NFL Wild Card Weekend: Best bets for Packers-Eagles
With quarterback uncertainty at ease, value remains ATS
“Is this a Jalen Hurts line or not?”
Sheldon Alexander asked me this on Clutch Points’ “Clutch Picks” podcast this week, and it’s a great jumping off point for a game where there were questions about both quarterbacks’ availability. In the NFL Playoffs, where the lines are the tightest possible because all motivation is equal and we have a full season’s worth of data to go off of, uncertainty is the only thing that can create value in the most technical sense (something that we try our best to measure on a weekly basis).
Both Jalen Hurts and Jordan Love appear like they’re good to go for what feels like Wild Card Weekend’s crown jewel, but the line move from open not only seems like it should have been built on some more tangible news, but is drifting away from what would have been the betting market’s fair price, without any concern over a star quarterback’s health.
Packers @ Eagles (-5, 45.5)
An opening line of Eagles -3.5 made perfect sense to me. Prior to the Week 16 Eagles’ game at Washington, Philadelphia had seen their rating rise to season-high 73/100 in our estimated market rating system. Hurts was concussed, the Eagles played without him for the final two games, their rating was temporarily dropped with Kenny Pickett and Tanner McKee behind center, but Hurts is back and Philadelphia’s rating is restored.
The Packers couldn’t fully storm back to beat Minnesota (in either meeting) and they lost a close one in Detroit down the stretch, making them the odd team out in the NFC North, jettisoning them into the depths of the Wild Card seeding, but their team rating which made them the tiniest of underdogs against the Vikings in Week 17, and just a 3-point ‘dog at Detroit a month ago, should have them no worse than -3.5 at Philadelphia. Unless, of course, Love’s Week 18 injury is more serious than was first reported and the Packers’ rating needs to be dropped, thereby lengthening this point spread.
It’s also possible the betting market just wants to back the Eagles. Before the concussion, Hurts and his receivers answered the questions that no one but themselves were asking about the “passing” game, but are they a well-oiled machine all of a sudden?
The Packers’ defense will have something to say about that. It was seemingly forever ago, in literally another continent, but these teams have met already. In Week 1, we remember the Eagles as having won a shootout-style game, and Saquon Barkley started his monster season with a trio of touchdowns. However, the Packers’ defense actually held up on a per play basis, with 5.5 YPP overall and 3.8 yards per carry allowed. That was just the start of the impact that first-year defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has had on the Packers, who were third in rush yards allowed per carry (4.0), and have shown a modest improvement in pass defense.
Green Bay’s ability to cover, and perhaps win outright, will come down to whether they can hold the Eagles to field goals instead of touchdown when Philadelphia’s long, time-consuming drives get into the red zone. Of course, even last year’s version of the Packers’ defense went on the road in the playoffs and had success, holding an electric 49ers’ offense out of the red zone almost entirely. In goal-to-go situations, it can seem like the Eagles are trying to get the ball to the 2-yard line and not in the end zone.
Assuming Jordan Love’s healthy (and he’s off the injury report), there’s at least a point’s worth of value on the Packers, even in what should be the usual hostile, early-January environment at “the Linc.”
Pick: Packers (+5.5, -115 at DraftKings)
Jordan Love: Longest pass completion - Under 35.5 yards (-114 at FanDuel)
While he’ll take a shot with any of his receivers, Love’s favorite deep target, with the most top-end speed is Christian Watson, and he was lost for the season in Week 18. We discussed the Packers’ defensive resurgence this season, but no team has flipped their metrics more drastically than the Eagles, thanks to Vic Fangio getting the new pieces in the right places, forcing teams to throw the ball in front of their safeties.
For example, after allowing a long pass completion in the first two games of the season (Jayden Reed and Darnell Mooney), the Eagles allowed just two receptions of over 35 yards in their next 12. The Commanders’ caught Philly napping a couple of times in Week 16, and Malik Nabers made a ridiculous play against the Eagles in Week 18, but you can see how rarely Fangio’s group gets beat over the top.
Josh Jacobs: Over 69.5 rushing yards (-110 at Bet365)
Prior to a light-work Week 18, Jacobs had exactly 69 yards in his previous two games, so a tip of the cap to the betting market for this line. However, Jacobs wasn’t needed against the Saints and the Packers trailed big early in Minnesota. Had those games been played with a more normal script, we might be looking at a 9-4 record to the over for Jacobs before his 44 yards on just six carries in Chicago.
If we think this is a close game, where the Packers have to bring the level of toughness up front that they did in their road playoff games last season, then we should see a lot of a relatively fresh Jacobs for 60 minutes.
Dontavion Wicks: Over 3.5 receptions (-114 at FanDuel)
Let’s perform an exercise in logic.
Christian Watson is out
When Watson or Romeo Doubs are out, Wicks was the No. 3 receiver and played 77.6% of the offensive snaps
When Wicks plays more than 50% of the snaps, he’s targeted 6.86 times per game, and has caught 4+ passes in five of those seven games (71.4%)
That adds up to 27 of Wicks’ 39 receptions coming in seven games, compared to 12 in the other 10.
Saquon Barkley: Under 104.5 rushing yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Barkley had an epic season, but there were a handful of teams that were really strong against the run, and the Eagles only faced three of them.
One of them was the season-opener against the Packers (third in the NFL in YPC), where he crawled over this number with 109 yards on 24 carries in a game that had 12 drives that took less than 150 seconds off the clock, creating plenty of opportunities.
Late in the season, Barkley managed 107 yards against the Ravens, but only 65 against the Steelers in a game that only had nine drives apiece. With both defenses requiring their opponents to execute slow drives down the field, the clock should be moving. So, unless Barkley manages a huge run against a good run defense, going over 100 yards will be a challenge.
Jayden Reed: Anytime touchdown (+240, FanDuel)
Reed started the season priced around +200 to score, but after a run where he scored six times in 12 games, his anytime touchdown odds tightened up. Now Reed’s closed the season scoreless in the final five games, and Green Bay’s a rare underdog, so the odds here have lengthened for a player who the Packers draw up plays for near the goal line.
Luke Musgrave: Anytime touchdown (+1000, FanDuel)
Musgrave - once the more highly-touted of the Packers’ pair of young tight ends - missed much of the season, but he’s been back for three games, and one wonders if he’ll be used as a quasi-secret weapon in this game, since Tucker Kraft has emerged as such a prominent option from the tight end position. If Kraft is split out as part of three-receiver sets, Musgrave may be on the field a little more and could be a sneaky option near the goal line worth a half-unit bet. Which is quite a luxury, since he’s a player who was a second-round pick in 2023.
DeVonta Smith: Anytime touchdown (+200, FanDuel)
There was only six games this season where DeVonta Smith didn’t score a touchdown, and he might have been a cold drop at the end of the last Commanders game away from dropping that number down to five. Despite these facts, Smith has odds considerably longer than AJ Brown, who had fewer receptions and just eight more targets in his 13 games played this season.