel)
Evans (-110) has a tough matchup, while McMillan (+160) and Irving (-150) have been priced out of a range the would make them a valuable bet, let’s turn to a long-time teammate of Mayfield’s, going back to their time together at Oklahoma.
Sterling Shepard’s been on the field for over 50% of the snaps since Godwin’s injury, but missed some time late in the season and been somewhat “out of sight, out of mind.” Having played in Week 18, he might be an option in the end zone, and worth a bet at almost 4-to-1.
Zach Ertz: Anytime touchdown (+275, DraftKings)
I had to double check to make sure that Zach Ertz didn’t score a touchdown in every game this season because, by the end of the year, it sure felt like he did. In reality, it was “just” six touchdowns in five of the last seven games. With five or more targets in six of the last eight games, Daniels isn’t only looking for Ertz in the end zone. He also targets Ertz in 2-point conversion attempts, which only accentuates the rookie’s reliance on a veteran tight end.
Jamison Crowder: Anytime touchdown (+900, FanDuel)
He’s been back for a few games, so we can’t call Crowder a sneaky returnee, but at 9-to-1 to score, he’s priced as if he is.
The Commanders have been looking for a second option to Terry McLaurin and while Ertz has made himself available, Washington’s receivers haven’t stolen the gig.
Crowder’s questionable with a sore hamstring suffered against the Cowboys, so there’s a risk he suits up and doesn’t participate meaningfully, but in the three games he’s been involved in, the veteran slot receiver’s got eight catches for 67 yards and a two-touchdown game to his credit, making him worth the risk at +900.