The “RUMP”: Betting five NFL upsets for Week 15

Measuring market moves toward a pair of underdogs and primetime upset potential

Dec 12, 2024

Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.

I don’t consider myself all that optimistic, in general, but at halftime of the 1pm (ET) games on Sunday, I thought, “today might be the day.”

The Browns were a professional placekicker away from being tied with the Steelers, while the Jets, Falcons, and Raiders were within one score of their opponents on the road. Since we know that having an early lead is traditionally a death-knell before the NFL’s famed “witching hour,” who could blame anyone for thinking that these close games were set up for a wild finish? Plus, with the allegedly dead 49ers already seeing their implied win probability drop in the form of getting bet to a shortened moneyline, maybe, just maybe, this was the day it all comes together for NFL underdogs.

Of course, the “wackiness” that came was in the form of the favorites pulling away late in Tampa, Minnesota, and Pittsburgh, while the Jets were the ones to actually take a solid lead, only to allow it to disappear into overtime defeat.

Oh, and then the Bears showed up in the Bay Area, and hung four total first-half yards on the Niners.

The RUMP Week 14 answer-key:

Was there a path to RUMP victory last week? 
Each week we reflect on who we should have taken, had we gotten the answers to the test beforehand.

Jaguars (+150)
Seahawks (+130)
Rams (+170)

That’s a sad path.

Undaunted (ok, maybe a little daunted), we push on, hoping the ‘dogs have their day, with a full slate of 16 games to choose from, there has to be a few pups with some scrap left in them!

For those new to the concept, we’ve coined the acronym RUMP for “Round-robin Underdog Moneyline Parlay.” In exchange for your (assumed) promise to bet everything else advised from THE WINDOW in single wagers, we cook up a NFL lottery ticket here. For more information on how it works and what to expect, check out the breakdown from Week 1.

How it works

Take 1.1 units and split that into 11 bets - one 5-team moneyline parlay and the 10 permutations of 3-team moneyline parlays that those five teams create. At most sportsbooks, you can simply add those five teams to a betting ticket and select 3-leg parlay (10x) to register your 0.1 unit bets. Three winners should do better than even money. Four wins connect four separate parlays and net an exciting return. When all five win? Say it with me - we’re diving into a gold doubloon silo like a young Scrooge McDuck!

Who to play

As always, these are five underdogs we like against the spread. Based on a pet peeve - our underdogs performing so well they win outright, we use their moneylines to make up an extra bet, hoping the five ATS games will more than make up for losing the RUMP if three or more fall short of victory.

Browns (+180) over Chiefs

(ATS bet: Browns +4, -108 at DraftKings)

Admittedly, I was surprised to see just how much the betting market likes the Browns in this game, even after Kansas City failed to cover for the seventh straight game - a profoundly unbelievable streak for a team that’s 6-1 straight-up in that time and 12-1 on the season. That was the case on Monday, though.

According to the “Odds History” on the Action Network, at 11:30am (ET), the Chiefs were -6.5, and by 6:30pm, the line was down to -4.

No injury news. No real reason to be into Browns after they lost by 13 to the Steelers. Presumably, just a pure fade of Kansas City’s chances of covering.

Hand up - 🙋‍♂️: I was in that mix, betting on the Browns at the initial number

I’m not sure I’m looking to add to my position at the current spread, but if we’re looking for five underdogs that can win outright this week, one that’s taken enough interest to move the line that drastically is as good a candidate as any.

A week after out-gaining the Broncos, Cleveland out-gained Pittsburgh, holding the Steelers to just 267 total yards, something the betting market usually thinks is a more sustainable indicator than the Browns’ three turnovers.

How could that be? Well, a week prior to that good showing on defense, the Browns’ offense racked up 500 yards in Denver. Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ defense has turned the opposition over at the third-lowest rate in the NFL (0.8), a likely indicator of why all their games are so close, and why this one might be too.

It would be perfectly fitting for Cleveland, and this NFL season as a whole, if the (potentially) 4-win Browns had victories over contenders like the Steelers, Ravens, and Chiefs.

Patriots (+220) over Cardinals

(ATS bet: Patriots +6.5, -115 at FanDuel)

This game’s going one of two ways:

The point spread falling to -5.5 (from -7) is an overreaction to the Cardinals 3-game losing streak, and Arizona wins comfortably against a JV squad coming to town, paying off for those who bet back on Arizona
The early action on New England - still deemed up-and-coming with Drake Maye - off their bye, is an indicator that the Patriots (who may have a larger percentage of the Arizona crowd) may beat a team whose playoff chances have been whittled down to +600 long shots in the betting market.

