NFL Wild Card Weekend: Best bets for Broncos-Bills
The Broncos look to linger until the last minute in Buffalo
Sunday’s playoff triple-header starts off in Buffalo in a game that seems hard to line. One prominent sportsbook went with Bills -7.5 and another -8.5 on their respective openers. The 8.5s won out, which is in line with our estimated market ratings (EMR) for each team. In either case, the Bills are a prime teaser leg candidate, if you’re able to find something to pair them with, that is. Of course, the fact that the oddsmakers have left the door open for bettors to bring Buffalo down through the key numbers of -3, -6, -7 and -8 is at the very least a suggestion that the Broncos have more than a puncher’s chance to win outright. Can Denver land that haymaker? That’s for those willing to bet into what seems to be a perfectly fair point spread market to decide.
Broncos @ Bills (-8.5, 47.5)
For this point spread to be “true,” the home team has to be afforded two points of home-field advantage, and have to be rated about 21 “EMR points” better than the opponent. Excluding their fake game in Week 18, the Bills closed the season on a 10-1 run, with their lone loss coming in a game they scored 42 points in. By season’s end, a team projected to win 10 games and battle the Jets and Dolphins for the division, won 13 (could have been 14 if they tried) and clinched the AFC East eons ago. After back-to-back losses early in the season, the Bills went 7-3-1 in the aforementioned 11-game stretch - an indication the market hadn’t caught up to Buffalo’s ceiling despite rating them behind only the Ravens and Eagles when all were fully healthy in late December.
Are the Bills overrated as a No. 3? Not when they’re scoring like they can, taking advantage of the league’s worst defenses and teams ill-prepared for weather (*cough* 49ers *cough*).
While the Bills’ high-end is among the best in the league, the Broncos tied for the best record against the spread (12-5), joining the Chargers and Lions as the most successful teams for bettors this season. To say that a team who was projected to win 5.5 games before the season has been anything other than underrated would be foolish, especially when they’re still only considered a league-average (EMR: 50/100) team.
Denver’s offense has evolved over the course of the season. That’s to be expected with a rookie quarterback, as Bo Nix and Sean Payton had to figure out the plays that work for their first-round pick, but they’ve also had to determine which of the cadre of young, skill-position players deserve more time on the field. While Courtland Sutton was always going to be relied upon, Marvin Mims has stood out amongst a smorgasbord of options at wide receiver, tight end, and tailback, leading the Broncos in receiving in three of four games down the stretch.
The main thing for Denver is the defense. When at its best, the Broncos have been able to go on the road and hold the Chiefs to 16 points, slow the Bengals through three quarters, and shut down the Chargers for a half. Where they’ve stumbled is in the second halves, and when their depth is tested. Despite being second in the NFL in yards per played allowed, Denver allowed all three to come back and win. However, the Chargers were benefitted by the Broncos missing starting cornerback Riley Moss (remember the Browns game fiasco?), the Bengals offense was cookin’ by the end of the season, and the Chiefs won despite scoring just six second-half points (and thanks to a blocked field goal).
It a battle of highly-experienced Seans, the Bills’ McDermott has spent plenty of playoff first rounds at home. Since 2020, when they started winning the AFC East on repeat with Josh Allen starting his prime, Buffalo’s hosted four Wild Card games against the following quarterbacks:
Near-retired Philip Rivers (Colts)
Mac Jones (Patriots)
Skylar Thompson (Dolphins)
Mason Rudolph (Steelers)
While the Bills have won all of those games, they are 2-2 as the favorite against the spread, with tight games against the Colts and Dolphins. Plus, last year’s matchup with the under-manned Steelers that was a one-possession game in the fourth quarter.
Covering an 8.5-point spread is asking the Bills to play better than their rating (like a top-2 team), or hope the Broncos don’t play up to one that has kept them as merely an average group despite a defense rated among the best, and an offense that’s been explosive more often than most of Buffalo’s opponents in a season where the back-half of the schedule has been soft.
Going on the road in the playoffs, as the inferior team with a rookie quarterback is daunting, but of the Broncos’ seven losses, just one has come by more than one score - a 41-10 defeat in Baltimore where the total yardage disparity was a respectable 396-319 against the league’s best highest-rated team. While there’s little technical value to a point spread that’s held firm all week, there’s been no indication that the Broncos will be overwhelmed on the road.
Pick: Broncos (+8.5, -110 at FanDuel)
Javonte Williams: Over 11.5 rushing yards (-110 at Bet365)
The betting markets for the Broncos’ tailbacks, like Sean Payton’s general usage/distribution of them, is chaotic.
Until Week 18 - a notoriously messy game itself, Jaleel McLaughlin hadn’t had more than 24 snaps in a game all season (he had 30 versus the Chiefs), and had more than 10 carries just once. However, since McLaughlin was dubbed the “hot hand” in Week 17 (after missing Week 16 with an injury) and ran for 68 yards on 10 carries, he was given the ball 16 times in the season finale. Unlike the rest of the Broncos’ offense, McLaughlin did very little, running for 39 yards, or just 2.4 yards per carry. Like Seinfeld’s “Soup Nazi,” Payton’s liable to be yelling “Next!” on Sunday.
Javonte Williams did some nice, light work with his five carries last week (28 yards) and led the Broncos’ running backs in snaps in 15 of 17 games this season. There’s no reason to believe he won’t get the start, or at least the 4-9 carries he’s usually afforded as part of Payton’s 3-headed committee. With McLaughlin (31.5) and Audric Estime (21.5) lined at numbers that require at least some consistent usage, Williams is worth a bet against a Bills’ defense that allowed 4.5 yards per carry this season, since he may go over on just three totes.
