The “RUMP”: Betting five NFL upsets for Week 5
Short ‘dogs the order of October’s first Sunday
We tried.
On a week where there wasn’t much in the way of upsets, we caught the big one with the Broncos shocking the Jets in a riveting 10-9 affair. Alas, little else.
The Giants, Jaguars, and Panthers all felt one play away, but a winning RUMP week would have required sprinkling short underdogs around our Broncos selection. Given that the Colts, Raiders, and, eventually, the Titans, weren’t even underdogs at the time when we settle on our live ‘dogs mid-week, the stars were never aligned.
The RUMP Week 4 answer-key:
Was there a path to RUMP victory last week?
Each week we reflect on who we should have taken, had we gotten the answers to the test beforehand.
Broncos +300
Commanders +155
Vikings +120
Colts +120
Raiders +120The second biggest underdog to win, the Commanders, go from being in a position of inclusion into the RUMP to a candidate to go against, as they’re favorites on a week where half the games have lines under a field goal.
For those new to the concept, we’ve coined the acronym RUMP for “Round-robin Underdog Moneyline Parlay.” In exchange for your (assumed) promise to bet everything else advised from THE WINDOW in single wagers, we cook up a NFL lottery ticket here. For more information on how it works and what to expect, check out the breakdown from Week 1.
How it works
Take 1.1 units and split that into 11 bets - one 5-team moneyline parlay and the 10 permutations of 3-team moneyline parlays that those five teams create. At most sportsbooks, you can simply add those five teams to a betting ticket and select 3-leg parlay (10x) to register your 0.1 unit bets. Three winners should do better than even money. Four wins connect four separate parlays and net an exciting return. When all five win? Say it with me - we’re diving into a gold doubloon silo like a young Scrooge McDuck!
Who to play
Panthers (+4, +165) over Bears
The first move after this game opened at Bears -3.5 was toward Chicago. Here’s why that makes sense:
The market’s been into the Bears since the summer time, and early covers against the Titans and Texans has maintained that interest.
Even after a loss in Indianapolis, the Bears were -3 against the Rams - a line that seemed optimistic, but Chicago covered, so there’s little reason for the market to be dissuaded
Maintaining a Bears’ market rating in the mid-40s and the Panthers’ rating in the mid-30s actually comes out to a point spread of -5.
Numbers-centric bettors saw that value on the Bears at -3.5 and bet it up to -4
However, we know the Bears got out-gained by the Rams last week, and though Carolina got back to their losing ways against the Bengals, the Panthers played Cincinnati evenly in the boxscore, continuing to show improvement with Andy Dalton at the helm (7th in offensive EPA/Play). Meanwhile, Caleb Williams and the Bears’ offense is still sputtering, outside of an out-of-nowhere big game from D’Andre Swift.
Bengals (+2.5, +125) over Ravens
Nothing changes (or solidifies) perception like a big result on a primetime game.
I’m old enough to remember when the Bengals and Ravens were bet to co-favorite in the AFC North this summer, with matching 10.5-win projections in the win-total market.
With 1.5 points for home-field advantage, two perceived-equal teams should result in the home team at -1.5, right?
Enough has happened - including a Ravens’ blowout win over the Bills on Sunday night - to shift the perception towards Baltimore being as good as advertised, while the Bengals were left for dead after losing six nights earlier to go 0-3. However, with a Cincinnati win this Sunday, these teams will be back to being tied - this time in the standings.
How will the Bengals pull that off, though?
Having their full complement of their offensive skill position players should help. In that Week 3 game with Washington, there was nothing wrong with the Bengals’ offense in Tee Higgins’ return. Cincinnati racked up 7.3 yards per play, following that with 6.0 YPP last week on the road. Those are better numbers than the Bengals produced even at the best of times last year.
Meanwhile, the defense needs to step it up. BJ Hill returned to practice on Wednesday, so having their top defensive tackle back will help the interior of the defense, while the return of Sheldon Rankins would be a bonus.
Like the Bengals, the Ravens started 0-2. Unlike Cincinnati, they played to the top of their range in beating up the Cowboys and overpowering the Bills to get back to even-par. Asking any team to play at a Super Bowl caliber-level is a lot for a third straight week. That’s what making them a favorite in Cincinnati is doing. Meanwhile, now’s the time to buy low on Joe Burrow and the Bengals in the hopes they’ve shook off another slow start.
Point spread target for single bet: Bengals +3 at -120 or better
Colts (+3, +130) over Jaguars
The Jaguars are a 3-point favorite despite going 0-for-September.
If that wasn’t reason enough to like the Colts’ chances - regardless of who starts at quarterback - reports surfaced that Doug Pederson has lost the locker room.
Pederson would later deny that he’s lost the locker room, which is exactly the kind of thing someone who’s lost the locker room would say.
With the worst defensive DVOA in the NFL, as much as the Jags’ offense has struggled, turning Trevor Lawrence around isn’t the only thing that needs fixing.
That seems like a “three-and-out” type of thing, so we’re punting on Jacksonville.
It’s still up in the air, but Joe Flacco getting the start for the Colts actually might be a positive turn, since he’s less likely to commit a reckless turnover. Either way, the vibes are higher for Indianapolis after back-to-back wins, even if the market hasn’t upgrading them despite a 3-1 record against the spread.
Giants (+6.5, +220) over Seahawks
The Seahawks’ offense played 78 snaps on Monday night, which is taxing for receivers running 56 routes, a tailback coming off an injury, and an offensive line that spent the night trying to pass block Aidan Hutchinson and company. Meanwhile, the defense had a lighter night by snaps, but that’s only because their second-stringers - forced into duty because of a rash of injuries - gave up yardage quickly and in big (7.8 YPP) increments.
The Giants are hoping Malik Nabers can make it through concussion protocol, and he would certainly help the cause, but having a rest-advantage should help the New York front-seven control the game in the same way they did when the Giants upset the Browns two weeks ago. At which point, only a modest offensive showing - devoid of the minor infractions that stopped them from beating the Cowboys - can provide just enough points to keep things interesting for New York, and maybe even win.
Point spread target for single bet: Track Nabers’ availability, bet +7 if he’s ruled out
Saints (+6, +210) over Chiefs
You may want to hold off until Monday to bet make a single bet on the spread for this game, as we’re shopping for Saints +6 at -115 or better (currently available at Pinnacle). Hopefully, that won’t matter and the Saints just win the game outright in a stadium Derek Carr’s been competitive in recently with lesser-talented teams.
In two of his last three seasons in Las Vegas, Carr and the Raiders went to Kansas City early in the season (before the annually turbulent franchise fell apart). In 2020, Carr had a 126.7 rating with three touchdowns to one interception in an 8-point win. In 2022, he had two touchdowns to no picks, for a 110.6 rating in a 1-point loss.
Carr never had a team in Oakland/Las Vegas as good as this one in New Orleans though. Through four games, the Saints are a surprising third in total DVOA. FTN’s advanced metric suggests New Orleans should have 2.6 wins, so they’ve been unlucky for that number to have been rounded down in real-life. Meanwhile, the 4-0 Chiefs, also have a DVOA projection of 2.6 wins. With these teams more evenly matched than the market thinks, and injuries piling up for Kansas City, the Saints are worth making our closer at +200 or better.
How the odds look this week:
Note: PLEASE find a sportsbook (Bet365, Betano, etc.) that offers an early payout for when a football team takes a 17-point lead. The last thing you want to have happen is to watch an underdog take a big early lead only to have it, and your potential big win, evaporate.