A Week 14 bye is likely daunting when a player/coach sees it on the schedule, but for the teams that have survived 13 straight NFL games, it’s probably more positively affecting than at any other point.

With a week of rest, and the prospect of closing the season against the Bills (twice) and Chargers, this is the last best chance for a fourth win for New England, who largely outplayed the Colts before their week off.

Since their own bye week, the Cardinals’ offensive yards per play numbers have dropped, as has their forced-turnover rate - trends that suggest the Patriots should be in this game late.

Steelers (+210) over Eagles

(ATS bet: Steelers +5.5, -112 at DraftKings)

How much convincing do we really need here?

The Steelers have been underrated in the betting market all season, and have excelled in this specific role, as four of their wins during their 7-1 stretch have cashed as underdogs. While we estimate their market rating as high as it’s been all season, they’ve at least earned it.

Meanwhile, the Eagles are coming off their ninth-straight win, but last week’s game was an interesting case study in odds-making and market reaction.

The Eagles opened around 12-point favorites against the Panthers, but based on how both teams had been recently rated, that line was actually short. It felt like oddsmakers were predicting that Philadelphia would play to the low-end of their capability, or “range.” The betting market thought it saw an inefficiency and the Eagles were bet up to -14, only to not come close to covering in their 6-point win.

Whether that close call was due to the scheduling spot (between games against regional rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh) or was simply a more accurate representation of the Eagles’ overall quality is up for debate, but being lined as a 5-point favorite over the Steelers puts Philadelphia at their highest rating of the season, creating value on the ‘dog yet again.

Seahawks (+125) over Packers

(ATS bet: Seahawks +2.5, -105 at DraftKings)

What more do the Seahawks need to prove to the betting market?

After their Week 10 bye:

Week 11 - Win as 6-point underdogs at San Francisco
Week 12 - Win as 1-point underdogs at home to the Cardinals
Week 13 - Win as 1.5-point underdogs at New York Jets
Week 14 - Win as 3-point underdogs at Arizona

So what’s changed in Seattle?

A defensive front rotation that was as short as four-deep early in the season now has nine healthy assets with last week’s return of Uchenna Nwosu.
The midseason trade for Ernest Jones IV has paid dividends, as he hasn’t missed a snap in six games, while rookie fourth-round pick, Tyrice Knight, has developed nicely
The starting secondary - Riq Woolen, Devon Witherspoon, Julian Love, and Coby Bryant - have missed a total of five snaps since the bye week

On offense, the line has gotten similarly healthy - allowing fewer sacks and creating better running lanes. Meanwhile, getting DK Metcalf has helped keep the heat off Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who’s finally popping off statistically.

Given this information, Mike Macdonald’s ability to put the defenders in the right places, and Geno Smith’s safe distribution of the ball, Seattle needs to be considered at or near the level of the Packers.

That’s a tall task, though. Since we know from last week’s line for Green Bay’s game in Detroit, that the market thinks highly enough of the Packers to put them within a couple of points of the Lions. We can’t declare Green Bay overrated just yet, but the market’s already taken this game’s point spread off of three, perhaps coming around on the Seahawks.

That’s a start, for a game that should probably be a pick’em, and therefore, offers up a valuable moneyline bet at +125 in Seattle on Sunday night.

Raiders (+175) over Falcons

(ATS bet: Raiders +4, -110 at Bet365)

Aidan O’Connell’s “hoping to get there” for the Monday-nighter in Las Vegas, and we’re hoping he gets there too.

Having an extra day to prepare is helpful, but it also means the usually critical Friday practice won’t happen until Saturday, so we won’t have a better idea about his availability until then. However, the Raiders have shown a propensity for stepping up when they know the whole NFL world is watching, beating the Jets, Chargers (by a million), and Chiefs last year in standalone games, and nearly catching Kansas City again two weeks ago on Black Friday.

While they technically have to share the spotlight this Monday night, this is the last big game of the year for the Raiders, and they should feel like they can beat a Falcons’ team that’s reeling and almost as uncertain about what their getting out of the quarterback position.

Even if Desmond Ridder starts for the Raiders, it’s worth noting that he never had a 4-game stretch as bad as Kirk Cousins’ eight interceptions (sans-touchdown pass) during a Falcons’ losing streak that has their chances for the NFC South sinking. Despite playing no better than a team LIKE the Raiders, the Falcons are road favorites, needing to drastically turn around the recent form of their quarterback.

The thing that’s prevented the Raiders from winning any of their games since September is that they’re league-worst at creating turnovers. With the foremost (recent) leader in interceptions (who’s also fumbled five times without losing one yet) coming to town, the Raiders might be able to buck that trend, potentially starting a string of winnable games to close the season.