NFL Wild Card Weekend: Best bets for Steelers-Ravens
Steelers built for “close but not quite” against arch-rival Ravens
Here we go again. The Steelers and Ravens are setup for a rubber match, at the end of a season that saw their battle for the AFC North come down to their final games. In the old days (you know, the mid-2010s), this matchup required a 3-point spread, but in the previous meeting - a few Saturdays ago in Baltimore - we pointed out why a 6.5-point spread was more than fair. Three weeks later, and the market’s made the adjustment, drifting the line for Saturday night’s game from an open of Ravens -8.5 up to as high as -10.
Steelers @ Ravens (-10, 43.5)
The Ravens’ 34-17 victory certainly validates not only Week 16’s point spread but supports the idea that the line should be higher for Saturday’s Wild Card showdown. Of course, like most NFL games, things could have gone a lot differently with the result of one high-leverage play.
At 7-7 in the second quarter, Russell Wilson took off running for a 20-yard gain, but got a little greedy going for a touchdown, only to get blasted into a lost fumble on the 4-yard line. It was the type of play that the Steelers usually create and take advantage of, helping them stay competitive in games against teams with explosive offenses or more dominant defenses. Pittsburgh could have also just not allowed a subsequent 96-yard touchdown drive that put them in a trailing game state on the road. Even still, they were tied in the third quarter, and an otherwise close game was broken open with a fourth quarter pick-six from Marlon Humphrey.
We backed the Steelers at home way back in Week 11 in Pittsburgh because of the much-discussed success they’ve had in defending Lamar Jackson. Despite losing by 17 points, the Steelers continued to do a nice job against Jackson, allowing him just 22 rushing yards on nine carries, and only 107 passing yards from Jackson to anyone not named Zay Flowers.
Which brings us to the big question mark coming into a game between two head coaches who don’t wonder much about each other. How well will the Ravens’ offense function without Flowers (who was ruled out on Thursday afternoon)?
Unlike the traditional “No. 1 Wide Receiver,” Flowers isn’t force-fed the ball by his quarterback and offensive coordinator. As a result, his stats are depressed relative to the impact that he has on the field. Defenses have to constantly have eyes on Flowers in order to limit the number of times he touches the ball, because when he does, it’s often electric. With frequent top-and-tail coverage on Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, and others, can get lost in the opponents’ secondary for the big plays that accompany Flowers’ catches and the Ravens’ running game.
Because Flowers isn’t considered on the level of the top tier receivers, his absence isn’t going to change the point spread in a meaningful way. Especially when the line is designed to protect against allowing bettors to tease a potential -8.5 (or lower) under a field goal.
Another factor in this matchup, despite the final score of the last game, is the conservative nature of Mike Tomlin, something that likely hasn’t been dissuaded after recent experience.
We’ve seen Tomlin punt around midfield in the fourth quarter of games where the Steelers were down two scores. When his back is against the wall, he prefers to eschew the optimal play to give his team the best chance to win, instead, wanting to keep his team alive longer - two things that aren’t necessarily one and the same. Earlier against the Ravens, down seven, the Steelers failed on 4th-and-6. Then last week, out of character, Tomlin went for a fourth down on his own 37-yard line at the end of the first half against the Bengals. A turnover, Cincinnati field goal, and eventual 2-point loss, might keep Tomlin awake at night for years.
An overall strategy of staying in touch for as long as possible, waiting for your team’s patented big play on offense (maybe George Pickens opts to show up this week?), defense, or even special teams, isn’t the best for winning outright, but it gives the Steelers a better-than-usual chance to cover as a big underdog. Especially against an offense that might not be as explosive in THIS game as it’s otherwise perceived to be.
