The “RUMP”: Betting five NFL upsets for Week 14

A QB’s return, divisional ‘dogs, pirate booty, and a vibe-check in the Bay Area

Dec 05, 2024

Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.

Last Sunday, five teams that were 3.5-point underdogs or shorter covered their point spread. Almost unbelievably, only two of them pulled off the mini-upset. The Eagles and Steelers won outright, but the Patriots, Cardinals, and Jaguars either blew a late lead or snuck through the backdoor.

The closest thing to a legitimate upset? The Panthers, coughing up a game via an overtime fumble against the Buccaneers. If we’re looking for silver linings (beyond a profitable 3-2 ATS record), Carolina’s choke would have been far more painful if New England and Arizona hadn’t suffered losses in games where they were the better team.

The RUMP Week 13 answer-key:

Only two underdogs won. No path.

For those new to the concept, we’ve coined the acronym RUMP for “Round-robin Underdog Moneyline Parlay.” In exchange for your (assumed) promise to bet everything else advised from THE WINDOW in single wagers, we cook up a NFL lottery ticket here. For more information on how it works and what to expect, check out the breakdown from Week 1.

How it works

Take 1.1 units and split that into 11 bets - one 5-team moneyline parlay and the 10 permutations of 3-team moneyline parlays that those five teams create. At most sportsbooks, you can simply add those five teams to a betting ticket and select 3-leg parlay (10x) to register your 0.1 unit bets. Three winners should do better than even money. Four wins connect four separate parlays and net an exciting return. When all five win? Say it with me - we’re diving into a gold doubloon silo like a young Scrooge McDuck!

Who to play

As always, these are five underdogs we like against the spread. Based on a pet peeve - our underdogs performing so well they win outright, we use their moneylines to make up an extra bet, hoping the five ATS games will more than make up for losing the RUMP if three or more fall short of victory.

Falcons (+210) over Vikings

(ATS bet: Falcons +6, -115 at DraftKings)

Coming out of their bye week, off a back-to-back losses and a blowout in Denver, the Falcons should have brought maximum effort and played to the high-end of their capability - which, admittedly, is maybe just moderately above-average.

Every unit and facet of the Falcons did so, except one - the quarterback.

Atlanta’s much-maligned pass-rush sacked the Chargers five times, holding them to 10 first downs, 4.1 yards per play, and 10 offensive points.
Bijan Robinson ran for 100 yards, and the offensive line allowed just one sack.

However, Kirk Cousins was atrocious - throwing away 13 points (a pick-six and two interceptions in field goal range) that would have been helpful in a game Atlanta lost 17-12.

Is it over for Cousins? The metrics don’t look great, as he’s not throwing with any real velocity and is completely immobile. However, in his return to Minnesota, the market has sold Cousins and the Falcons, rating them as low as they have all season. If there’s anything left in the tank, we should see it from Cousins this Sunday against a team that’s been escaping losses repeatedly.

There’s no guarantee the Vikings finally take a third loss. However, their usual defensive schematic advantages that work really well against young, inexperienced quarterbacks, might be less effective against a veteran, who used to face Brian Flores’ group in practice. Cousins should do a better job than most in diagnosing the blitzes, getting the ball in the hands of his numerous weapons to keep this game inside the number.

Browns (+245) over Steelers

(ATS bet: Browns +6.5, -105 at FanDuel)

When these teams met in Cleveland on that snowy Thursday night, the Steelers were -3.5. Flipping two points per side for home-field advantage, and the line for the rematch in Pittsburgh would be -7.5.

However, before that first game, we assessed the Steelers’ market rating as higher than it had been all season, and wondered aloud if the Browns’ low rating was appropriate with Jameis Winston now the starting quarterback. Then Cleveland won outright.

Add in a surprisingly good showing for the Browns this past Monday night in Denver, and there’s no way we were going to see even +7 for the underdog this Sunday. Bumping up the Browns to even an average team would send this line down to -3.5.

We’ll see whether Jameis Winston’s prayers will work or not, but I’m coming around on the Browns being valuable against the Steelers for a second time this season. As we saw two Thursdays ago, Cleveland’s offense can move the ball against the Steelers, and they’re willing to go for the upset or die trying. Kevin Stefanski still has his team engaged and competitive - something we’re looking for in our December ‘dogs.

