The “RUMP”: Betting five NFL upsets for Week 7

Round-robin underdog moneyline parlay, a football-betting lottery ticket

Oct 17, 2024

Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.

I’m old enough to remember when you could dine out on home underdogs in the NFL. Of course, we all are. It was just a few weeks ago. Even road underdogs were cashing at an alarming rate too.

Not in Week 6, where road favorites went 9-0.

Since it’s only 1.1 units lost, no real underdogs winning means we didn’t miss out on anything special. However, none of them covered either. Brutal.

Those types of results can quickly make you forget that upsets happen all the time in the NFL, but we have to keep in mind that we could go right back to the chaos the NFL is known for, the very next Sunday.

The RUMP Week 6 answer-key:

Was there a path to RUMP victory last week? 
Each week we reflect on who we should have taken, had we gotten the answers to the test beforehand.

No. There was no path to victory. The Colts won at +125 and the Bears closed around even-money. That’s it. That’s the list of “underdog” winners. Lame, I know.

We were somewhat prophetic last week, not in the picks, of course, but in saying that upsets seem more improbable now that we’re into the heart of the season. However, there are a few big perception shifts based on the first handful of games, and even bigger reactions to recent results. Not to mention teams that have already realized they hate it here. All of which create some added value on some ugly underdogs this week.

For those new to the concept, we’ve coined the acronym RUMP for “Round-robin Underdog Moneyline Parlay.” In exchange for your (assumed) promise to bet everything else advised from THE WINDOW in single wagers, we cook up a NFL lottery ticket here. For more information on how it works and what to expect, check out the breakdown from Week 1.

How it works

Take 1.1 units and split that into 11 bets - one 5-team moneyline parlay and the 10 permutations of 3-team moneyline parlays that those five teams create. At most sportsbooks, you can simply add those five teams to a betting ticket and select 3-leg parlay (10x) to register your 0.1 unit bets. Three winners should do better than even money. Four wins connect four separate parlays and net an exciting return. When all five win? Say it with me - we’re diving into a gold doubloon silo like a young Scrooge McDuck!

Who to play

As always, these are five underdogs we like against the spread. Based on a pet peeve - our underdogs performing so well they win outright, we use their moneylines to make up an extra bet, hoping the five ATS games will more than make up for losing the RUMP if three or more fall short of victory.

Patriots (+205) over Jaguars

(ATS bet: Patriots +6, -115 at Pinnacle)

I googled for a transcription of Doug Pederson’s halftime interview from last week’s game and, while I couldn’t find it and don’t have time to do it myself, you can’t believe the sad headlines that pop up when you search for anything he’s said recently. Going back to being 0-3, it’s a series of bummed-out quotes surrounding denials that he’s lost the locker room.

Now that the Jaguars are 1-5 and Pederson’s quotes now softly hope for pride in playing out the string, I highly doubt a week in London has made things better for a team that didn’t seem all that interested in competing when they were 1-4.

The Patriots’ offense improved last week, and DeMario Douglas was quoted as saying he’d run through a wall for Drake Maye.

Whoa.

Am I to believe the vibes are THAT high after a 20-point loss for the Patriots? Ok!

We’re at a point in the season where there isn’t much statistical evidence to get us as fired up as Douglas is, but wouldn’t we feel like fools if the Patriots beat a lifeless Jags team and we weren’t on it?

Titans (+350) over Bills

(ATS bet: Shopping for Titans +10 at -120 or better)

I’m not sure either of the teams we saw on Monday night are particularly good, and both the Jets and Bills thought enough of their current state that they needed to trade for a veteran star receiver immediately.

If what ails the Bills’ offense isn’t immediately cured, then a near-double-digit spread is asking a lot for Buffalo to cover against a Titans’ defense that’s actually pretty good - rated 9th in FTN’s DVOA - for a 1-4 team. In fact, they lead the league in yards allowed per game.