Pick: Steelers (+10, -115 at Bet365)
Van Jefferson: Over 9.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)
Like most Steelers’ pass-catchers, usage increased once Russell Wilson took over for Van Jefferson. Not only that, but he was a frequent target in the red zone for Wilson, as one well-travelled veteran had early trust in another. Pickens has the most talent, so Wilson will have to look his way some, but Jefferson has a catch in six of his last seven games, and played in the second-most snaps of any Steelers’ receiver in Week 18 and over the course of the season’s entirety.
Mark Andrews: Longest reception - Under 19.5 yards (-115 at Bet365)
Without Flowers wreaking havoc in the Steelers’ secondary and getting all the attention, any explosive reception is going to have to come from a speed player winning one-on-one. Andrews can win man-to-man battles underneath, but his big gains come when he finds himself wide open during a coverage breakdown. With that less likely to be the case, we’ll bet his overall statistical output comes via volume.
Tylan Wallace: Over 10.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)
Flowers played 14 snaps last week before leaving with his knee injury. Wallace, who was starting to get a little more playing time anyway (10.2 snaps before Week 13, 25.3 from Week 13-17), played a season-high 51 in Week 18 with Flowers out.
Even if you took out an outlier 84-yard touchdown reception, Wallace’s other 10 catches this season have averaged 10.5 receiving yards. While the betting market makes Wallace an underdog to catch two passes, despite a likely increased role, getting one might be enough.
Lamar Jackson: Under 48.5 rushing yards (-110 at Bet365)
The Steelers are down to allowing just 41.5 rushing yards per game to Jackson in eight matchups against the two-time NFL MVP. Even Jackson’s 46 yards in Pittsburgh wouldn’t be enough to top this total, and while he had success on a per carry basis that day, the Steelers limited Jackson to just four carries. In the second game, the Ravens ran Jackson more, but the Steelers seemed ready for it. I expect the same scenario in the rubber match.
Najee Harris: Anytime touchdown (+210, FanDuel)
The big point spread reflects the perception that the Steelers are going to lose and it may not be close. Throw in the other potential options - Jaylen Warren, Wilson, and (Steelers’ offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s weird obsession with) Cordarrelle Patterson - and apparently oddsmakers don’t love the chances that Pittsburgh’s primary runner scores. However, Harris got the only goal-to-go looks last week, including the first crack at taking one in from the 1-yard line when he scored the Steelers’ first touchdown. When a clearcut No.1 tailback is priced this long, we’re almost obligated to bet it.
Van Jefferson: Anytime touchdown (+1300, FanDuel)
Darnell Washington: Anytime touchdown (+1900, FanDuel)
We’ve already broken down why Van Jefferson might be a little more involved, and if we’re going to be offered 13-to-1 odds that a player with two touchdowns already this season scores, then we’ll take it for a half-unit.
For the other half, we’ll look to Darnell Washington, who, admittedly, has seen his targets dry up (officially two in five games) after a stretch where he caught a pass in 10 straight. Washington’s still out there though, playing almost half the snaps down the stretch, and getting an end zone target on a 3rd-and-goal from the 6-yard line against the Bengals (he drew a pass interference penalty). At 19-to-1, he’s too good to pass up as a big target in the play-action pass game.
Isaiah Likely: Anytime touchdown (+270, DraftKings)
The odd thing about Flowers and his injury is that he wasn’t a major option in the end zone, as his four receiving touchdowns were just fourth on the Ravens. The three players ahead of Flowers: Andrews (+135), Rashod Bateman (+140), and Likely (+270).
With Flowers’ out, Bateman’s less likely to get loose deep, and Andrews should get more attention in the red zone. That leaves Likely as an option that falls in the sweet spot of “capable scorer but not drastically hurt by Flowers absence” since Likely has enough speed to create his own mismatch.
Tylan Wallace: Anytime touchdown (+600, FanDuel)
Taking Flowers’ role doesn’t mean you’re filling in for a high-volume scoring option, but Flowers’ usual touchdown odds of around +150 are quite different from the 6-to-1 we’re getting on a player whose athleticism has kept him in the league, and on the field for one of the top offenses in the league.