The “RUMP”: Betting five NFL upsets for Week 3

Looking at who can avoid the dreaded 0-3 start, and fading a team lucky to be 2-0

Sep 19, 2024

Week 2 was a frustrating one for us RUMP’ers (RUMPists? RUMPologists?).

Not because we went 2-3, just shy of a win, but because - unlike Week 1 - underdog glory was there for the taking.

Just look at the answer key for last week:

The RUMP Week 2 answer key:

Was there a path to RUMP victory last week? 
Each week we reflect on who we should have taken, had we gotten the answers to the test beforehand.

Raiders +350
Buccaneers +295
Saints +235
Vikings +180
Falcons +200

The Packers and Browns also won as 3-point underdogs.

Of course, we’d have to find sizeable cojones to include the Raiders, but with bets on the Buccaneers and Falcons against the spread, it’s a reminder that the point of this bet is that if we like an underdog by the betting line, it’s a good idea to throw a little bit on their moneyline as well, just in case.

For those new to the concept, we’ve coined the acronym RUMP for “Round-robin Underdog Moneyline Parlay.” In exchange for your (assumed) promise to bet everything else advised from THE WINDOW in single wagers, we cook up a NFL lottery ticket. For more information on how it works and what to expect, check out the breakdown from Week 1.

How it works

Take 1.1 units and split that into 11 bets - one 5-team parlay and the 10 permutations of 3-team parlays that those five teams create. At most sportsbooks, you can simply add those five teams to a betting ticket and select 3-leg parlay (10x) to register your 0.1 unit bets. Three winners should do better than break-even. Four wins connect four separate parlays and net an exciting return. When all five win? Say it with me - we’re diving into a gold doubloon silo like a young Scrooge McDuck!

Who to play

Giants (+235) over Browns

What? Because the Browns are impervious to being upset?

Cleveland’s 4.6 yards per play (YPP) in Jacksonville isn’t enough to strike fear in any hearts, after 3.3 YPP the week before at home against the Cowboys (who would give up 40+ points a week later to New Orleans).

Offensive tackles Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin could come back, but after a year away with each rehabbing knee injuries, I wouldn’t want to be backing them to immediately handle the strength of the Giants’ defense, a front-seven of Kayvon Thibodeaux, Brian Burns, and Dexter Lawrence.

The Giants at least have a plan on offense - throw it to Malik Nabers. Daniel Jones looked his way 18 times against the Commanders, as New York generated three touchdown drives but only scored 18 points because their kicker was lost for the game on the opening kickoff.

New York lost in Washington because they couldn’t stop the run, but the threat of Jayden Daniels helped open things up for Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler. Deshaun Watson no longer provides that same danger, and Jerome Ford nor D’Onta Foreman are on Robinson and Ekeler’s level. Even while giving up 200+ rushing yards, the Giants still held up in the red zone - a place the Browns have entered just three times in two games.

Panthers (+200) over Raiders

Yep, we’re back on Carolina, and to add some extra absurdity, we’re back on Andy Dalton - someone who’s reared his red head in this space (in its previous iteration) a time or two before.

Bryce Young mustered just 246 passing yards in two games that saw Carolina in almost exclusively a trailing game state, with three interceptions and six sacks. That’s almost impressive in its futility. There are no numbers from the first two games to support the Panthers in this game, but that’s the point - it can’t get worse (yes, I’ve said that before).

Sunday’s version has to be the best of the Panthers we’ll see all season, as the other 50+ professional football players on the team will be focused on proving that their horrendous start had more to do with Bryce Young than a complete organizational failure.

The Raiders looked like a reasonably facsimile to the Panthers in Week 1 - turning the ball over three times, missing a field goal, and only getting into the red zone once - but then somehow upset the Ravens despite rushing for just 1.6 yards per play. This is not an unbeatable group, as the Raiders’ wins under Antonio Pierce last season came against the following quarterbacks:

Tommy DeVito
Zach Wilson
Easton Stick
Jarret Stidham
Patrick Mahomes (two defensive Raiders touchdowns, 205 total yards on offense)

In his last season as a starter, Andy Dalton completed 67% of this passes and threw twice as many touchdowns as interceptions. In his lone start for Carolina last year, he threw for 361 yards and two touchdowns, without a pick. That’s 3-4 games worth of Young’s production.

