The “RUMP”: Betting five NFL upsets for Week 2
Week 1 foes to back, Week 1 foes to fade, and a better situation for a rookie QB
The tantalizing element of Week 1 is that we’re supposed to not know so little about the teams that who really should be favored - and by how much - remains a mystery. In theory, that sets up for numerous upsets and value on the moneyline for underdogs.
Just three underdogs won last week.
The RUMP answer key:
Was there a path to RUMP victory last week?
Each week we’ll reflect on who we should have taken, had we gotten the answers to the test beforehand.
Patriots +280
Steelers +150
Cowboys +110
*Titans +160
*Took a 17-point lead, earning early payout offers at certain sportsbooks.So, “what” is Week 2?
It’s supposed to be the first of a couple “overreaction” weeks, where results from Week 1 change the perception of roughly half the NFL’s teams. Deciphering which teams are who we thought they were and not who they were in their opener, is the exercise in finding value - both in favorites and underdogs.
Of course, this is the place for lining up those underdogs, hoping that the early optimism of “17-3 Cardinals,” “17-0 Titans” and “20-10 Jaguars” from last week, translates to the realization of victory this week.
For those new to the concept, we’ve coined the acronym RUMP for “Round-robin Underdog Moneyline Parlay.” In exchange for your (assumed) promise to bet everything else advised from THE WINDOW in single wagers, we cook up a NFL lottery ticket. For more information on how it works and what to expect, check out the breakdown from Week 1.
How it works
Take 1.1 units and split that into 11 bets - one 5-team parlay and the 10 permutations of 3-team parlays that those five teams create. At most sportsbooks, you can simply add those five teams to a betting ticket and select 3-leg parlay (10x) to register your 0.1 unit bets. Three winners should do better than break-even. Four wins connect four separate parlays and net an exciting return. When all five win? Say it with me - we’re diving into a gold doubloon silo like a young Scrooge McDuck!
Who to play
Panthers (+210) over Chargers
If you didn’t think the RUMP gets grotesque, you definitely are new.
The Panthers went from “Maybe they could be a dark horse to win a bad division” to “My eyes! My God, my eyes!” in one game.
In the span of seconds, Derek Carr converted a 3rd-and-4 with a hand in his face for a 59-yard touchdown and Bryce Young threw an interception. After a 57-yard field goal, it was 10-0. There’s no defending what happened next as Carolina went into halftime down 30-3, allowing the Saints to freely blitz Bryce Young (defensive back Alondrae Taylor had three sacks!) with little risk of getting burned.
However, embarrassment is a pro athlete’s greatest motivator. Prideful players and coaches focus harder on preparation during the week, and any passion lacked last week returns the next time out.
For their home opener, the Panthers were supposed to be field goal underdogs to the Chargers. However, L.A. won their game 22-10, doing so thanks to a series of Raiders’ gaffes (fumbles, missed field goals, etc.), and despite a yardage count of 316-296. 176 of those yards came via L.A.’s run game (on two long carries by JK Dobbins). Will that work in Carolina? It helps L.A. that the worst part about the trip to New Orleans is that the Panthers lost star defensive tackle Derrick Brown for the season, but much of the Saints’ run success came from Alvin Kamara on outside runs, and the change-up of Taysom Hill. The Bolts’ run game is more straight forward.
With the point spread stretched out to -6, and the moneyline longer than +200, the value play is on the Panthers, even if it doesn’t feel good (it rarely will).
Saints (+235) over Cowboys
The Saints should get some credit for waxing the Panthers. All three of Carr’s touchdowns could have been foiled if they weren’t perfect throws. Maybe that’s not replicable on the road against the Cowboys, but Dallas saw their rating in the market get a big bump for dominating Cleveland - shaky Deshaun Watson behind backup tackles and without their best tailback.
The Saints might be a better-than-average team. They’re definitely trying to be, refusing to start a rebuild even though we may think it’s getting stale in the Big Easy. Even after dismantling the Panthers, they’re still being considered a below-average outfit, based on this point spread touching seven points earlier in the week.