Pittsburgh’s coming off a win in Cincinnati, but offense shouldn’t be so easy to come by against the Browns. Meanwhile, the Bengals are taking heat for a defense that allowed 520 total yards, but the Steelers allowed 38 points of their own, and aren’t known for blowing out their opponents.

Cleveland goes back to the recipe of throwing over and over, taking turns between (near-)catastrophe and explosive success, while things aren’t quite as easy for Russell Wilson in a divisional dogfight that could go either way.

Jets (+225) over Dolphins

(ATS bet: Jets +6, -108 at DraftKings)

There’s no one with a lower approval rating than Aaron Rodgers.

Packers fans checked out long ago, Jets fans have ejected throughout this season, and most everyone else is over it all.

The only constituency still buying his charade was the betting market. Last week, oddsmakers finally rated New York as a below-average team, only to see bettors move them from a small home underdog against Seattle to a short favorite.

The Jets blew an early lead, and the oddsmakers went right back to rating the Jets in the low-40s in our estimated market rating system by opening them as near-touchdown underdogs this week. At that level, New York’s a more palatable bet against the right opponent.

The Dolphins might be that team. While they managed four straight wins to revive playoff hopes, Miami showed that nothing’s really changed by taking a sound beating in Green Bay on Thanksgiving night. Despite that, they’re favored in this game at a number similar to recent home games against the Raiders and Patriots.

The Jets aren’t a good team - as the market’s finally acknowledged - but the roster is better than the bottom rung teams that the Dolphins have beaten soundly. Warmer weather may help the 41-year-old quarterback play one of his better games, against a team that’s closer to the Jets in quality than the market now suggests.

Raiders (+245) over Buccaneers

(ATS bet: Raiders +7, -114 at Pinnacle)

What would this point spread have been if Chuba Hubbard hadn’t fumbled in overtime last week?

There were more than a few ways in which Carolina could have beaten the Buccaneers, who struggled to put away the Panthers despite 228 rushing yards on 36 carries from Bucky Irving and Rachaad White.

Carolina’s run defense has been vulnerable all season, but the Raiders are tied for 8th in the NFL in opponent yards per carry, and have allowed just 3.3 YPC in their last three games (Dolphins, Broncos, Chiefs). The Buccaneers’ offensive success may be reliant on Baker Mayfield, whose efficiency has dipped throughout the season.

After posting a quarterback rating of better than 60.0 in four of his first five games, Mayfield’s done so just once (against the Giants) in seven games since, throwing for just two touchdowns in his last three games, and was compromised on Sunday after an injury scare to his right leg.

The Raiders threatened to win in Kansas City last week, as Aidan O’Connell showed some confidence in getting the ball to Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers on a team still playing hard for Antonio Pierce.

If the Bucs are too content after beating a pair of bad teams, this could be a spot where they might not be at their best.

Bears (+165) over 49ers

(ATS bet: Bears +4, -110 at Bet365)

The writing is on the wall in San Francisco.

Deep playoff runs of the last five years - and the aggression with which the 49ers’ stars play - have taken their toll.

Christian McCaffrey joins Brandon Aiyuk sidelined for the season, and if the hope is to reload for next season, there’s little reason to force Trent Williams and Nick Bosa into action.

What’s left is a team that’s a shadow of its former self, whose already lost home games to the Cardinals and Seahawks, division-rivals that should have had the Niners’ full attention but who’ve also been rated right around league-average all season.

Strangely, despite six straight losses, there’s actually more to be hopeful for in Chicago. The Bears have already responded well to addition by subtraction - looking markedly better after a change at offensive coordinator, competing with the three high-quality teams in their division on consecutive weeks. Losing those games against teams that are having better seasons than San Francisco, by a total of seven points, suggests Chicago isn’t that far off.

The firing of Matt Eberflus was an inevitability that should remove some of the tension from a team that’s underachieved, in part, because of how late-game situations were handled by the head coach.

There’s no reason why the Bears shouldn’t play to the high-end of their range - or maybe exceed it, while it’s uncertain where the 49ers’ bottom even is right now.