Bo Nix: Under 35.5 pass attempts (-114 at FanDuel)
In a shocking development, freezing temperatures, scattered flurries, and, most importantly, stiff wind gusts are expected in Orchard Park on a Sunday in January. So, while the point spread suggests “Broncos’ trailing game state = high pass attempt numbers,” it would have to be a big, early deficit for it to make sense that Bo Nix be throwing it constantly. Especially since Payton has to test out his three running backs to see which one’s fully heated.
Nix has gone over this number in just five of his 17 games this season. In Week 1 (a trailing game state) at Seattle, Week 3 (warm climate Tampa Bay), two comfy wins against bad teams (Carolina and Las Vegas), and indoors against the Chargers, who are easier to throw on than run.
Josh Allen: Over 7.5 rush attempts (-108 at FanDuel)
Allen banged up his non-throwing hand early in the season, and that little scare might have tempered the Bills’ willingness to put him in harms way as much as maybe Allen would want to. However, in Week 11’s showdown with the Chiefs, Buffalo’s MVP took off running 12 times including the game-clinching play on fourth down.
After the subsequent bye week, Allen ran just three times in the snow against the 49ers, but then in high-scoring/high-leverage battles with the Rams and Lions, Allen had 10+ carries in both before toning it down against the Patriots and Jets and taking Week 18 (almost) entirely off.
Now it’s playoff time though, so, with fresh legs, Allen will likely be required and willing to run via play design or play-breakdown, pushing him over a number that’s only marginally boosted up from his season average of 6.4 carries per game.
Amari Cooper: Over 2.5 receptions (+155 at Bet365)
Is there room for betting a hunch on Wild Card Weekend?
If there is, file this away as one of those.
The Bills went out of their way to add Amari Cooper midseason, and immediately used him, as he caught four passes, including a touchdown, in his debut. Almost as quickly, Cooper got hurt.
When he came back, he chipped in 55 yards in the big showdown against the Chiefs before a run of weird games after the bye:
Three catches for 12 yards in the snow versus the 49ers
Six catches on 14 targets versus the Rams
0 for 0 on 0 versus the Lions
Cooper closed out the season catching four of five balls thrown his way, but it’s a little weird that he’s on the field less than Mack Hollins. Unless, the Bills are saving him for the playoffs. If his modest numbers in Buffalo mean that someone else on the Bills is getting the Patrick Surtain II treatment Sunday afternoon, Allen may be able to find Cooper a few times, and at better than 3-to-2 odds, it’s worth playing on the hunch that THIS is what the Bills paid for.
Marvin Mims: Anytime touchdown (+260, FanDuel)
Yes, I too miss the ol’ days when Mims’s odds were more than double this to score, but that’s the thing about good times, they don’t last.
Since we started betting on Mims to “do things,” he’s defied the logic that you have to be on the field all the time to be valuable. He hasn’t been on the field for even 50% of the Broncos’ offensive snaps in any game, but since that 93-yard touchdown/laser-beam he caught from Nix in the Monday-nighter against the Browns, Mims has caught 20 of 22 targets, for 11.8 yards per reception and ended the regular season with back-to-back two-touchdown games.
The Broncos regularly run plays designed to easily get him the ball in space and on a cold day in Western New York, he’ll be tough to tackle.
Bo Nix: Anytime touchdown (+370, DraftKings)
The home crowd is going bananas, trying to disrupt the rookie quarterback making his first playoff start on the road. In the back of his mind, he can hear his head coach and play-caller say, “don’t throw a pick in the end zone,” so when that moment comes, down near the goal line and the options are: A) force a throw, of B) take off and go, who would be surprised if Nix chose door “B”?
Nix is tied with Javonte Williams for the most rushing touchdowns on the team, and all you need to know about the market’s conviction about the Broncos’ running back situation is that they all have the same odds to score as the quarterback.
Adam Trautman: Anytime touchdown (+1000, FanDuel)
Lucas Krull: Anytime touchdown (+1500, FanDuel)
Nate Adkins: Anytime touchdown (+1700, FanDuel)
We’ve tried this maneuver before, where we split one unit across three unsung Broncos’ players, and while it didn’t work that night, it didn’t mean it was a bad idea, and it’s going to be “tight end weather” in Buffalo on Sunday.
Since that attempt in Week 17, Adam Trautman - the Broncos’ nominal No. 1 TE - has joined the group with double-digits odds to score (if you shop around).
Taking a unit and splitting it across these three players creates a +300 bet (or as long as +450):
Trautman: 0.5 units for net +4.5 units
Krull: 0.25 units for net +3 units
Adkins: 0.25 units for net +3.5 units
Amari Cooper: Anytime touchdown (+380, FanDuel)
Let’s play a hunch on a hunch, since if we’re right about the first one, and a former Pro Bowl wide receiver (who played in Cleveland) was acquired to be a reliable target for Allen in the cold-weather playoffs, Cooper’s likely going to have a chance to score as well. That is, if Allen and James Cook don’t run all the prospective touchdowns in. Against one of the better run defenses in the NFL, they might find that hard to do, and Allen could then look to his teammates with the best hands.
Ty Johnson: Anytime touchdown (+650, Bet365)
The weather’s not going to be terrible, so at least Allen’s secret receiving weapon out of the backfield shouldn’t be neutralized, and even if it is, a good intermediate target on a windy day is probably worth backing to be involved in high-leverage situations.
The Broncos’ defense has funnelled opponent throws to the running back, with the fifth-most targets against, and any time a good matchup has provided itself, Johnson’s seemingly taken advantage of it with three receiving touchdowns, plus his 114-yard day in Detroit. At +650, he may be the short-pass touchdown target Allen needs when all the Broncos are looking at him near the end zone.