The “RUMP”: Betting five NFL upsets for Week 4
The NFL - where anything is possible?
Like everything in sports betting hindsight, it always feels like it could have been better.
Unfortunately, we don’t have a crystal ball, but we’ll happily accept our first winning RUMP of the year, adding roughly 2.5 units to our coffers, getting back into the green, paying for the first two weeks of our underdog gambit.
As the Week 3 answer key notes, there was even more to be won with the ideal combination of pups.
The RUMP Week 3 answer key:
Was there a path to RUMP victory last week?
Each week we reflect on who we should have taken, had we gotten the answers to the test beforehand.
Broncos +200
Giants +225
Panthers +200
Rams +275
Commanders +275
*The Vikings, Packers, and Eagles won as short underdogs as well. The Broncos and Commanders get wins on the road from rookie quarterbacks, reminding us not to throw out the NFL baby with the bath water. While it seems absurd to include all the underdogs of +200 or more, it just goes to show that nothing is too ridiculous in this league, as they went 5-0. Especially in September, as teams vacillate between good and bad on a week-to-week basis, and even the most vaunted offenses aren’t firing on all cylinders.
For those new to the concept, we’ve coined the acronym RUMP for “Round-robin Underdog Moneyline Parlay.” In exchange for your (assumed) promise to bet everything else advised from THE WINDOW in single wagers, we cook up a NFL lottery ticket. For more information on how it works and what to expect, check out the breakdown from Week 1.
How it works
Take 1.1 units and split that into 11 bets - one 5-team parlay and the 10 permutations of 3-team parlays that those five teams create. At most sportsbooks, you can simply add those five teams to a betting ticket and select 3-leg parlay (10x) to register your 0.1 unit bets. Three winners should do better than break-even. Four wins connect four separate parlays and net an exciting return. When all five win? Say it with me - we’re diving into a gold doubloon silo like a young Scrooge McDuck!
Who to play
Giants (+6, +200) over Cowboys
The Giants haven’t beaten the Cowboys in a game that didn’t prominently involve Andy Dalton since 2016, or 1-13 overall in the last seven years.
I don’t know if that run of dominance halts on Thursday night, but with where the vibes are for each team, and how this season has gone at large, why not?
We discuss why the Giants are the play as the underdog against the spread in the Thursday Night Football preview, and since these moneyline bets are a collection of teams that we like ATS, why not start the RUMP early, on a week where big underdogs are somewhat few and far between.
Panthers (+4, +170) over Bengals
Now that the Panthers are the beneficiaries of legitimate quarterback play (as much we took a shot at Dalton above, he’s clearly a considerable improvement on Bryce Young), what’s the ceiling in Carolina?
Each week, we look at where the betting market puts each team in the NFL, relative to the rest of the league in our Market Report. The Panthers have seen a minor bump in their rating, but it’s possible there’s more room to run. Meanwhile, the Bengals’ 0-3 should result in some sort of drop in their rating. Combining those two things projects a tighter spread than
The Bengals’ defense made Jayden Daniels look like he was back at LSU, throwing bombs and running all over Georgia State. While Cincinnati’s offense also scored seemingly at will, losing starting right tackle Trent Brown should be somewhat detrimental in their chances of hitting the same deep shots they executed against a suspect Commanders’ secondary who kept leaving overmatched corners on an island with Ja’Marr Chase.
A somewhat-high total of 47 for this game infers that the Panthers should be able to score, and if they Bengals are deflated by an 0-3 start, with a short week, an energized team waiting for them in Carolina could make matters worse.
Broncos (+7.5, +280) over Jets
The Jets got pretty chesty after beating the Jets in Denver last year, as a matter of revenge for their offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Now it’s the Broncos turn to defend the honor of Sean Payton.
