NFL Wild Card Weekend: Best bets for Vikings-Rams
Where to find value in a rare neutral-site playoff game on Monday night
We try to reserve this space for the toy department of life, but every once in a while the latest piece of negative news affects what we do here (while also putting into perspective the occasional cold streaks in betting). That’s been the case with the brutal wildfires in Los Angeles, as that tragedy has forced the Wild Card Weekend finale to be moved from SoFi Stadium to Glendale, Arizona.
The Rams’ win of the NFC West crown was supposed to give them home-field advantage, which appeared to result in a virtual toss-up against the 14-3 Vikings. A point spread that opened Minnesota -2.5 was bet down to essentially Vikings -0.5. Then the news came that this would be played at a neutral site, and we’re back to -2.5, showing once again that home-field advantage in the NFL is priced somewhere between 1.5 and two points.
It’s impossible to confidently predict how the situation in and around Los Angeles will affect the preparation and performance for the Rams, so, as always, we have to handicap this one like any other.
Vikings @ Rams (+2.5, 47.5)
Even before the location and point spread shift, there was already a change in how these teams were perceived when they met not all that long ago.
In Week 8, the Rams had kept their head above water, having just won their second game of the season, and, in surprising news, were getting both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back on a short week against the Vikings. That point spread was set on the other side of the key number of -3, and only a combination of Rams’ optimism, and the pessimism about the Vikings being able to recover from a 60-minute slugfest with the Lions dropped the line that far.
On that Thursday night, the Rams won a game that was another in a long line of results going against teams that had just played Detroit. How can we know that the Lions’ rough-and-tumble style takes a toll on their opponents? All we can do is submit the evidence.
In this case, the Vikings’ 276 total yards and 2.9 yards per carry on offense were so uncharacteristic that they were 71 total yards and 1.2 YPC fewer than Minnesota’s average. That would be one thing if it came against a top-rated defense, but the Rams finished 26th in both categories defensively this season. In their other four games against playoff-level offenses, L.A. allowed 32.8 points per game.
Most importantly, at halftime, the game was tied, but the star left tackle was lost for the season on the final play of the first half, and the Vikings had to play the rest of the game with a backup tackle they trusted so little that they immediately traded for the Jaguars’ Cam Robinson after the game.
Whether this game was to be played in Arizona or L.A., the big question is whether the Rams can keep up with the Vikings’ offense again. In the earlier matchup, fresh off the injured list, Nacua had over 100 yards and Kupp had 51 yards and a touchdown. Kupp kept that production level up for four more games, with 32 receptions and three more touchdowns. However, he’s only had 12 catches in the final five games of his season, which suggests the 31-year old under-sized receiver isn’t physically where he needs to be, and more attention can be rolled over to Nacua.
In a schedule Deja-vu, the Vikings are facing the Rams again having just battled the Lions, but the difference is that instead of three days of rest after losing on a field goal in the final seconds, the Vikings have had a full seven days to get ready after Detroit pulled away in last Sunday night’s regular season finale. That game got away from Minnesota when fourth-down gambles on goal to go situations didn’t go their way, but conversions (or chip-shot field goals) might have altered that result and changed the perception of Sam Darnold and the Vikings going into this game.
With minimal explosive options for Matthew Stafford against Brian Flores’s complex pre-snap schemes, and an expectation that the Rams’ defense will have their hands full more than in Week 8, we’ll take Minnesota under a field goal on a neutral field, as they’re focused this week on a dream season not ending this quickly.
Pick: Vikings (-2.5, -105 at DraftKings)
Justin Jefferson: Under 90.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)
When Kevin O’Connell took over the Vikings, he went to Justin Jefferson and told him he was going to use him like Cooper Kupp was used when O’Connell was the offensive coordinator in Los Angeles. If there’s one team that understands the various routes that Jefferson runs, it’s the Rams.
That knowledge didn’t help in the Week 8 matchup, as Jefferson was the only piece of the Vikings’ offense that worked, as he caught eight passes for 115 yards. This time around, with more time to prepare, the Rams can hold Jefferson to one or two fewer catches (his reception total is 6.5). The Vikings might be OK with that, because, with the emergence of Jordan Addison and the return of TJ Hockenson since last they played, Jefferson’s ability to open things up for others has been the biggest game-changer in Minnesota.
Cam Akers: Over 20.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Vikings-Lions was a rarity in Week 18, as a competitive game that meant something to both sides. Which means we can take some information from it, more than we can many others.
Cam Akers has dug into the snap share that had been dominated by Aaron Jones earlier in the season. Whether it’s due to the attrition of the NFL season that’s piled up on the 30-year-old veteran, or Akers’ fresh legs - now a couple years removed from Achilles surgery, he’s been afforded between five and 13 carries in seven of his 10 games with Minnesota. Coming off a 6-carry/65-yard game in Detroit, he should get at least that this week.
At 4.6 yards per carry with the Vikings, that would be enough to clear 20.5 rushing yards. Any more carries (or added gumption for his former team) and Akers may fly over this total with ease.
Matthew Stafford: Longest pass completion - Under 36.5 yards (-114 at FanDuel)
We’ve tried fading a Stafford deep shot connection a couple times this season, winning against the Jets, but losing on a coverage breakdown in the rain against San Francisco. The handicap remains the same, though. With all the throws underneath to Nacua and Kupp’s slowing down, there are fewer opportunities for Stafford to look deep. Meanwhile, the Vikings kept everything in front of them last week, making it a run of just one completion allowed of over 35 yards in their last six games of the season.
Jordan Addison: Anytime touchdown (+150, FanDuel)
It took a while for Year 2 to get off and rolling for Jordan Addison, as he was capped at three receptions in any game for the first two months of the season. Who knows what clicked, but Addison scored eight times from November on, providing Sam Darnold with a high-grade alternative to Jefferson but without the same defensive attention. Addison might have added to those TD numbers last week if Darnold was able to pull the trigger on one of a few high-leverage plays that seemed to have him schemed open. A look at that tape for Darnold this week should act as a reminder that Addison is a viable option.
Jalen Nailor: Anytime touchdown (+500, FanDuel)
Nailor is the Vikings’ designated hitter - if that were a position in football. With Jefferson running off defenders, and Addison getting notice, Nailor is often found open late in the end zone.
Nailor scored in three straight games to start the season, while the Vikings were waiting for things to click with Addison (and get him healthy), so his six total touchdowns have come at a slower pace over the course of the season, but at 5-to-1 odds, there’s still good value on the Vikings’ No. 3 receiver, who’s on the field for half the snaps and is a proven red zone target.
Demarcus Robinson: Anytime touchdown (+320, FanDuel)
Like Nailor, Demarcus Robinson had a hot streak going at one point this season, getting 3+ targets in each of the first 12 games, including an 8-game stretch where he scored seven times.
A late November incident that’s resulted in Robinson being charged with DUI would put anyone in the doghouse, but it’s hard to imagine that’s why Robinson’s production went down. No catches in four straight games in December is why his odds to score have lengthened, but his snap count hasn’t changed much at all, as he’s still seeing the field over 60% of the time. Robinson played in Week 18 and felt what it was like to catch the ball again. Now that it’s playoff time, there’s no time to handle anyone with kid gloves, so Robinson should get a look in the red zone.