The “RUMP”: Betting five NFL upsets for Week 11

Steelers stay in first, Jets and Rams lose again?

Nov 14, 2024

Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.

It started with the Bengals losing a coin-flip game as a big underdog to the Ravens on Thursday night, which would have been the icing on the cake on a profitable evening. I guess the silver-lining is that when the Broncos lined up for a game-winning, 35-yard field goal - the type of kick made over 90% of the time - it wasn’t to connect the Bengals-Saints-Broncos portion of the Week 10 RUMP. At least we were on the right track in seeking out underdog value, with the type of reads that portends long-term success, and a winning 3-2 ATS cohort.

The RUMP Week 10 answer-key:

Was there a path to RUMP victory last week? 
Each week we reflect on who we should have taken, had we gotten the answers to the test beforehand.

Panthers (+245)
Patriots (+240)
Saints (+160)
Cardinals (+110)
Dolphins (+120)

To be fair, the Cardinals weren’t even underdogs when we posted the RUMP last week, but yes, I am annoyed I didn’t just bet the Panthers and Patriots, because who are the Giants and Bears to be favored by that many?

For those new to the concept, we’ve coined the acronym RUMP for “Round-robin Underdog Moneyline Parlay.” In exchange for your (assumed) promise to bet everything else advised from THE WINDOW in single wagers, we cook up a NFL lottery ticket here. For more information on how it works and what to expect, check out the breakdown from Week 1.

How it works

Take 1.1 units and split that into 11 bets - one 5-team moneyline parlay and the 10 permutations of 3-team moneyline parlays that those five teams create. At most sportsbooks, you can simply add those five teams to a betting ticket and select 3-leg parlay (10x) to register your 0.1 unit bets. Three winners should do better than even money. Four wins connect four separate parlays and net an exciting return. When all five win? Say it with me - we’re diving into a gold doubloon silo like a young Scrooge McDuck!

Who to play

As always, these are five underdogs we like against the spread. Based on a pet peeve - our underdogs performing so well they win outright, we use their moneylines to make up an extra bet, hoping the five ATS games will more than make up for losing the RUMP if three or more fall short of victory.

Steelers (+145) over Ravens

(ATS bet: Steelers +3.5, -114 at BetRivers, Northstar)

Maybe I should have afternoon ESPN shows on more often, but I’ll give NFL Live credit for turning me onto the Steelers’ success against Lamar Jackson. Here’s his career stats against all teams he’s played at least four times:

Tough scene for the Dolphins. Also, how weird is it that Jackson’s faced the Bengals and Browns 12 times, but the Steelers half that? Pile that onto the case that Pittsburgh’s been more than a little lucky over the years.

On top of having a decent idea of how to handle Jackson (likely the coaching-instilled discipline for the pass-rushers to not over-run the play when he’s in the pocket, instead forcing him to scramble sideways), the Steelers also just “practiced” against the closest reasonable facsimile, Jayden Daniels. Pittsburgh held the diet version of Lamar to three carries for five yards, and 50% completion percentage - both well-below his season averages.

Meanwhile, the Steelers are who many (we call them “fools”) thought the Jets were going to be, as they’ve taken an otherwise solid roster - defense, skill-position weapons - and added a competent, veteran quarterback, to become a contender. Russell Wilson (and all-world receiving talent George Pickens) can test a Ravens’ pass defense that’s gone from the best pass defense in 2023 to among the worst.

Pittsburgh gets their chance to strike the first blow in a division race that has us remembering our younger days, and the preparation and personnel to do it.

Colts (+165) over Jets

(ATS bet: Colts +4, -108 at DraftKings)

Speaking of who we thought the Jets were going to be, New York took all kinds of money to flip the favorite before last week’s game in Arizona, pushing their team rating far higher than imaginable after a mediocre win the week before. They then get blown out by the Cardinals, and their rating drops. However, if it was WAY too high in the first place, is a modest drop enough?

Primary takeaway: To put it in context, using last week’s Jets’ market rating, they would be -5 at home against the Colts (even after dropping the Indianapolis rating for losing to Buffalo).

As for the Colts, the season-long story in the mainstream media has been about which quarterback gives Indy the best chance to win, but in betting circles, the debate is how the Colts should be rated with Joe Flacco or Anthony Richardson.

When Flacco was a last-minute starter, the rating went unchanged. When he was announced as the starter early in the week before the Vikings’ game, the rating went way up. In reality, it’s probably a more modest difference, and even more likely, a matchup-centric issue.

