The “RUMP”: Betting five NFL upsets for Week 13

Poorly rated teams look to be live problems for mediocre favorites

Nov 28, 2024

Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.

In Week 11, there were three underdogs to be found and we found them.

In Week 12, there were three underdogs to be found and we ALMOST found them all. Not only that, one of our ‘dogs went to overtime in miraculous fashion, but ultimately fell short.

All in all, we remain on the right track when it comes to sussing out the value in the flea-bitten teams, even at a time of the season where the pups can be hard to come by.

The RUMP Week 12 answer-key:

Was there a path to RUMP victory last week? 
Each week we reflect on who we should have taken, had we gotten the answers to the test beforehand.

Browns (+170)
Cowboys (+400)
Titans (+300)

The Cowboys’ win over the Commanders fell directly into the category of a team getting upset who likely had no business being a favorite by that much, regardless of how bad the underdog looks going into that week.

For those new to the concept, we’ve coined the acronym RUMP for “Round-robin Underdog Moneyline Parlay.” In exchange for your (assumed) promise to bet everything else advised from THE WINDOW in single wagers, we cook up a NFL lottery ticket here. For more information on how it works and what to expect, check out the breakdown from Week 1.

How it works

Take 1.1 units and split that into 11 bets - one 5-team moneyline parlay and the 10 permutations of 3-team moneyline parlays that those five teams create. At most sportsbooks, you can simply add those five teams to a betting ticket and select 3-leg parlay (10x) to register your 0.1 unit bets. Three winners should do better than even money. Four wins connect four separate parlays and net an exciting return. When all five win? Say it with me - we’re diving into a gold doubloon silo like a young Scrooge McDuck!

Who to play

As always, these are five underdogs we like against the spread. Based on a pet peeve - our underdogs performing so well they win outright, we use their moneylines to make up an extra bet, hoping the five ATS games will more than make up for losing the RUMP if three or more fall short of victory.

Cardinals (+150) over Vikings

(ATS bet: Cardinals +3.5, -115 at FanDuel)

Last week’s game at Seattle never set up well for Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. Arizona’s estimated market rating (EMR) was at a season-high as they came out of their bye with a winning streak, but a game against an evolving Seahawks’ defense seemed like their biggest challenge of the season, and it was. Understanding that ahead of time, means that we shouldn’t hold it against the Cardinals when that scenario plays out to fruition.

This week, the Cardinals have a better chance at competing, but the bar for covering the point spread is lower, with their rating has dipped back into a reasonable expectation. On the field, Murray’s been one of the best quarterbacks at burning the opponent’s blitz, and the Cardinals’ offense goes from taking on a more traditional unit to Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy group.

The Vikings’ offense is showing signs of cracking. They found their way into the red zone seven times against Chicago, scoring three touchdowns and settling for two field goals, but that was an improvement on Sam Darnold’s struggles of the previous few weeks. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ defense has improved to 8th in the NFL in opponent’s red zone rate, allowing teams to score a touchdown on just 16% of their trips against Arizona.

Jonathan Gannon’s group is devoid of star power, but they can cause problems for Darnold, limiting the Vikings to three instead of seven points, and if Murray can have success against Flores’s blitz, the Cardinals can win in Minnesota.

Patriots (+130) over Colts

(ATS bet: Patriots +3, -120 at Bet365/BetRivers)

Until the Patriots get better guidance from the head coach, or Drake Maye can take the team on his shoulders, New England will likely be outmatched by teams with more talent, on the road. That was the case last week in Miami, as they were unprepared for the quick release of Tua Tagovailoa.

This is a different type of matchup though, against a team that was getting four points at the Jets two weeks, but is now a road favorite in Foxborough.

Are the Patriots 6-7 points worse than New York?

Having gotten burned by Matthew Stafford and Tagovailoa, the Patriots get to take on the Colts’ ground-and-pound attack, as Indianapolis hopes Anthony Richardson hits the passes he completed against the Jets, but couldn’t against the Lions. With the high-variance element that comes with playing Richardson, Indianapolis is worth a look as an underdog, but as a road favorite, they’re a fade.

Titans (+210) over Commanders

(ATS bet: Titans +5.5, -108 at DraftKings)

Speaking of high variance, your Tennessee Titans!

This offseason, the Titans said publicly that they’d deploy a deep-passing attack with Will Levis, and while it took longer than they’d hoped, here we are.

Since returning from his shoulder injury, Levis has connected on passes of 41 (Calvin Ridley), 98 (Nick Westbrook-Ikhine), 33 (Bryce Oliver), 30 (Tyler Boyd), 70 (Chig Okonkwo), 63 (Ridley), and 38 (Westbrook-Ikhine) yards. That’s seven passes of 30+ yards in three games.

By contrast, Jayden Daniels has found success with deep passes, right? He’s had 12 completions of 30+ yards all season.

As we thought was possible in this space last week, the Titans shut down Joe Mixon on the ground in their upset of the Texans, in keeping with the good defense they’ve shown all season. While Daniels’ legs were revived last week, if the Titans remain disciplined, the Commanders will likely continue to struggle in non-desperation mode.

Panthers (+210) over Buccaneers

(ATS bet: Panthers +6, -110 at Bet365)

The Buccaneers got the red carpet rolled out for them after their bye week, taking on a dead Giants’ group with little offensive capability and a defense that knew it.

All of a sudden, the Panthers are at least functioning on offense, as they have shifted the personnel around Bryce Young, and his confidence has come along with it, handling the Chiefs’ blitzes with aplomb last week.

The Panthers’ market rating hasn’t really changed, since you can compare this game’s spread to visits to Carolina by the Chargers, Bengals, and Falcons, but if they’re only respectably bad down the stretch there may be consistent value in holding your nose with a bet on the Panthers regularly going forward.

Neither group can stop the run (both allowing 4.7 yards per carry), so this game may come down to which runners break more sizeable gains, and it wouldn’t be shocking if the Buccaneers fell into the category of teams who have “no business being a big road favorite,” even if it worked out OK against New York last week.

49ers (+255) over Bills

(ATS bet: 49ers +7, -114 at DraftKings)

It’s weird to have to make the case for the 49ers as a big underdog, but here we are.

Even without Nick Bosa, San Francisco held the Packers to just 4.9 yards play in Green Bay, and for someone who hadn’t thrown more than three passes since a Week 18 start in 2021, Brandon Allen didn’t look terrible.

Naturally, the hope is that Brock Purdy is able to play, and if so, expect this line drop to around -3.5, especially if Trent Williams is also able to go as well.

There’s no inside information on whether these stars actually play, but maybe their availability is informed by things getting desperate for San Francisco, as a 5-7 record would put them right on the brink of elimination.

Kyle Shanahan and company should have the kitchen sink ready to go, and the Niners’ offense should be a little more prepared for life without Purdy, giving them a puncher’s chance against a Bills team that went into the bye riding high after beating the Chiefs. Throw in the potential for heavy snow, and the variance that brings to the mix, and the 49ers might pull of a season-saver.