Obviously, we’re looking at this in tongue-in-cheek fashion, but the Broncos should feel emboldened by last year’s game and last week’s win in Tampa Bay. Denver’s team rating in the betting market has ticked up a little, but if we’re sticking to our guns about a preseason opinion that the Broncos are better than a 35/100 (or a 6-win team), then this point spread should be tighter.
Mix in what the Jets’ Thursday-night win over the Patriots did for their perception, and you’ve got some value against the spread. If the Jets’ are bothered by the absence of right tackle Morgan Moses, going up against Denver’s 2nd-ranked pass-rush win rate, and Aaron Rodgers has a tough time connecting with Garrett Wilson - likely matched up with Patrick Surtain - then the Broncos will be live to win.
The Jets had their hands full with Will Levis’s mobility two weeks ago (four carries, 38 yards), and Bo Nix doubled his rushing attempts total in victory last week. With defensive organizer, C.J. Mosley, questionable to miss another game, there might be enough offense to stun the Jets a week after they were riding high.
Jaguars (+7, +240) over Texans
Yep, back on this bull$#*&.
We’re back on the Jaguars, openly questioning and appealing to their pride.
Jacksonville got blown out in Buffalo in front of the Monday night audience, going down 14-0 before they accrued a first down on offense.
That game situation and atmosphere proved overwhelming for Jacksonville, but this is their first divisional matchup, with a home game against the Colts next week, before heading off to England for a pair of winnable games. They can talk themselves into a 4-3 record (2-0 in the AFC South), but it needs to start with a win in Houston, something they managed last season - a week before things fell apart with Trevor Lawrence’s injury.
The Texans could be having their own crisis of confidence after getting rattled by the Vikings last week, after a shaky win against the Bears the week prior.
Jacksonville defensive coordinator, Ryan Nielsen, doesn’t seem to have the same bag of tricks as Brian Flores, but at least he’s expected to get Darnell Savage back from injury. That should help a secondary that had to get deep into the depth chart against the Bills when Jarrian Jones lasted just six snaps.
If I told you three weeks ago that the Jaguars would beat the Texans, you probably would have just shrugged. Now it seems insane, or is it crazy like a fox?
Patriots (+10, +430) over 49ers
The 49ers are going through it right now.
Maybe George Kittle comes back this week, but Brock Purdy’s getting MRI’s, Christian McCaffrey might be deep in the German blood-spinning scene, and Deebo Samuel’s doubtful for this week. Kyle Shanahan’s outlier skillset is taking talent and creatively using it to create an advantage over the opponent. If these key, multi-dimensional players are missing, the offense can look… just… regular. Purdy ends up having to scramble around uncomfortably, the playbook gets shortened, and you need things like “career game for Jajuan Jennings” to give you a lead.
You could do worse than having Nick Bosa and Fred Warner on your defense, but with Javon Kinlaw added to an injury list that still includes Dre Greenlaw and starting corner Ambry Thomas, things are getting thin on that side of the ball to, and you’re vulnerable to blowing that lead to a similarly-mangled Rams’ roster.
The Patriots don’t have the talent the Niners do, and have the shallowest of offensive gameplans. A short week gave them no time to come with anything special for the Jets and that game looked like what you’d expect from a vanilla roster and vanilla playbook. Ten days later and New England has had a ton of time to figure out a way to get into a grimy dog fight against much of the 49ers’ second-string.
Obviously, they’re not likely to pull off the upset, but you could say the same about all the other weekly longest shots on the board this season, who’ve gone 3-for-3. The 49ers’ run-block win rate is 31st in the NFL, and their run defense has been vulnerable. New England might get Purdy into uncomfortable down-and-distance, while also sustaining drives with their run game, and executing simple plays off of it. Thereby limiting drives on each side, force Niners’ field goals instead of touchdowns, and take advantage of a Purdy turnover.
How the odds look this week:
Note: PLEASE find a sportsbook that offers an early payout for when a football team takes a 17-point lead. The last thing you want to have happen is to watch an underdog take a big early lead only to have it, and your potential big win, evaporate.