The Colts average roughly the same total yardage per game with Flacco as they do with Richardson, but around 100 yards of that go from the passing column to the rushing column with the second-year QB. Against the Jaguars - one of the league’s worst pass defenses - Flacco can look heroic. Against the Texans - a bottom-third run defense - the Colts can be competitive with Richardson and Jonathan Taylor (combining for almost five yards per carry in two games).

Where do the Jets fall in the bi-polar defensive spectrum?

Here’s how opposing tailbacks have recently fared against New York lately:

Cardinals: 25 carries for 117 yards (Kyler Murray added 21 yards on three carries)
Joe Mixon: 24 carries for 107 yards
Najee Harris: 21 carries for 102 yards
Bills (Ray Davis and Ty Johnson): 24 carries for 131 yards

Only the Patriots and Rhamondre Stevenson struggled to generate a ground game, but Drake Maye scrambled for 46 yards and a touchdown. Kyler Murray had two touchdown runs last week, and even CJ Stroud had a career-high 59 yards scrambling.

If Richardson’s return to the starting job means the Colts give him carte blanche to use his best attribute - his running ability, then Indianapolis is live to beat the Jets.

Patriots (+185) over Rams

(ATS bet: Patriots +4.5, -105 at FanDuel)

The dust has settled on the initial excitement about the Rams getting Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back in the lineup, as L.A. showed what a low-end effort looks like for them on Monday night. Matthew Stafford is fun to watch, but the run game is non-explosive (Kyren Williams under long rush, anyone?), a healthy offensive line doesn’t mean a good offensive line, and the pass defense allows more yards per pass than anyone but Dallas. As a result, the Rams net out to about an average team.

In home games against “mid” teams, the Patriots have played the Seahawks to overtime, beat the Jets, and lost by five to the Dolphins in the final game before Drake Maye took over. Convincing losses to the Texans and Jaguars in his first two games had the Pats’ rating depressed, but road games against fellow bad teams in Tennessee and Bears suggest there’s hope.

With the Rams coming across country on a short week, Maye should have his best chance at success against L.A.’s pass defense, giving them a chance to win if the Rams don’t play to the top side of their ability.

Raiders (+280) over Dolphins

(ATS bet: Raiders +7.5, -115 at BetMGM, Sportsinteraction)

There’s a cadre of NFL quarterbacks that will drive you insane. Gardner Minshew is the president of that fraternity, but in any given game, he gives an underdog their best chance to win. Against a good defense, he’s in trouble.

The Dolphins are not a good defense. We tip our cap to Miami for knocking down more than a few passes at the line of scrimmage on Monday night.

Offensively, the first drive was solid, as the opening script was electric on the way to a quick touchdown. The next nine Miami drives produced 163 total yards.

Last season in Miami, when the Dolphins were at their best, and the Raiders at their worst, Las Vegas lost by seven, unable to score in the second half, run the ball (36 yards rushing), or have Aidan O’Connell hit wide-open receivers in crunch time. This year, the Raiders have a professional quarterback starting, a bye week to prepare, and a weaker opponent on a short week.

Las Vegas should be able to stay close, and with any energy and a well-played game from Minshew, they may knock-off a 3-6 team that’s favored by over a touchdown.

Seahawks (+235) over 49ers

(ATS bet: Seahawks +6.5, -108 at FanDuel)

What’s the 49ers’ excuse now?

Christian McCaffrey returned, topping 100 yards from scrimmage. Ricky Pearsall and Jajuan Jennings did more than replace any theoretical loss of Brandon Aiyuk (probably the plan when the 49ers weren’t super-interested in signing him long-term for huge money). Brock Purdy was awesome, and everyone was healthy off of a bye week. They still didn’t separate from a beat-up Bucs team headed into their scheduled vacation. Refusing to move on from an infuriating kicker is a microcosm for some of the details that are being missed, masked by high-end talent and innovative offense.

Maybe the Seahawks will also be out of excuses after this week, but coming off their bye week, all signs point to DK Metcalf being back from a knee injury that kept him out of losses to the Bills (not-so-close) and the Rams (super close). Metcalf changes the Seahawks’ offense, providing a high-end deep threat, opening up the underneath. Geno Smith needs time to find him though, and projected starting tackle, Abraham Lucas was taken off injured reserve this week, prompting Mike Macdonald to say it’s a “reasonable expectation” that he’ll play this week.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks’ defensive line rotation, which is as healthy as they have been all season (now seven deep). Seattle traded for Ernest Jones - who seems a better fit than Jerome Baker in coverage - and they’ll have Riq Woolen to provide more lock-down coverage than they had without him in the first meeting against the 49ers, who moved the ball at will in a game that was closer than the score suggests.