Memorably, Carr saw the Cowboys’ (though coordinated by a different staff) defense on Thanksgiving 2021, and played one of his best games as a Raider. With all the Saints’ weapons healthy, including a particularly spry Alvin Kamara, they could pull off an upset in ‘Big D’.
Titans (+155) over Jets
While you hear about how badly Caleb Williams looked in his debut, I’m thinking the Titans’ defense should get some credit for holding Chicago to 148 total yards.
The Jets are still being held with the regard of a good team, which is giving them quite a benefit of the doubt after being down 32-13 (the Panthers’ trailed 37-10 at through the same amount of time in their game), and allowing 400+ yards and eight scoring drives on Monday night.
If the common line out of New York is that “we’ll get things figured out with time,” a short week that includes travel back from the Bay Area and then down to Tennessee, that doesn’t leave much room to iron things out.
Will Levis’s decision-making is a problem, but his mobility (four carries for 36 yards) will be a weapon in getting the ball to the outside of the Jets’ defense, which was vulnerable to repeated “C-Gap!” (Bill Belichick quote) runs. Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears can run those same off-tackle plays and New York will be kept honest by Levis’s ability to keep-and-go.
I expect the Titans to keep the Jets’ run game in first gear, leaving the game on the arm of Aaron Rodgers, something he’s not ready for, at a stage in his career amidst an epic 300-yard game drought.
Vikings (+210) over 49ers
The 49ers have the same short week as the Jets, and have to prepare for the various schemes and blitzes that Brian Flores is going to send Brock Purdy’s way. Last year’s trip to Minnesota resulted in the worst game of Purdy’s career that didn’t involve peak Cleveland conditions or the Ravens’ defense.
We may look back at it - now or later - and say “It was the Giants,” but it’s the lone data point we have, and Sam Darnold seemed to fit into Kevin O’Connell’s offense in the same way Kirk Cousins was able to, which eventually tweaked the public perception of him.
The 49ers’ rating rightfully got a boost from Monday night’s win, but the Vikings are still a buy-low. San Francisco backers will reference the absence of Deebo Samuel in the Vikings’ win last year, but Minnesota did it without Justin Jefferson. There’s no one in the Niners’ secondary that can match up with him and Jordan Addison, and the Minnesota O-line can keep pressure off Darnold enough to execute O’Connell’s plays, giving the Vikings a chance to win.
Broncos (+125) over Steelers
With our first four games happening in a particularly populous early afternoon window, we’ll hope to find at least two winners to setup a synthetic moneyline bet on the Broncos at better than +125. I think Denver should be considered a pick’em (if not the favorite) at home against the Steelers, who are still waiting for their first touchdown this season.
Up until recently, backing the Broncos at home early in the season was a solid angle each year, with teams not used to the thin air at Mile High, but the arrival of Russell Wilson in 2022 and Sean Payton in 2023 overrated the Broncos. This edition of the team is rated among the league’s worst, which is why Pittsburgh’s considered the favorite here.
When it comes to getting play calls and timely snaps, it should be a night-and-day environment change for Bo Nix, going from the road noise of Seattle in his debut to a more serene home crowd (though Steelers’ fans do travel).
The Broncos’ offensive line is their strength, and we’ll bank on Garrett Bolles being able to play, but I expect Payton to use Nix’s mobility to take some of the starch out of the Steelers’ pass rush.
85 of Justin Fields’ 156 passing yards last week came on throws to George Pickens, who should see a heavy dose of Patrick Surtain this week. While Fields’ best game as a passer came against the Broncos last year, it came against the early-season edition of Denver’s stop-unit - a mess that had just given up 70 points in Miami. That group held up well against what I expect to be a good Seahawks’ offense, and should shut down Pittsburgh, who play their second straight road game to start the season.
How the odds look this week:
Note: PLEASE find a sportsbook that offers an early payout for when a football team takes a 17-point lead. The last thing you want to have happen is to watch an underdog take a big early lead only to have it, and your potential big win, evaporate.