Dalton will get the ball out in time, and to the proper places per Dave Canales’s offense. With that step up in production, the Panthers should be rejuvenated enough to have a chance to beat a poor Raiders’ team.

Rams (+275) over 49ers

The market has sold the Rams.

L.A.’s injury list is grim, with both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp out, as well as a handful of offensive linemen, but as long as Sean McVay has Matthew Stafford available to run the offense, I can’t get behind the idea that the Rams should be downgraded in the market the way they have. By comparison, they’re rated similarly to two seasons ago when Stafford was lost and John Wolford and mid-season acquisition, Baker Mayfield, were prominently involved.

The betting market for this game largely ignores the importance of the 49ers being without both Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel - two of the three most critical players on Kyle Shanahan’s offense (Trent Williams being the other). Throw in a slow start to the season for Brandon Aiyuk, and the weapons for Brock Purdy are thinning out. Defensively, outside of Fred Warner and Nick Bosa, playmakers are at a premium.

L.A.’s playing their first home game of the season, and the toll Week 1’s game took on the Rams was evident in getting blitzed in Arizona last week. I expect a bounce-back effort, with McVay and Stafford working around the offense’s shortcomings in talent.

Falcons (+150) over Chiefs

The alternative universe concept in the NFL is my favorite.

It’s easy to say that the Falcons were a pair of called run plays (possible Brotherly Shoves) away from being 0-2, and listening to big questions about what’s going on with their quarterback. However, the Falcons pulled off a miracle win in Philly and can focus on the good things they were doing before almost losing by three (or six).

The Falcons’ pass defense was strong, allowing 5.8 yards per pass attempt, a week after keeping the Steelers out of the end zone. While the offense ran the ball extremely well, and the O-line kept Cousins upright.

The Chiefs are 2-0, but are a toe and a 4th-and-16 pass interference away from 0-2, which might come with wonderings aloud about how Patrick Mahomes has as many touchdowns as interceptions.

Going on the road for the first time this season, without their top tailback, maybe the Chiefs don’t get away with playing a close game, against a team that might have found some belief late on Monday night, and one with more than enough weapons to cause trouble.

Jaguars (+200) over Bills

Maybe the Jaguars are the wildly inconsistent team this season. They were a fumble at the 1-yard line away from taking a 17-point, fourth quarter lead in Miami. That likely would have given Jacksonville a win awfully similar to the Bills’ win a few days later in the same stadium. In that Week 1 loss, the Jags looked like an AFC South division contender.

Last week? The exact opposite, as they couldn’t get out of their way against the Browns. Despite running for 6.0 yards per carry, Jacksonville scored just 13 points because they were 1-for-4 in the red zone.

Wild swings in performance and efficiency have been an issue for Trevor Lawrence, but that’s actually a good thing for bettors. It means the Jaguars, as a favorite, can lose to anyone, but can beat anyone they’re an underdog to.

If that sounds like anyone else in the NFL, I present to you, the Bills. Last year, Buffalo lost to the Jets, Patriots, and Broncos, as big favorites. They also beat the Cowboys handily, won in Kansas City and handled the Dolphins twice.

By now, you’ve seen the stats about the slim chances for an 0-3 team to make the playoffs, so Week 3 is far more crucial to those teams with high hopes than it is for everyone else. Just because you want to win doesn’t mean you get to, but at least the Jaguars have shown they’re capable of doing things well on both sides of the ball, and if they play their first 60-minute game of the season, Jacksonville can stun Buffalo on Monday night.

How the odds look this week:

Note: PLEASE find a sportsbook that offers an early payout for when a football team takes a 17-point lead. The last thing you want to have happen is to watch an underdog take a big early lead only to have it, and your potential big win, evaporate.