Coming off their bye, Tennessee let one slip against the Colts, after an 8-minute touchdown drive gave them a 7-point lead through three quarters. It was the third game of the Titans’ season that could have gone either way. With a different record, their rating might be better than a below-average team, and this spread would be shorter.

Much of the reason the Titans aren’t 4-1 instead of 1-4, is because of Will Levis’ catastrophic mistakes. Tennessee is next-to-last in the league in turnover margin, while the Bills are second in the league in that category. If Levis can avoid a disaster play, and not lose the turnover battle, that will considerably level the playing field, giving the Titans a chance to win.

Browns (+210) over Bengals

(ATS bet: +6, -112 at DraftKings)

We’ve largely avoided the train wreck that has been Deshaun Watson and the Browns this season, but it’s time to buy at what we hope is the low-point for Cleveland in the market.

Who’s a more important running back to his team than Nick Chubb? It helps that an offensive line who spent the first part of the season waiting to get their injured tackles back and up to speed, lately seems to be opening holes for mediocre tailbacks to run for better than four yards per carry the last two games. Even on a potential pitch count, if Chubb can be a bigger threat for explosiveness in the run game, Watson might be at least serviceable - the way he was before Chubb got hurt, particularly late in 2022.

The Bengals were -4 at Carolina, so this line makes the Browns 2.5 point worse than the Panthers. Maybe they are, but Cincinnati hasn’t shown enough to prove they’re a team worthy of being favored by close to a converted touchdown on the road against anyone. Sunday’s close win in New York shouldn’t engender a rating upgrade, and, if anything, showed they’re capable of an offensive drought and being upset.

Dolphins (+140) over Colts

(ATS bet: Dolphins +3 at Bet365)

The Dolphins showed some heart but little else in beating New England before the bye week, but with extra time to get Tyler Huntley up on a few more pages of the playbook, this is a challenge to Mike McDaniel to prove he has the chops to be a legitimate head coach when things aren’t going perfectly.

The Colts’ defense is not particularly good, and more importantly defensive coordinator Gus Bradley is committed to his cover-3 zone, making it relatively basic for the Dolphins to get prepared for. Unbelievably, a win keeps Miami within striking distance in the AFC East, and with some reports that Tua Tagovailoa could be back for Week 8, this is a pivotal game to get up for.

We saw on Sunday that the market didn’t think it mattered that Joe Flacco played instead of Anthony Richardson - who was ruled out late as a game-time decision. I have to believe that it does, and not in favor of the Colts’ young quarterback. Given how close Richardson was to playing last week, you have to assume he’ll be good to go this week. The original opener of -3.5 has already been bet down - an indication we’re on the right track in sniffing out a potential upset.

Buccaneers (+165) over Ravens

(ATS bet: Buccaneers +3.5, widely available at -110)

The Ravens - who’ve occasionally lost focus every few games in the past - have been locked in on what was billed as a season-saving win in Dallas, a showdown blowout of the Bills at home on a Sunday night, a big comeback win in Cincinnati and a DMV grudge match with the red-hot Commanders. Playing at the high end of their range for that many games expends energy.

The Buccaneers were a first down away from a win in Atlanta that would makeo them 5-1 as well. A Week 3 loss to Denver came without Vita Vea, Antoine Winfield and Calijah Kancey, all available on Monday to try to slow Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and the Ravens’ top-rated offense by DVOA. Todd Bowles’ defense won’t be overmatched physically the way the Bills were, and their offense can move the ball just as easily as the Bengals and (at times) the Commanders did.

Baker Mayfield’s found a rejuvenated Chris Godwin, joining omnipresent touchdown-target Mike Evans as significant dangers for their opponents, along with a trio of capable of running backs. Assumptions were that the Bucs were going to take a step back this season, but, at home on Monday night, they have a chance to prove they’re taking a step forward as a contender.

How the odds look this week:

Note: PLEASE find a sportsbook (Bet365, Betano, etc.) that offers an early payout for when a football team takes a 17-point lead. The last thing you want to have happen is to watch an underdog take a big early lead only to have it, and your potential big win, evaporate.